Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:46PM Friday February 15, 2019 10:58 PM EST (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 949 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain until late afternoon. Snow likely in the late morning and early afternoon, then a chance of rain and snow late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ600 949 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the area tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure tracks east across north carolina Saturday, then off the coast by Saturday evening. Another low pressure area approaches from the southwest Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near York, VA
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location: 37.23, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 160242
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
942 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the area then stalls out across north
carolina late tonight while low pressure approaches from the
southwest. The low tracks east across north carolina Saturday,
then off the coast Saturday evening. Another low pressure area
approaches from the southwest Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 940 pm est Friday...

cold front about to enter far wnw locations in the fa. SW winds
are keeping conditions mild... But a signifcant change (to
colder) begins after midnight by late tonight as the front
pushes E and s. CIGS will continue to lower over the next
few several hours as weak lo pres tracks along the front through
the tn valley overnight. No pcpn noted on local nearby sfc
obs... Expecting -ra to begin mainly sw-ne after midnight. Lows
from the m-u30s N and W to the m40s in NE nc.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 355 pm est Friday...

latest 12z 15 model data filtering in continues to support
high chance likely pops N to categorical pops south on sat.

Still appears that this event will be one that will require
high precipitation intensity for accumulating snow to take
place. With the heaviest precipitation focused to the south
closer to the track of the sfc low across central southern nc, best
chance for some changeover to mainly snow will be across
central va where sfc temperatures would initially be in the
upper 30s to lower 40s at 12z, then would potentially fall
several degrees through the mid late morning hrs. Did depict
this in the grids, but still do not anticipate temperatures
falling to 32 f or colder. Thus, accumulating snow will tend to
be less than one inch unless a very definitive band is able to
organize and overcome the warmer airmass. Road temperatures will
be well above freezing due to warm temperatures today tonight so
impact will likely be minimal. Mainly all rain or a rain to
snow mixture elsewhere with no accumulation. If an area of all
snow does verify, still expect temperatures to rise a few
degrees after the snow ends during the aftn as the intensity
diminishes. Highs will be in the upper 40s SE to around 40 f
north, but with that potential of falling into the 30s during
the highest precip intensity (even over the south where it stays
all rain).

Mostly cldy with some lingering lt rain across sern zones sat
eve, then dry with some partial clrg across the north as high
pressure builds into the area. Lows upr 20s north to mid 30s se.

High pressure retreats Sun morning with some light moisture
returning during the aftn ahead of the next system approaching
from the wsw. Kept all pcpn in liquid form as it is not expected
to arrive until late morning or early aftn. Highs around 40 f
nw to upr 40s- lwr 50s se.

A secondary wave of moisture overspreads the area Sun night
with chc pops north and likely pops central south. Lows mid 30s
north to mid 40s south. This wave pushes off the coast mon
morning with pcpn tapering off west to east and skies expected
to become partly sunny. Milder with highs mainly in the 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm est Friday...

persistent active pattern to continue across the CONUS through
the extended forecast period... W a deep trough remaining over
the wrn CONUS and a weak upper ridge nearly stationary invof
srn fl. This synoptic pattern will result in a strong SW flow
originating SW of SRN ca (over the pacific) to the ERN conus
coast. A series of systems will travel quickly sw-e next
week... Bringing continued high prob for wet wx. The first system
will be Tue night-wed night... Potentially initially starting out
as a wintry mix over N and NW areas... Otw ra expected. Another
system is forecast to arrive Thu night then exit fri... Again w
a prob for a wintry mix N and NW areas (at the start).

Temperatures will average close to normal through the period.

Lows Mon night from the u20s-around 30f N to the u30s se. Highs
tue mainly in the m-u40s. Lows Tue night in the l30s N to around
40f far se. Highs Wed from the l40s N and NW to the m50s in ne
nc. Lows Wed night in the l-m30s N and NW to the u40s along
coastal NE nc. Highs Thu around 50s near the bay ocean and on
the ERN shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Thu night in the
l-m30s N and NW to 40-45f se. Highs Fri in the m40s N to 50-55f
s.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 630 pm est Friday...

sw winds continuing to slowly decrease ahead of cold front approaching
from the w. That front will be crossing the fa overnight W winds
swinging to NE averaging 10-20 kt through sat.VFR conditions persist
now... But will have gradually lowering CIGS through 04-08z 16.

MVFR-ifr CIGS for all TAF by Sat morning as mainly -ra spreads
into the region. Mixed ra sn or a period of sn likely ric sby sat
morning... Through about 17-19z 16... Ra elsewhere. Pcpn winds down end
by late Sat afternoon early evening. Slow improvement late Sat sat
night. Pattern remains active through early next week. Periodic
ifr conditions are likely throughout this time frame. Next low pres
will move across the area late Sun sun night then a second system
tue night-wed.

Marine
As of 330 pm est Friday...

a cold front is approaching the region from the west as of this
afternoon leading to breezy conditions, mainly over the land. Cold
water temperatures (generally in the low to mid 40s) in combination
with warm SW flow is leading to poor mixing over the waters, thus
winds are generally around 15 knots over the waters. Locally higher
wind gusts to 25 knots will be possible right along the shoreline
through this evening. SCA remains in effect north of chincoteague
through this evening mainly due to seas of 5 feet out 20 nm.

The cold front will continue to drop south over the waters tonight
into Saturday morning, turning winds from SW to nne around 15 knots,
and up to 20 knots south of CAPE charles, over the lower bay, and
currituck sound as low pressure moves ene along the stalled cold
front. Went ahead and added the lower bay and lower james into the
sca as model guidance has trended higher with wind gusts across this
region as the low pressure passes to the south. Seas will build to 4
to 5 feet south and perhaps up to 6 feet. Seas 2 to 4 feet north and
waves in the bay 2 to 3 feet. Unsettled pattern then brings another
low pressure system through the area by late Sun or Mon and again by
midweek. Scas may again be possible around wed.

Equipment
Akq radar is down due to a broken part that is on order and
expected to arrive sat. Ftm and usos sent.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz632-
634.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 10 pm est Saturday for
anz633.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Saturday for anz638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Saturday to 4 am est Sunday
for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz650.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Alb cp
marine... Ajb
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 1 mi58 min SW 5.1 G 8 62°F 45°F1007.3 hPa (+0.6)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi58 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 57°F 1008.3 hPa (+0.7)
44072 13 mi48 min 54°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 17 mi88 min Calm 59°F 1008 hPa47°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 19 mi58 min WSW 7 G 7 55°F 1008.2 hPa (+0.6)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 20 mi58 min SW 13 G 13 61°F 1007.2 hPa (+0.6)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 22 mi58 min 47°F1007.8 hPa (+0.5)
44087 23 mi58 min 45°F1 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 25 mi58 min SW 5.1 G 7 63°F 1007.6 hPa (+0.4)
CHBV2 26 mi64 min WSW 13 G 14 59°F 1006.6 hPa
44064 27 mi48 min W 7.8 G 7.8 55°F 1007.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi58 min WSW 6 G 8 44°F
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 33 mi64 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 49°F1007.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi58 min SSW 14 G 15 1008 hPa (+0.3)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi58 min SW 6 G 8.9 64°F 1006.4 hPa (+0.5)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 47 mi58 min 45°F3 ft

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi64 minSW 610.00 miOvercast59°F48°F67%1007.8 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA9 mi2 hrsSW 410.00 miFair61°F48°F63%1006.7 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA11 mi83 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F50°F64%1008.1 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA13 mi2 hrsSW 610.00 miFair62°F48°F61%1007.7 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi2 hrsSW 710.00 miOvercast63°F48°F58%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W5W5W5SW5W4W5W3SW4SW3NW33--CalmS7CalmCalmE8SE8SE6SE11S11S13S10
G18
2 days agoW5SW4W7SW8W12W13W12
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W9W7SW6SW6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Yorktown, York River, Virginia
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Yorktown
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:17 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:02 AM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:34 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.41.92.32.52.321.50.90.40.20.10.40.81.31.721.91.71.20.60.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for SW Branch, Severn River, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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SW Branch
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:17 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:49 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:34 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:15 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.91.52.12.52.62.421.50.90.40.20.10.40.91.41.82.121.71.20.60.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.