Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday May 25, 2019 6:50 AM EDT (10:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 359 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Through 7 am..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 359 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast today, then shifts off the southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250837
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
437 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the northeast united states will slide east
southeast and off the coast this afternoon into this evening.

A warm front will lift across the area this evening into early
Sunday morning. A weak cold front will drop across the region
Sunday night into memorial day.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

early this morning, high pressure was centered over the NE u.S.

Providing dry wx under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.

Temps were ranging thru the 60s.

The high will slide ese and off the coast this aftn into this
evening, with low-level flow veering around to the SE or s
around 10 kt. Not as warm today under a partly to mostly sunny
sky. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s over the lower
md and va ERN shore (upper 60s immediate md atlc coast), to the
mid to upper 80s farther inland piedmont. Should remain dry thru
this aftn, with soundings appearing well-capped for much of
today over the area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

this evening into early Sun morning, a warm front will lift acrs
the area, providing enough energy moisture lift to produce
isolated to sctd showers tstms over the region. As a result,
will have 15-30% pops. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to around 70.

Sun will likely be the hottest day of the spring thus far.

Surface high pressure slides well off the SE coast, as low
pressure moves thru the ohio valley. Meanwhile, the SE upper
ridge will slide into position across the SE coast up into the
mid atlc region. This will result in w-sw low-level flow
locking, which will help boost high temps into the lower to mid
90s inland piedmont, with mid 80s to around 90 over the ern
shore. Low-levels should remain well mixed, and therefore while
a hot day is expected, heat indices are expected to remain near
the air temp. Models indicate more energy moisture lift in wnw
flow aloft in advance of and associated with a cold front,
pushing acrs mostly NRN and ERN areas later Sun aftn into early
mon morning. So, again will have 15-30% pops in these locations.

Lows Sun night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

That cold front will push well SE of the CWA during mon, with
sfc winds nne over the area. Not as warm and slightly less humid
for memorial day, with highs ranging thru the 80s to around 90.

Just a slight chc for a shower or tstm.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 315 pm edt Friday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through at least
next Thursday. An upper level anticyclone remains centered
along the gulf coast Monday night before becoming centered over
fl as upper ridging amplifies over the western atlantic by
midweek. A potent shortwave then tracks through the NRN great
lakes late next week as an upper low remains centered INVOF the
hudson bay. Our region will be under the influence of w-nw flow
aloft thru Tuesday, then SW flow aloft wed-thu. Staying dry
through at least Wed night as we will be under the influence of
ssw flow at the sfc and rising h5 heights. Wednesday also looks
to be the hottest day next week as h85 temps rise to 20-22c with
deep-layered SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front is progged to cross the region from late thu-thu
night as the aforementioned upper shortwave tracks through the
nrn great lakes. Isolated-scattered showers tstms will accompany
the FROPA thu-thu night. Have added a slight chc-chc of
showers tstms from 12z thu-12z Fri to account for this (pops no
higher than 30% for now).

Lows through the period in the 60s to low 70s, except some mid 70s
possible Wed night. Highs Tue from the mid-upper 80s over the
ern shore to the low-mid 90s inland. Forecast highs on Wed are
in the upper 80s to low 90s on the ERN shore to the mid 90s
inland. Highs still in the upper 80s on the ERN shore to the
low-mid 90s inland on thu. Slightly cooler on Fri with highs in
the 80s area-wide.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 230 am edt Saturday...

vfr conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru
this aftn, as high pressure over the NE u.S. Shifts ese and off
the coast. Light E winds will become SE or S and increase to
around 10 kt this aftn. Shortwave energy in westerly flow aloft
will help to trigger isolated to sctd showers or tstms that will
slide acrs the area this evening into early Sun morning. For
now, have no mention of pcpn in any of the tafs since pop is
15-30%. Otherwise, mainlyVFR conditions are expected today into
sun.

Outlook:
mainlyVFR conditions expected thru the holiday weekend. But,
there is a low prob of convection at the terminals Sun aftn thru
mon.

Marine
As of 350 am edt Saturday...

a relatively quiet forecast for the next several days, although a
series of weak fronts will bring changing wind directions. This
morning, winds are easterly in the wake of a weak front that pushed
south of the area last evening. High pressure is currently located n
of the local area and is progged to move SE and setlle off the mid-
atlantic coast by this afternoon. With low pressure moving through
the great lakes, the boundary will push back N as a warm front this
evening. Pressure gradient will increase and conditions will be
close to SCA thresholds this evening for the bay. Since it will
be marginal, have decided to not issue any SCA headlines, but a
period of 20 kt gusts from the S SE is likely for a few hours this
evening. Waves will be 1-2 ft for most of today, building to 2-3 ft
tonight, with coastal seas around 2 ft, building to 3-4 ft by
tonight. Winds shift to the SW overnight an diminish to around 10 kt
by early Sunday, then become wnw at less than 10 kt on Sunday
(potentially leading to variable wind directions Sun aftn). Another
(weak) front drops through Sun night into mon, with winds then
becoming NW Sun night, and veering to the NE for memorial day. Some
modestly cooler air in the wake of this front but not enough for
winds much more than 10-15 kt. Winds then turn back around to the s
mon night though Tue wed.

Climate
A record high of 96 was set at elizabeth city (ecg) earlier
today (5 24), breaking the old record of 95 set in 2011. Rer has
been sent.

* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
As of 245 am edt Saturday...

kakq 88d radar is offline due to a transmitter error. Technicians
are awaiting parts for needed repairs. No return to service time
is available. See ftmakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Mam tmg
long term... Eri
aviation... Tmg
marine... Lkb rhr
climate... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi50 min ESE 11 G 12 70°F 1021.5 hPa (+2.4)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi50 min ESE 8 G 8.9 71°F 75°F1020.8 hPa (+2.6)
44072 6 mi50 min 69°F 72°F1 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi50 min E 9.9 G 13 70°F 1020.2 hPa (+2.3)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi50 min E 6 G 8.9 71°F 1021.3 hPa (+2.4)
44087 17 mi50 min 71°F1 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi50 min 73°F1021 hPa (+2.5)
CHBV2 19 mi50 min E 12 G 15 68°F 1020 hPa (+1.9)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi50 min E 5.1 G 6 70°F
44064 20 mi50 min E 14 G 16 69°F 71°F1 ft1020.6 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi50 min E 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 1020.8 hPa (+2.5)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 22 mi50 min 70°F 78°F1021.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi44 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 73°F1019 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi50 min E 13 G 15 68°F 1020.7 hPa (+1.9)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 76°F1020.6 hPa (+2.3)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi50 min E 6 G 8.9 1022.1 hPa (+1.8)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi50 min 69°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi50 min E 5.1 G 6 65°F 73°F1021.1 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F59°F84%1021 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi54 minESE 510.00 miFair67°F58°F73%1021.6 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi1.9 hrsE 50.25 miFair with Haze70°F60°F73%1019.6 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi1.9 hrsE 410.00 miFair68°F57°F68%1020.5 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair68°F62°F83%1021 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi59 minE 410.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W13
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NW10N6E745N8E9E9E8NE4E3CalmE3CalmN4CalmCalmNE8E6Calm
1 day agoS7S9S10SW13SW14SW13SW13SW15
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2 days agoNE7E10E10NE9E10E9E10NE7NE7SE9SE8E9E6E5E5E3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:51 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.12.32.321.71.20.80.50.40.60.91.31.722.121.71.30.90.70.50.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Perrin River, York River, Virginia
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Perrin River
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.12.42.42.21.81.30.90.50.40.50.81.31.722.22.11.81.410.60.50.60.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.