Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:08 AM   Moonset 12:45 PM

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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 105 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.Fri - NW winds 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 105 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak cold front will continue to drop just south of the area. High pressure briefly builds in behind the front through Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast.

FXUS61 KAKQ 020550 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 150 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and very warm conditions are expected today as high pressure builds over the region. A backdoor cold front pushes inland on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 AM EDT Thursday...

Cooler early this morning with lows dropping into the 50s to the lower 60s Areas of shallow ground fog are expected to form across the eastern shore, Hampton Roads/NE NC. Additional more patchy fog is possible in and south of the RIC metro/Tri-cities area early this morning. Overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Dry and very warm weather is expected today as the upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US. After some early morning fog, skies become mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 for inland locations (potentially lower 90s in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s as an onshore wind develops. Mild/dry tonight with lows around 60s (mid to upper 50s Eastern Shore).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure builds SSE over New England Friday, which will push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place, but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances increase across western portions of the forecast area late Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend as a series of disturbances cross the area. A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it will affect the region Saturday into Sunday night, bringing a good chance of showers and a few tstms (tstms primarily well inland) across the entire area.
Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temperatures cooler Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid to upper 70s SSW. Highs Sunday will generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday, but there will be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 145 AM Thursday...

The main focus of the 06z TAF period will be the potential for patchy/shallow fog early this morning, with the greatest coverage across far SE VA into NE NC. IFR VSBYs remain in the forecast for ORF and ECG, with slightly less confidence for IFR VSBYs at PHF and SBY. Latest models have backed off on the fog further to the NW, with RIC primarily staying VFR (cannot rule out some patchy MVFR fog ~10-12z). Due to the shallow nature of the moisture, combined with an early May sun angle, the fog should rapidly burn off by an hour or two after sunrise. The remainder of the forecast period will feature mostly clear/sunny skies and VFR conditions. Winds become SSW 5-10 knots this afternoon.

Outlook: Primarily dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are possible once again along the coast early Friday as another backdoor cold front slides through the area. There is chance for showers and a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday night through Sunday with the next front, with diminishing shower/tstm chances by Monday.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through at least early Friday.

- Marginal SCA-level northeast winds and seas are possible behind a backdoor cold front Friday into Saturday.

Mainly quiet weather across the marine area this afternoon. One exception is over NE NC where scattered thunderstorms have developed in associated w/ a weakening front. Expect these storms to gradually drop S into this evening. While severe wx is not expected, frequent lightning and gusty winds of 30-35 kt are possible. These storms should stay confined to the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of the NC/VA border. Otherwise, winds are northerly and rather light (10 kt or less) behind the front. Seas are running 2-3 ft w/ waves 1 ft or less in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds become S/SSW tonight into Thursday with high pressure moving offshore. A backdoor cold front is expected to move in from the NE Friday morning, turning the flow onshore through most of Friday and Saturday. Models now agree on a period of 15-20 kt winds for most of the marine area initially behind the front Fri aftn and then possibly again Sat aftn as the pressure gradient re-tightens. Wind probabilities have increased during this period, especially over the ocean, and a marginal small craft advisory may eventually be needed. Seas could also inch up to 3-5 ft during this period. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 2-3 ft. High pressure situates offshore again later Sun into Mon w/ southerly winds returning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Jamestown Island
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Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Island, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Hog Point
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Thu -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hog Point, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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