Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:46 AM   Moonset 2:07 PM

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FXUS63 KSGF 032307 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast and south central MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight.

- Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. Rainfall during this period may be between 1 and 3 inches which may lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure over northern Missouri was helping to make for a nice day across the region though cloud cover remained across the region. A few showers or isolated storms were lingering across portions of south central Missouri where a lingering frontal boundary from an earlier front remained. This activity may continue through early evening but will dissipate quickly near and after dark. No severe weather is expected with this activity.

A storm system associated with a cold front will approach the region overnight into Saturday morning. This frontal boundary will begin to push into far southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks around sunrise Saturday morning. the region is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather with this system.
Expectations are that the line of strong to severe storms will move into the region with a potential weakening trend as low level and upper level winds will be rather weak, though instability looks to be from 1000-2500 j/kg thanks to a warm airmass and southerly winds. However, hail to quarters in size and damaging winds will be possible. some additional storms may develop and linger into the afternoon and evening but should transition to showers during the evening. Rainfall will also be a concern with wet antecedent conditions leading to potential local flooding.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A rather active pattern remains in the forecast for the next week with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall through the end of next week.

Sunday: In the wake of the storms on Saturday, a surface/middle level shortwave or low will slide north across the southern plains and over the region. this will bring additional showers and storms to the region, though current indication suggest that this period would be below severe limits. The continued rain chances may lead to flooding concerns which will be the theme for the next 7 days.

Monday - Tuesday: A strongly negatively tilted upper trough will move across the plains and swing a strongly forecast cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Ozarks will be in the warm sector ahead of this system with some models indicating as much as 3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE in advance of the front with mid level (40-50kt) and upper level jet support. The combination of instability and shear will bring the chance for severe weather to the region as a result through Tuesday morning.

Once storms push through the region, a warm front will quickly lift back to the north through the Ozarks as low pressure develops in the plains.

Wednesday- Friday: Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues the potential for additional severe storms for the middle of next week. The indications for Thursday and Friday are rather uncertain as the multiple rounds of storms a changing upper level pattern limits rain chances.

With the multiple days where rain is possible wide spread 1 to 3 inch rain amounts will be possible through the forecast period.
This may lead to at least localized flooding for areas that have already seen ample rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Clouds will continue to thin at the start of the TAF period.
Areas of fog will likely develop again late tonight across portions of south-central Missouri, so have added reduced visibilities to the BBG TAF after 10Z.

A line of showers and thunderstorms across Kansas is expected to weaken as it moves east into Missouri in the early morning hours, though will reintensify in the afternoon and may impact the SGF and BBG sites in particular.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period.

Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period.

CLIMATE
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A warm airmass will be in place across the region for the middle of next week. This may allow overnight low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights to remain warm and approach record warm minimum temperatures.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.

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