Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 5:06 AM   Moonset 8:07 PM

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ANZ636 York River- 158 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
This afternoon - W winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and tstms early, then a chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Fri - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 158 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just north of the area. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through Thursday. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through Friday into Friday evening.

FXUS61 KAKQ 081925 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 325 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 2:30 PM Wed...Diurnal cu has developed across the CWA but only some light returns on radar have been observed so far today. Surface analysis shows a west/east oriented stationary boundary across TN as well as lee troughing across VA and the Piedmont. The environment is primed to support strong to severe storms with latest RAP analysis showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 45+ kt of deep layer shear. The lacking ingredient for the next few hours, however, is forcing. CAMs are showing clusters of storms developing this evening and moving southeast. Any of these storms could become strong to severe with the main concerns being severe gusts and hail. We'll have a break in the showers and storms is late tonight but PoPs will increase again as we get closer to sunrise as a decaying MCS approaches from the west.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 3 PM Wed...The remnants of a decaying MCS will move through the area Thursday morning and produce scattered showers and storms. The threat for storms to become strong to severe remains on the table, mainly south of I64, given 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 45-50 kt of deep layer shear, and mid-level lapse rates slightly greater than 7 C/km. SPC has the entire CWA under a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather with the main hazard of concern being damaging wind gusts. PoPs will then start to die off as we approach the evening hours. Highs will reach nearly 90 across the southern half of the FA with the northern half remaining closer to 80.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the model agreement is improved compared to yesterday's 12Z runs.
The main weather maker will be yet another shortwave dropping SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday.
This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC.
The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the lower MS/TN Valley. Temps will be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon-Tue (highs mid/upper 70s).

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 PM Wed...Pred VFR through the period, although increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening could result in periods of gusty winds and reduced VIS and CIGs .

Outlook...Active pattern on Thu with at least a chc for showers/storm all day (even in the morning). Some strong storms will be possible. Drying out from W to E Thu evening, then VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers/isolated tstms redeveloping Fri aftn into Fri evening. Mainly dry Sat, but another chc for showers Sat night into Sunday.

MARINE
As of 3 PM Wed...The main feature of note during the period will be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening through tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt out of the southwest until tomorrow afternoon when they start to back to the east. Waves will be 1-3 ft through the period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal flooding on tonight's high tide cycle. Water levels along bay- facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effort for these areas. Locations along and adjacent to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere, nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be impactful enough for additional statements.

CLIMATE
Record highs for today May 8th:

* RIC: 92 (1936)
* ORF: 95 (1880)
* SBY: 93 (1936)
* ECG: 91 (2010)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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York Point
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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