Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 4:00 AM   Moonset 5:36 PM

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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 349 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Through 7 pm - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - W winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Fri - W winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - NW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 349 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front stalls just north of the area into Tuesday. Various low pressure systems will pass by through mid-week creating chances for showers and storms. Outside of any Thunderstorms, marine conditions are expected to remain benign through at least early Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through on Friday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 062004 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe weather, especially mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Late this aftn, sctd showers and tstms were developing over wrn and cntrl portions of the area, due to the combination of a sfc trough, shortwave energy and increasing MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/Kg.
Dew points were also in the mid to upper 60s across the region, with temps ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

This shortwave energy/trough will push across the area this evening into early Tue morning, resulting in showers/tstms spreading ewrd to the coast. Given the moisture profile (PWATs 1.5"-2.0"), heavy rain will be a good bet in heavier showers or storms. This, combined with portions of the area receiving 1-2" of rain in the last couple of days, has justified placement of a marginal ERO over most of VA (W of the Bay) and inland NE NC.
Showers/storms will taper off or end after midnight tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern Shore. Mild again tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee trough and the approach of a cold front, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tue through Thu. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warmer conditions are expected for Tue and Wed, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to around 90 Wed. Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the 80s. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure presence of instability all three days. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tue, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tue. The flow aloft then turns back to the WSW for Wed and strengthens, which will allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thu, as flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thu has the potential for the highest coverage of severe storms this week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Showers/tstms will exit out to sea Thu night, as a cold front pushes to the coast. Then, a secondary front and upper trough will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing the chance for more showers. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Fri mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight to small chance of showers (isolated thunder) for Sat aftn through Sun. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Just below normal to normal temps expected for Sat through Mon. Highs will be in the lower 70s Sat, in the lower to mid 70s Sun, and in the mid to upper 70s Mon.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

MVFR to VFR CIGs were prevailing at the TAF sites this aftn, with VCSH mentioned in all TAF sites expect SBY until 20-21z.
Sctd showers and tstms will affect all TAF sites from later this aftn through this evening. Heavy rain may impact VSBYs at times, with mainly VFR or MVFR CIGs . Winds will be mainly SSW 5-10 kt this aftn into Tue aftn, with a few higher gusts possible in any stronger storms through this evening. CIGs will become lower MVFR or IFR tonight into Tue morning, then improve to mainly VFR by Tue aftn.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Surface high pressure continues to move further offshore this afternoon, while a stalled frontal boundary remains just north of the local waters. Current conditions are rather benign with west/southwesterly winds around 8-12kt. Waves are 1 foot or less with seas of 2-3ft. This trend looks to persist through Wednesday with winds from the south-southeast to southwest around 10kt. There may be occasional gusts to 20kt keeping conditions below SCA criteria. However, there will be chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, which could produce erratic, strong wind gusts over the waters. Otherwise, southwest winds will gradually increase some ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Models differ in the expected speeds/overall pattern, but will keep an eye on the potential for SCA conditions at least across the Bay Friday/Friday night as winds turn northwesterly behind the front.
Rain/storm chances continue through the remainder of the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head)
will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay - due mostly to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as we approach the new moon phase.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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York Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:25 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Perrin River
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:27 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Perrin River, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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