Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:15PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:08 AM EDT (04:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 5:57PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 1020 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain late in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening...then showers in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1020 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure lifts northeast off the coast overnight. Weak high pressure prevails Wednesday. A warm front lifts over the waters Wednesday night as a trailing cold front pushes offshore Thursday. High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240244
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1044 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A potent low pressure system will track along a stationary
frontal boundary through midnight, before pushing offshore
overnight. Weak high pressure prevails Wednesday. Unsettled
conditions return Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper level
trough approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Latest surface analysis shows ~1005mb sfc low pressure over
northeastern nc near ecg at 03z. Quasi-stationary boundary
extends SW to NE from east central nc to the northern outer
banks (pgv to ecg). Numerous perturbations on GOES wv imagery
moving along the front early this evening, with radar mosaic
showing swath of heaviest showers moving NE from hampton roads
up to the lower eastern shore. Another batch of showers was
noted pushing along just east of the front across the coastal
carolinas.

Have updated pops, with only minor changes per latest trends.

Categorical pops through 06z over the east taper off from w-e
late tonight as the primary forcing pushes offshore. Remaining
cloudy with some patchy fog expected once again across the
piedmont. Low temperatures range from the upper 50s N NW to the
low mid 60s se.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
A vigorous upper low gradually drops sewd through the mid-
mississippi valley late tonight through Wednesday. Some
semblance of shortwave ridging develops over the mid-atlantic
late tonight through much of the day Wednesday due to the
combination of a departing shortwave trough and the upper low
digging to the w. Therefore, pops drop below 15% for a roughly
12hr period. Lower clouds will struggle to erode despite some
mid-level drying as the surface pressure gradient will be rather
nebulous resulting in weak low-level flow. The best chc for any
partial clearing will be across the md ERN shore. High
temperatures will average 70-75f (highest se).

The upper low digs into the tennessee valley with yet another
shortwave trough lifting nne across the carolinas and mid-
atlantic Wednesday evening through the early overnight hours. A
secondary wave lifts nne across the blue ridge late Wednesday
evening through the overnight hours. Pops quickly ramp up to
categorical across the SW piedmont early Wednesday evening and
spreading NE into central SE va late evening through the early
overnight hours, before shifting to the ERN shore after
midnight. Mid-level drying and subsidence will result in pops
quickly diminishing from sw-ne late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. There is a chc of thunderstorms across mainly
the SRN third of the area. 500mb flow strengthens to 40- 50kt
across SE va NE nc and the presence of a surface warm front will
result in a veering low-level wind field. However, forecast
soundings depict a stable layer below 950mb, so it may be
difficult to get surface based convection and at this time the
severe weather threat is low (spc has the SE counties in a
marginal, 5% risk). Additional QPF Wednesday night averages
0.4-0.6".

The upper low finally begins to lift NE across the mountains
Thursday. A strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-
atlantic during the afternoon early evening. Once again pops
increase, to ~60% from the piedmont to central va to the md ern
shore, with 40-50% farther se. 500mb flow of 45-55kt is expected
along with modest instability. Therefore, a few stronger to
marginally storms are possible. The main threat would be wind
and hail as low-level shear is minimal. Additional QPF Thursday
aftn evening should average ~0.25" with locally higher amounts.

High temperatures range from the mid 70s to around 80 after
morning lows ranging through the 60s.

The upper low continues to lift NE across pa ny new england
late Thursday night into Friday. Drier conditions finally arrive
as deep layered wnw flow develops over the region. Some
lingering mid-level energy could result in some sct-bkn cu
Friday aftn. Otherwise, drier and breezy with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s, after morning lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast Saturday as an
upper level low tracks into the great lakes region. Weak area of
surface high pressure slides off the mid-atlantic coast
Saturday as a warm front lifts through the region. Weak
perturbations in fast westerly flow aloft will result in low end
chance pops Saturday afternoon for showers and thunderstorms.

Otherwise, warming trend continues with highs in the low to mid
80's. The warm front locates stalls over the northern mid-
atlantic region Saturday night, resulting in continued chances
for showers thunderstorms over the northern local area as
perturbations in the westerly flow track across the region. The
upper low slowly pushes across the great lakes region Sunday
with an associated cold front progged to reach the central
appalachians late Sunday. Pressure falls ahead of the
approaching front will induce a lee side thermal trough over the
region and better chances for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday generally in the mid 80's. The cold
front reaches the local area Monday, but is expected to stall
over the region as subtropical high pressure strengthens off the
southeast coast. The weak front remains over the eastern local
area through Tuesday, with chances for diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid
80's.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
A frontal boundary will remain just to the southeast of the
area with waves of low pressure moving along it. An area of rain
will move across the area through early Wednesday morning.

Widespread ifr ceilings will prevail this evening and overnight.

With northeast winds and plenty of moisture remaining...

ceilings will only improve slightly on Wednesday. Visibilities
will lower to ifr in heavier precipitation but otherwise should
be MVFR and improve toVFR on Wednesday morning. Winds will
generally be from the northeast and east and may veer toward
southeast on Wednesday at around 10 knots or less.

Outlook... Other rounds of showers are expected Wednesday into
early Thursday morning and again late Thursday. Aviation
conditions will likely be impacted through Thursday night. Dry
weather returns Friday as weak high pressure builds over the
region. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend when another
frontal boundary affects the mid atlantic states.

Marine
Latest surface analysis depicts weak area of high pressure
centered just offshore the delmarva, with an area of low
pressure over georgia. A quasi-stationary boundary was located
along the southeast coast. The result is a east to northeast
wind of 10-20 knots over the waters. Few gusts to around 20-25
knots observed in the mouth of the bay and adjacent coastal
waters. Seas generally 3-4 feet and waves 2-3 feet. Low pressure
progged to lift along the boundary into northeast north
carolina and southeast virginia this evening. Pressure falls
ahead of the low in tandem with increasing gradient winds will
result in a period of 15-25 knot onshore winds over the waters.

Nam guidance continues to be on the stronger side, indicating
near gale conditions near the mouth of the bay and in the lower
bay. Believe this is too aggressive as the hi-res guidance
doesn't back the NAM up. Have opted for a GFS cmc solution,
resulting in a period of SCA conditions in the bay, sound,
coastal waters, and lower james river through late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Seas build to 4-7 feet (highest north) with
waves of 2-4 feet. Waves in the lower james build to 2-3 feet.

The low pushes offshore late tonight early Wednesday morning
with flow becoming north to northwest. SCA conditions expected
to linger in the bay through late morning early afternoon, with
seas diminishing through Wednesday afternoon. Another area of
low pressure lifts into the ohio valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night as a meso-low lifts along the appalachians. Sca
conditions are anticipated again Wednesday night over the bay
and coastal waters with speeds of 15-25 knots and seas building
to 3-5 feet.

Southwest flow increases Thursday as the low lifts north of the
region, with speeds of 10-20 knots expected. SCA conditions
could again be possible Thursday night as the low tracks off the
northeast coast.

Tides coastal flooding
A period of onshore flow and higher astro tides (moving toward a
new moon) will result in elevated water levels through Wednesday
night. Many tidal sites will reach action stage during this
evenings overnights high tide cycle. Coastal flood statements
have been issued for the upper james and areas around bishops
head, maryland. Low pressure lifts over the region tonight, with
onshore flow ramping up. However, the low is expected during
periods of low tide. Lower astro tides are expected Wednesday
morning. Higher levels are forecast Wednesday evening night,
with minor flooding possible along the the bay, james river,
and atlantic waters.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Wednesday for anz630>632-
634.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for anz633-638-
656-658.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for anz650-652-
654.

Synopsis... Ajz jdm
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Ajz
long term... Sam
aviation... Lsa
marine... Sam
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi51 min ENE 16 G 19 63°F 1004.1 hPa
44072 6 mi49 min ENE 16 G 19 62°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi51 min WSW 1.9 G 7 63°F 69°F1004.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi51 min NE 17 G 20 62°F 1004.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi51 min NE 6 G 9.9 62°F 1005 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi51 min 68°F1005.1 hPa
44064 20 mi49 min 19 G 25 62°F 1003.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi51 min ENE 9.9 G 14 66°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 21 mi51 min NE 21 G 25 61°F 63°F1003.5 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 22 mi49 min N 3.9 G 5.8 62°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi51 min NE 12 G 16 63°F 1004.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi99 min NE 2.9 62°F 1007 hPa61°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi49 min E 18 G 21 62°F 1005.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi51 min NE 24 G 28 60°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi57 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 62°F 68°F1004.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi51 min NE 16 G 18 1005.5 hPa
44096 32 mi48 min 62°F4 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi57 min 62°F4 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi51 min NE 17 G 21 59°F 65°F1005 hPa

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi11 minENE 1310.00 miLight Rain61°F61°F100%1005.4 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi15 minNE 710.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F93%1005.1 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi11 minENE 58.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F94%1004.7 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi70 minENE 142.00 miRain Fog/Mist63°F60°F90%1005.1 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi14 minN 02.50 miMostly Cloudy63°F62°F100%1005.4 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi18 minENE 74.00 miRain Fog/Mist60°F60°F100%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7NE7NE6NE9E12E13E10E9E9E14E13E17E14NE13NE11NE13NE15NE9NE13
1 day agoE5S3CalmCalmCalmS4S4SW5SW5CalmSW5S3S4NE8NE5SE8N11
G16
--NW7N5W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE13NE12NE11NE13NE13E11E10E5E9NE11E11E12E10E10E9E10E10----E7E7E8E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:32 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:23 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:35 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.2-0.2-0.20.20.91.62.32.62.62.21.50.80.2-0.2-0.20.10.91.72.53.13.22.92.3

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:39 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:33 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:43 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:54 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.3-0.1-0.10.10.71.42.12.52.52.21.610.3-0.1-0.20.10.71.52.32.93.12.92.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.