Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO
May 15, 2024 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 11:56 AM Moonset 1:21 AM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 152338 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 638 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight through Thursday morning (60-90% chance). A slight risk for a few severe storms overnight west of I-49. Marginal risk for severe storms across the area Thursday. Additional rain chances Thursday night through Friday (60-90% chance).
- Total rainfall amounts tonight through Friday range between 0.5 to 2 inches with the highest totals west of Springfield.
Localized flooding may occur across the area.
- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week with near record temperatures Monday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows the area in a weak mid level ridge within an overall active pattern with several shortwaves across the northern and western US. Remnant showers from overnight activity across Kansas and Oklahoma has attempted to push into the area from the west this morning however drier/stable air in the mid levels (as seen on the 12z KSGF sounding) has evaporated most of this activity. Low level moisture remains present with dews around 60 and scattered cumulus across the area. Temps have climbed into the lower 70s across the area.
This afternoon through the evening: Have inserted some low precip chances (10-20 percent) west of Springfield for this afternoon to account for the weakening precip. Otherwise a pleasant afternoon and evening is expected.
Overnight into Thursday: As shortwave energy ejects into Kansas this evening, it will interact with a frontal boundary and an increasing low level jet to develop a cluster or two of thunderstorms across the southern half of Kansas (especially near the Wichita area). These storms will likely be severe given the favorable CAPE/Shear combination. Latest HRRR data shows an elevated MU CAPE gradient from roughly Wichita to Joplin to northwest Arkansas with much lower instability north of this line. Therefore this complex of thunderstorms will likely move into southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri after 10pm along/near this gradient. This cluster of storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail up to the size of quarters, especially west of I-49. Most high res guidance suggests an overall weakening trend as these storms move east, away from the higher instability that will remain south of the area. However sometimes models weaken these storms too quickly if they have a well established cold pool therefore areas between I-49 and Highway 65 will still need to monitor these storms after midnight.
Latest HRRR precip amounts for overnight into early Thursday morning shows that far southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri may pick up a quick 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with this cluster of storms. This could produce localized flooding given recent rains.
Going into Thursday morning, models are trending toward a solution where the morning cluster of storms will be weakening with an embedded MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) and attendant outflow boundary moving through the area. Therefore highest rain chances are in the morning with this feature.
Typically once an MCV moves through there is a time period of subsidence/inhibition therefore thunderstorm development in the afternoon is uncertain and will be tied to the exact location of the remnant MCV. The airmass does appear to become unstable during the afternoon therefore any remaining lift could set off isolated to scattered storms. Currently the highest chances for this are along and south of a Branson to Rolla line with large hail and damaging winds if any storms can develop. Have kept precip chances around 30 percent for areas further northwest incase any other development occurs. High temps will be variable depending on clouds however most areas should warm into the 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Thursday Night - Friday: A low level jet will develop south of the area with showers and thunderstorms developing across northern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. This is also due to a upper level low moving through Oklahoma. Southern Missouri looks to be on the north side of this rain shield overnight into Friday morning with rain chances in the 60-80% range. While no severe weather is expected with this activity, there will be pockets of locally heavy rainfall as PW values reach 1.5in.
Therefore localized flooding is a concern south of I-44. Latest trends have also slowed down this upper low as it moves into Arkansas therefore rain chances look to persist through most of Friday with some decrease by the evening hours. Clouds and precip will likely keep temps down further on Friday and may have to knock down temps further in later updates. Rainfall amounts on Friday look to remain less than an inch as it will be more showery in nature.
The Weekend: Ensembles are in good agreement that mid level height rises and warmer air aloft will move into the area. 850mb temps look to climb into the 18-22C range by Sunday. Latest NBM data suggests lower 80s for highs Saturday with middle 80s on Sunday. Precip chances over the weekend look to remain less than 20 percent.
Next Week: Even warmer air aloft looks to move in as the ridge builds further into the area. There is the potential for near record high temps on Monday as 850mb temps reach 21-23C. NBM percentiles continue show the potential for locations to reach 90 on Monday depending on cloud cover. See climate section below for details. By Tuesday and Wednesday, shortwave energy will be approaching the central US which will break down the ridge and allow for thunderstorm chances to return. There is still a decent amount of model variability however EURO EFI Shift of Tails tool, CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning guidance suggests a pattern conducive to severe weather somewhere across the central US therefore another active pattern may emerge by the middle of next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR ceilings for the remainder of today before a storm system begins to push in from KS/OK after midnight. Expect MVFR ceilings with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall and some storms becoming severe. Thunderstorms will persist through the morning. There will be a break in the rain for the early afternoon, then storms have potential to fire up again in the early evening.
CLIMATE
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Record High Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964
May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 71/1902
May 21: KSGF: 70/1902
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 638 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight through Thursday morning (60-90% chance). A slight risk for a few severe storms overnight west of I-49. Marginal risk for severe storms across the area Thursday. Additional rain chances Thursday night through Friday (60-90% chance).
- Total rainfall amounts tonight through Friday range between 0.5 to 2 inches with the highest totals west of Springfield.
Localized flooding may occur across the area.
- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week with near record temperatures Monday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows the area in a weak mid level ridge within an overall active pattern with several shortwaves across the northern and western US. Remnant showers from overnight activity across Kansas and Oklahoma has attempted to push into the area from the west this morning however drier/stable air in the mid levels (as seen on the 12z KSGF sounding) has evaporated most of this activity. Low level moisture remains present with dews around 60 and scattered cumulus across the area. Temps have climbed into the lower 70s across the area.
This afternoon through the evening: Have inserted some low precip chances (10-20 percent) west of Springfield for this afternoon to account for the weakening precip. Otherwise a pleasant afternoon and evening is expected.
Overnight into Thursday: As shortwave energy ejects into Kansas this evening, it will interact with a frontal boundary and an increasing low level jet to develop a cluster or two of thunderstorms across the southern half of Kansas (especially near the Wichita area). These storms will likely be severe given the favorable CAPE/Shear combination. Latest HRRR data shows an elevated MU CAPE gradient from roughly Wichita to Joplin to northwest Arkansas with much lower instability north of this line. Therefore this complex of thunderstorms will likely move into southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri after 10pm along/near this gradient. This cluster of storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail up to the size of quarters, especially west of I-49. Most high res guidance suggests an overall weakening trend as these storms move east, away from the higher instability that will remain south of the area. However sometimes models weaken these storms too quickly if they have a well established cold pool therefore areas between I-49 and Highway 65 will still need to monitor these storms after midnight.
Latest HRRR precip amounts for overnight into early Thursday morning shows that far southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri may pick up a quick 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with this cluster of storms. This could produce localized flooding given recent rains.
Going into Thursday morning, models are trending toward a solution where the morning cluster of storms will be weakening with an embedded MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) and attendant outflow boundary moving through the area. Therefore highest rain chances are in the morning with this feature.
Typically once an MCV moves through there is a time period of subsidence/inhibition therefore thunderstorm development in the afternoon is uncertain and will be tied to the exact location of the remnant MCV. The airmass does appear to become unstable during the afternoon therefore any remaining lift could set off isolated to scattered storms. Currently the highest chances for this are along and south of a Branson to Rolla line with large hail and damaging winds if any storms can develop. Have kept precip chances around 30 percent for areas further northwest incase any other development occurs. High temps will be variable depending on clouds however most areas should warm into the 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Thursday Night - Friday: A low level jet will develop south of the area with showers and thunderstorms developing across northern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. This is also due to a upper level low moving through Oklahoma. Southern Missouri looks to be on the north side of this rain shield overnight into Friday morning with rain chances in the 60-80% range. While no severe weather is expected with this activity, there will be pockets of locally heavy rainfall as PW values reach 1.5in.
Therefore localized flooding is a concern south of I-44. Latest trends have also slowed down this upper low as it moves into Arkansas therefore rain chances look to persist through most of Friday with some decrease by the evening hours. Clouds and precip will likely keep temps down further on Friday and may have to knock down temps further in later updates. Rainfall amounts on Friday look to remain less than an inch as it will be more showery in nature.
The Weekend: Ensembles are in good agreement that mid level height rises and warmer air aloft will move into the area. 850mb temps look to climb into the 18-22C range by Sunday. Latest NBM data suggests lower 80s for highs Saturday with middle 80s on Sunday. Precip chances over the weekend look to remain less than 20 percent.
Next Week: Even warmer air aloft looks to move in as the ridge builds further into the area. There is the potential for near record high temps on Monday as 850mb temps reach 21-23C. NBM percentiles continue show the potential for locations to reach 90 on Monday depending on cloud cover. See climate section below for details. By Tuesday and Wednesday, shortwave energy will be approaching the central US which will break down the ridge and allow for thunderstorm chances to return. There is still a decent amount of model variability however EURO EFI Shift of Tails tool, CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning guidance suggests a pattern conducive to severe weather somewhere across the central US therefore another active pattern may emerge by the middle of next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR ceilings for the remainder of today before a storm system begins to push in from KS/OK after midnight. Expect MVFR ceilings with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall and some storms becoming severe. Thunderstorms will persist through the morning. There will be a break in the rain for the early afternoon, then storms have potential to fire up again in the early evening.
CLIMATE
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Record High Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964
May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 71/1902
May 21: KSGF: 70/1902
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSGF SPRINGFIELDBRANSON NATIONAL,MO | 6 sm | 68 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 61°F | 69% | 29.85 |
Springfield, MO,
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