Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 1:39 AM   Moonset 11:42 AM

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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 837 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening - ..small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night - .
Tonight - NW winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots - . Diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 17 seconds. Thu - NW winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 17 seconds. Thu night - NW winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 16 seconds. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 9 seconds. Fri night - NW winds 15 to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Sat - SW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves around 2 ft. SWell sw around 2 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of rain. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Sun - NW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft and sw around 2 ft. Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft and sw 2 to 3 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 837 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
strong winds are expected to continue through Friday, with gale force gusts of 40 to 45 knots possible. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 12 to 16 feet in the outer waters. Conditions gradually improve over the weekend and into next week as winds begin to ease. Rain chances begin early Saturday as a trough descends over the region.

FXUS66 KMTR 020519 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1019 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 107 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

A ridge of high pressure will keep conditions mild to warm across the region throughout late week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures cooler near the coast. Wet, unsettled conditions returning Friday night into Saturday, much cooler inland Saturday.
Unseasonably cool daytime highs continuing into early next week then gradually warming by the middle of the week.

UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

A fairly gusty day across the Bay Area and Central Coast with a few coastal and higher elevation sites seeing gusts between 30-35 mph.
Gusty winds look to continue through the weekend with stronger winds extending farther into inland valleys beginning Saturday as a low pressure system moves inland. HRRR continues to suggest minimal cloud cover overnight with only few to scattered high level clouds possible. Warm, dry conditions to continue through the end of the week with highs in the mid to upper 70's inland tomorrow and upper 50's to lower 60's along the coast. Guidance continues to indicate that light precipitation is possible this weekend.

Overall forecast remains on track.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 107 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry weather conditions prevail tonight with temperatures falling into the mid-to-upper 40's to lower 50's regionwide. Only expecting low clouds near the Monterey Peninsula, if at all, as dry conditions remain aloft. By sunrise, any low clouds that do develop with quickly dissipate.

Thursday will see stronger northerly winds out over the ocean, peaks near the coast, and inland higher terrain with gusts up to 45 mph (gale force out over the ocean). Temperatures will likely reach the 60's near the coast with mid-to-upper 70's to near 80F inland.
Again, clear sky conditions are expected to persist.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry Thursday and Friday, increasing clouds Friday night with rain developing over the North Bay, rain spreading southeastward across much of the rest of the forecast area Saturday. It'll turn noticeably cooler especially inland Saturday with daytime highs Saturday 10F to 18F cooler inland compared to Friday's forecast highs.

In the last 12-24 hours global and mesoscale models are more in line focusing on the arrival of a cold core low pressure system from the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands arriving in northern California Friday night and Saturday. The southeastward trajectory takes it across cooler than normal sea surface temperatures (negative phase PDO)
at least somewhat minimizing maritime thermal modification along the way and for maintenance/development it'll travel through a long wave trough on the West Coast. The low will brush by and tap higher levels of water vapor extending far north of Hawaii, however the low is forecast to move through our forecast area retaining a strong mid-latitude influence. Recent precipitable water values on the GFS have been 1.00" to 1.10" for Saturday, not far from the max moving average on Oakland upper air sounding climatology in early May.
Model forecast rainfall amounts vary from 0.25" to 0.70" North Bay, 0.15"-0.25" low elevations to 0.40" hills/mountains elsewhere across the Bay Area to around 0.10" interior north Central Coast to 0.33" Big Sur Coast. Wet and cooler weather Saturday, gusty northwest winds over the coast temporarily subsiding with the passage of a surface cold front/trough. Dry weather returns Sunday. The surface pressure pattern looks favorable for gusty northwest winds redeveloping over the coastal waters beginning next Tuesday. Daytime highs gradually warming by the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally VFR into Thursday, with breezy northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots developing Thursday afternoon. Some LLWS concerns, chiefly in the North and East Bays, through the night into Thursday morning. Expect stratus to fill towards and at the immediate coastline through Thursday evening, as a trough approaches the region.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. West-northwest winds diminishing through the night, then building again on Thursday with gusts to 30 knots. A low confidence (20-30% probability) that wind gusts exceed 35 knots at the terminal. Model output shows some stratus streaming through the Golden Gate and San Bruno Gap, but confidence is low, with OAK and SJC having slightly higher probabilities for MVFR-IFR ceilings.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through Thursday afternoon, with westerly winds building on Thursday, gusting to 25 knots. IFR-LIFR stratus builds at the coast and across the Monterey Bay region Thursday evening.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 850 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024

Strong winds are expected to continue through Friday, with gale force gusts of 40 to 45 knots possible. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 12 to 16 feet in the outer waters. Conditions gradually improve over the weekend and into next week as winds begin to ease. Rain chances begin early Saturday as a trough descends over the region.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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Gold Street Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM PDT     3.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:39 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:25 AM PDT     8.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:41 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:50 PM PDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM PDT     7.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gold Street Bridge, Alviso Slough, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:17 AM PDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:55 AM PDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:42 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:46 PM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:43 PM PDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dumbarton Point 2.3 mi NE, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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