Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquoson, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:53PM Friday August 18, 2017 5:45 PM EDT (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 1:54AMMoonset 4:31PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 354 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Through 7 pm..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening, then showers and tstms likely late in the evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 354 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight and then stall near the mid atlantic coast through Saturday night. High pressure rebuilds over the area Sunday into early next week. NExt cold front expected to impact the region Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquoson, VA
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location: 37.2, -76.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 182024
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
424 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm and humid air mass remains in place across the mid-
atlantic states this evening, but a cold front will arrive late
tonight and exit the region by Saturday afternoon. High
pressure builds in for Saturday night through early next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Hot and humid air mass is place across the region this afternoon
with many locations seeing heat indices in the 105 - 110 range
and a few higher than that. A cold front, that stretches from
central pa southward into the mountains of eastern west virginia
and western north carolina, will slowly push eastward tonight
and is expected to generate some showers and storms. Some of the
high resolution models blow up a very solid line of convection
along with the 12z nam. The 12z GFS and ECMWF are less bullish
and have a more scattered to broken line of convection. For now
have increase pops a touch across northern portions of the cwa
where the lift is more organized and keep pops slightly slower
further to the south. There is a svr tstorm watch until 01z in
effect for the md portion of the delmarva. This is closer to the
better forcing and wind damage would be the biggest threat from
these storms as the directional shear is weak and the wind flow
aloft is only around 15 to 30 kts. The other hazard is the
potential for very heavy rain as precipitable water values are
over 2".

The front will slowly push sewd overnight and should be over the
va tidewater and NE nc by 12z Saturday. The threat for heavy
rain will continue through about 6z when the forcing really
weakens and the front sags toward southern and southeastern va
and the axis of higher moisture gets pushed off the coast. So
expect to see the chances for rain gradually diminish during the
overnight hours.

For temperatures, another warm muggy night can be expected this
evening with most areas remaining in the mid to upper 70s

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
The models are still struggling on how much push is there to
get the front through the region on Saturday. With a strong
shortwave trough digging through the ohio valley, it makes sense
that the front will temporarily stall waiting for the shortwave
trough to move past. This should allow the front to finally get
south of the area and off the coast by Saturday evening. So
have kept a low chance for showers and afternoon storms over ne
nc and the tidewater area on Saturday.

High pressure builds into the area on Saturday night into Sunday
and lingers through Monday. Temperatures will be a couple
degrees cooler, but the humidity will be much less making for
more comfortable conditions.

For temperatures, highs on Saturday will still be in the upper
80s to the lower 90s and that will continue on Sunday and
Monday. But overnight lows Saturday night and Sunday night will
be cooler with readings in the upper 60s NW to low to mid 70s
se.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Sfc high pressure builds north of the area with stacked high
pressure residing off the southeast coast through Mon night. A
thermal trough develops in the lee of the appalachians for
tue Tue night, and then a cold front is expected to track
through the area on wed... Exiting the coast Thu morning.

Conditions will become increasingly more humid ahead of the
front. Thunderstorm activity expected to become widely scattered
tue as convection develops INVOF lee trough. The frontal passage
wed Wed night will provide a better focus for more organized
thunderstorms to occur. Lingering showers storms possible far
se va NE nc on thu. Otherwise, cool canadian high pressure
builds across the midwest with dry conditions anticipated for
the mid atlantic region Thu night-fri night.

Highs tue-wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s
beaches. Highs Thu Fri low-mid 80s; mid-upper 70s beaches.

Lows mon-tue nights generally 70-75f. Lows Wed night
mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75f se. Lows Thu Fri nights around
60f NW to around 70f se.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
Early morning stratus has burned off with CU developing across
much of the region at 18z. Developing showers tstms SE of korf
should move offshore before 1830z, but have included vcsh there
in the 18z-19z time frame. Radar suggests tstms SE of kecg will
remain far enough SE of the terminal to not be an issue, but
will continue to closely monitor.

A cold front approaching the region this afternoon evening will
initiate shower TSTM development W NW of the area by 21z, then
moving E ese into the region through 03z. The potential for
MVFR ifr conditions exists as tstms will produce heavy
rainfall, but uncertainty of exact timing precludes adding too
much specificity to the 18z tafs. Have added vcts to kphf korf
since hi-res model guidance suggests decent TSTM potential both
terminals after 01z. Expect precipitation to wane after 08z,
leaving generallyVFR conditions for the remainder of the taf
period.

Outlook:VFR conditions returns later Saturday through the
weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. Some
early morning fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Marine
A cold front approaches the region through this evening with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a weak
boundary along the mid atlantic coast. Winds generally south
10-15kt the rest of today with locally higher gusts of 20-30kt
possible in thunderstorms. The front crosses the waters late
tonight with more widespread and organized thunderstorms
anticipated. Strong wind gusts above 30kt, heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning will be the primary impacts. Seas 2-3ft build
to 3-4ft this evening and during the frontal passage later
tonight... Subsiding closer to daybreak Sat morning. Waves will
average 1-3ft through tonight. Synoptic SCA conditions still not
anticipated tonight except with the thunderstorms associated
with the front. If any headlines are necessary, they can be
handled with short- fused mws or smw products.

Winds light and variable AOB 10kt by mid-morning Sat through sun
as the front stalls near the mid atlantic coast. Winds become
more onshore Sun night into Mon as the front sags well south of
the area. Seas subsiding from 2-3ft Sat aftn to 2ft by late sat
night through most of Tuesday. South winds Tue tue night as a
thermal trough develops inland with seas building to 2-3ft
tue 3-4ft Tue night. Winds SW around 15kt bay ocean
tue night Wed as the next cold front is expected to cross the
region. Seas waves average 2-3ft. Winds n-ne AOB 15kt behind
front Thu fri. Seas 2-3ft waves 1-2ft.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding is expected for areas adjacent to ches
bay INVOF bishops head late this evening. Water levels should
reach 3.5ft around high tide, which occurs at 1136 pm this
evening. Cambridge is expected to reach 3.1ft, thus remaining
below minor flooding thresholds.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Saturday for mdz021>023.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz013>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz084-089-090-
093-095>098-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ess
near term... Ess
short term... Ess
long term... Bmd
aviation... Mam wrs
marine... Bmd
tides coastal flooding... Bmd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 4 mi45 min SSE 20 G 23 83°F 1009.9 hPa (-1.4)
44072 6 mi35 min SSE 18 G 21 83°F 2 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 13 91°F 82°F1009.1 hPa (-1.4)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 16 mi45 min E 5.1 G 13 84°F 1009.8 hPa (-1.2)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 17 mi45 min SW 8 G 11 88°F 1009.9 hPa (-1.1)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 18 mi45 min 82°F1009.8 hPa (-1.1)
44064 20 mi35 min 83°F 3 ft1009.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi45 min SSE 20 G 23 84°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 21 mi45 min E 19 G 22 81°F 78°F1009.9 hPa (-1.0)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 22 mi45 min SSW 12 G 17 91°F 1009.7 hPa (-1.0)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 22 mi35 min SSW 9.7 G 14
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 23 mi135 min SE 1.9 93°F 1011 hPa79°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi35 min SSW 18 G 21 84°F 2 ft1009.7 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi45 min SE 16 G 19 82°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 29 mi45 min S 8.9 G 15 89°F 82°F1010 hPa (-0.7)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 30 mi45 min S 19 G 21 1010.1 hPa (-1.6)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi45 min 80°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi45 min SSW 17 G 23 85°F 86°F1009.8 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Langley Air Force Base, VA8 mi1.8 hrsSSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds92°F77°F64%1010.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi51 minSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds93°F77°F60%1009.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA14 mi1.8 hrsSSW 610.00 miFair94°F79°F64%1009.4 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA19 mi1.8 hrsSW 79.00 miPartly Cloudy95°F77°F56%1010.1 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA19 mi70 minSW 510.00 miFair95°F78°F60%1010.2 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA23 mi54 minSSW 15 G 2010.00 miOvercast93°F78°F62%1009.4 hPa

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE7SE6S8S8S9S10S10S8S10S10S11S12S9S10SW13SW10SW9S10S8SW9SW8SW12SW14
1 day agoSE7S4SE3SE4SE3SE4S4S3S5SW5SW5SW3SW4CalmCalmSW3S4S5S5SE7E9SE9SE6SE8
2 days agoE11E7CalmCalmW3S3NW4CalmCalmNW4NW5NW4NW7NW4N7N9N9N6N6NE6E7NE8E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:06 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.40.91.52.12.42.42.11.61.10.50.20.10.30.91.62.32.832.92.51.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown USCG Training Center, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown USCG Training Center
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:52 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:41 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:06 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.40.81.41.92.32.42.21.71.20.60.30.20.40.81.52.22.832.82.41.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.