Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:54PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:25 AM EST (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:41AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 503 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Monday morning...
Through 7 am..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt... Becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely late.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers late in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 503 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves away from the carolina coasts today. A very strong and fast moving cold front crosses the waters Sunday morning. High pressure returns for early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180915
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
415 am est Sat nov 18 2017

High pressure slides offshore this morning, ahead of a cold
front approaching the region from the west. The cold front
moves across the area late tonight into Sunday morning,
producing scattered showers.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Latest surface analysis features ~1021mb surface high pressure
centered over the virginia and carolina coastal plain early this
morning. To the west, a large, positively-tilted upper trough
continues to drop across the central plains missouri river
valley this morning, with the surface low centered over mo at

Quiet benign weather lingers through the first part of the day,
as surface high pressure nudges offshore, with resultant low-
level return flow increasing around the offshore high.

Tightening pressure gradient due to the approaching front will
allow for breezy conditions through the afternoon with gusts of
25 to 35 mph (highest immediate coast and eastern shore). Took
down forecast highs slightly, but still expect temps to rebound
nicely W compressional warming and out ahead of the
approaching cold front. Highs today into the mid upper 60s se
zones... Upper 50a to mid 60s farther inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Surface low will lift across the eastern great lakes toward
southern quebec tonight into Sunday morning. Trailing cold front
will push across the area after midnight tonight, reaching the
coast around just after dawn Sunday morning. Ahead of the front,
expect quick dewpoint surge as the warm front lifts across the
area Sat aftn night. Low level s-sw flow quickly increasing pw
values into the 1"-1.25" range after 00z sun.

Still anticipate a quick-moving band of showers along and ahead
of the cold front just after midnight out in the piedmont,
reaching the coast by Sunday morning. Aforementioned increasing
pw, along with a narrow axis of low-level convergence forcing,
will lead to a broken line of scattered to numerous showers
through the overnight period. Accordingly, have pushed pop into
high end likely categorical range, highest over western
sections. CAPE is nearly nil through this period, some have
again held thunder wording out.

Breezy conditions persist through the night. H92-850 winds
increase to 40-50 kt as gradient tightens just ahead of the
front. Expect strongest winds to be within a few hours of
frontal passage as subsidence behind the departing boundary
mixes down some of that wind. A wind advisory was considered but
has not been issued with this package, with winds likely to be
just below criteria. That said, expect a small window of windy
conditions Sunday morning (especially north), with blustery and
chilly conditions continuing through Sunday. Temperatures
remain mild tonight before dropping off late tonight.

Temperatures struggle to rise Sunday morning, aided in small
measure by clear sky and sunshine, but remain steady drop off
Sunday aftenroon. Winds diminish late afternoon as the gradient
slackens. Cooler with highs in the 50s... To near 60 SE coast.

One last surge of wind possible with another passing
disturbance Sunday night. Blustery conditions ease through the
night as cool sfc high pressure centered over the tn valley
expands east into the mid-atlantic late Sunday and Monday. We
can expect a clear sky and below normal temperatures. Lows
Sunday night in the mid upr 20s piedmont to the mid upr 30s
coast. Highs Monday in the upr 40s to low 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
High pressure moves offshore of the region during the day on Tuesday
allowing for a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s and lows fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
inland (mid to upper 40s at the coast). Temperatures remain near
normal during the day on Wednesday before a mainly dry cold front
crosses the area Wednesday late afternoon evening. Introduced a
slight chance of pops with the passage of the front, but moisture
appears fairly limited at this time. A cooler airmass moves into the
region for thanksgiving and the end of the work week behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for thanksgiving
day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into
the lower 30s away from the coast. An offshore trough develops on
Friday which will bring a chance of rain for coastal areas.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions across area terminals will persist through the
06z TAF period. Surface high pressure over the mid-atlantic
coast will slide offshore through this afternoon. Clouds will
gradually thicken lower this afternoon and tonight as a strong
cold front approaches the region through tonight. Winds will be
gusty ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, gusting out of the
southwest between 20-25kt.

Outlook: the cold front crosses the area late tonight into
Sunday morning, with the possibility of some short-lived MVFR
ceilings with sct numerous rain showers with the frontal
passage. Llws will be a concern tonight into Sunday morning
just ahead of the front, 35-45kt at 2kft agl. Winds quickly
swing around to the w-nw post-frontal and will be highest
within a few hours of frontal passage, but will remain gusty
through Sunday. High pressure builds back over the local area
Sunday morning, allowing for a return toVFR conditions through
the remainder of the weekend. High pressure gradually slides
off the southeast coast Monday and Tuesday withVFR conditions

Tides coastal flooding
Gusty SW winds may push a few areas into the action stage during
Saturdays high tide cycle. Appears bishops head will approach
minor flooding thresholds then.

Kdox remains down until further notice due to pedestal fault.

Updates will be provided here and in ftmdox as they become

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Monday for anz633-635>638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am est
Monday for anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Monday for

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est this
evening for anz656-658.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Jdm mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Bmd
tides coastal flooding...


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi56 min WSW 1 34°F 1018 hPa32°F
44096 32 mi35 min 58°F2 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi26 min 60°F2 ft

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi30 minSSW 610.00 miFair39°F33°F80%1019 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi32 minSSW 610.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1018.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi28 minS 610.00 miFair42°F33°F72%1017.6 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi87 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds38°F32°F79%1018.9 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi31 minS 610.00 miFair43°F35°F76%1018.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi35 minSSW 510.00 miFair36°F32°F86%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW5NW4NW7N17
1 day ago22SW8W8W8W10W9W10NW8
2 days agoNW4N6N7N10N8N10N10N9N9--N7422CalmCalmCalm6416413

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
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Sat -- 02:29 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:43 AM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:15 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
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Sat -- 02:36 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:14 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:05 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.