Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Claremont, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday April 25, 2019 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:17AMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 720 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers this evening. A slight chance of showers late.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 720 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A warm front will slowly lift north across the area through tonight. A strong cold front crosses the region late Friday. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday, with another area of low pressure passing by to the north on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Claremont, VA
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location: 37.23, -76.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 252330
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
730 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift north across the area this
evening and overnight. A strong cold front crosses the region
late Friday. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday,
with another area of low pressure passing by to the north on
Sunday.

Near term through Friday
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

latest analysis indicating a weak sfc trough of low pressure and
the associated sfc boundary over southern va with a ridge of
high pressure aloft situated off the SE coast. The pressure
gradient has been rather weak today and areas of SE va near the
coast have seen winds turn onshore with the seabreeze (effectively
shunting the sfc front to the S for a few hrs this aftn). This
is making for a sharp temperature gradient at the immediate
coast (readings in lower-mid 70s at korf kphf with mid to upper
80s for interior southern va and NE nc). Elsewhere, temperatures
are mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some low clouds are
starting to develop over portions of the eastern shore and
temperatures there have dropped off into the 60s (and koxb may
fall into the 50s into early this evening). As the front lifts
n later this evening and overnight, several of the cams
developing at least widely scattered showers over much of the
region between 00z and 04z, then shifting more N of the area
after that. Have included pops up to 30-40% over the northern
areas and ~20% into southern va (keeping it dry across NE nc).

Very warm tonight with lows mostly from 60-65 f (except in the
50s on the eastern shore). Pops increase from the west late as
increasing moisture surges north into the piedmont as the cold
front from the west gets closer to the cwa.

For fri, the main issue will be with the potential for severe wx
as a strong cold front pushes across the area during the
aftn early evening hrs. Overall, the 12z models today are in
better agreement regarding the timing of the front and
associated pops and severe wx potential. Latest SPC day 2
outlook now has the entire CWA into a slight risk for severe
with wind damage the primary threat. The pattern features a
strong upper low centered over canada, but with strong
shortwave energy rotating south through the tn valley and across
the carolinas by aftn. There will be some backing of the low
level winds to a near due south direction, with strong SW winds
in the h85 to h7 layer. Thus, shear will be impressive though
certainly not to the extent of last Friday's event. Instability
will tend to be modest given a decent coverage of
showers isolated tstms through the morning hrs (though most of
the guidances suggest a few hrs with a lull during the mid late
morning early aftn). While an isolated tornado will be possible,
the main threat will be straight line winds, primarily from
early aftn through early evening (will mention this in the hwo).

Overall, with slightly higher temperatures and instability,
think areas of SE va NE nc have the greatest risk for severe wx
even though the entire CWA is in a slight risk. Highs around 70
f NW to the upper 70s around 80 f far se.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

the front clears the coast shortly after 00z sat, taking most
pcpn with it. Evening pops most areas with lingering shower chc
along the coast through midnite. Otw, decreasing clouds west
and turning cooler. Lows Fri night lower 40s NW to mid 50s
se.

High pressure builds into the sern states Sat behind the departing
low. Mostly sunny with lower humidity. Highs mid-upr 60s near the
water, lwr 70s inland. Mstly clr Sat eve with increasing clouds
after midnite. Lows in the 50s. Weak system passing by N of the
area will bring a period of more clouds and a 20% pop to nrn
areas early Sunday. Highs in the 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

decent CAA will move into the area Sunday afternoon behind a cold
front. With high pressure moving in, most inland locations will drop
into the mid 40s by Monday morning. High pressure will move off the
coast Monday and winds will turn out of the south. A frontal
boundary will stall just north of the area wed-fri. A few waves of
low pressure will move along the boundary bring a chance of rain and
showers, mostly north of the cwa. With the uncertainty of the
location of the boundary, slight pops (20-30%) were added with iso
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Current forecast has high in the low
80s each day and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
As of 730 pm edt Thursday...

mainlyVFR conditions prevail ATTM W a frontal boundary
situated over SRN va. That boundary will move N as a warm front
tonight W isold shras possible. Winds are ssw over NE nc and
far SRN va... While ene near the SE va coast and on the eastern
shore. The winds will gradually become more southerly all areas
later tonight early fri... Then increase and become gusty to ~25
kt by late Fri morning. Shras tstms are likely on Fri w
confidence is high enough to include prevailing shras at all
sites by afternoon. The greatest probability for significant
flight restrictions (ifr MVFR) will be from 18z 26 through
around 00z 27 as a cold front crosses the fa. Strong gusty winds
will be possible in any TSTM during this period as well.

Vfr dry W hi pres returning Sat along W gusty wnw winds.

MainlyVFR conditions continue Sun mon.

Marine
As of 350 pm edt Thursday...

a warm front is currently located just south of a majority of the
waters. North of this boundary winds are generally out of the east
around 10 knots. South of this boundary over the southern coastal
waters, winds are out of the south at around 10 to 15 knots. The
warm front gradually lifts north this evening and overnight, turning
the winds to the S and SW by early Friday morning for all of the
waters. Meanwhile, low pressure and the associated cold front will
approach the region tonight into Friday before crossing the region
Friday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this front, SW winds will be
on the increase, becoming 15 to 25 knots over a majority of the
waters by the afternoon hours. As a result, a small craft advisory
is now in effect for all of the waters beginning Friday late morning
and continuing through Saturday. In addition to the breezy
conditions out ahead of the front, a line of showers and
thunderstorms (some strong to severe) will develop and cross the
waters by Friday evening. These storms may produce damaging wind
gusts and special marine warnings may be needed Friday evening into
the overnight hours.

The front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday morning with
winds shifting to the W and NW behind the boundary. Winds will
increase late Friday and remain gusty through much of the day on
Saturday. Wind gusts to 30 knots will likely be common, especially
during the Friday overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Winds
may briefly gust to 35 knots over the northern most coastal waters
early Saturday morning, however these will likely be brief and
confined to mainly out 20 nm, thus no gale headlines at this time.

Expect a slow diminishing trend in winds from south to north through
the day Saturday as low pressure departs and high pressure builds
back over the southeastern states. All small craft advisories should
be allowed to expire by Saturday evening.

Sub-sca conditions are expected late Saturday into Sunday with high
pressure influencing the weather pattern. A weak disturbance passes
to the north of the region during the day on Sunday, dragging
another cold front across the region. This may bring another period
of SCA conditions Sunday into Monday with winds turning to the nw
behind the front. Calmer marine conditions are anticipated for next
week.

In additions to the gusty conditions Friday evening into Saturday,
waves seas will also be on the increase. Seas build to 4 to 7 feet
with seas as high as 8 feet across the north and out 20 nm. Waves in
the bay build to around 3 to 4 feet. Seas diminish through the day
on Saturday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm Friday to 4 pm edt Saturday for
anz635>637-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 4 pm edt Saturday
for anz630>632-634-638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 1 pm edt Saturday
for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Friday to 1 pm edt Saturday for
anz656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Cp
aviation... Alb lkb mpr
marine... Ajb tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 25 mi36 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 64°F1009.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 32 mi36 min ENE 8.9 G 8.9 66°F 1010.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 33 mi36 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 72°F 1010.4 hPa
44072 36 mi46 min 65°F
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 38 mi36 min 65°F1010.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 38 mi42 min NE 7 G 8 68°F 1009.3 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 40 mi36 min NE 7 G 7 69°F 1010 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 43 mi48 min NE 7.8 G 7.8 64°F 65°F1008.5 hPa
44087 45 mi66 min 64°F1 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 46 mi42 min NNE 4.1 G 6 73°F 69°F1009.8 hPa
44064 48 mi56 min N 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 1009.8 hPa
CHBV2 48 mi42 min N 8 G 8.9 65°F 1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA12 mi11 minN 010.00 miFair72°F64°F78%1010.5 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA17 mi12 minN 06.00 miFair with Haze75°F66°F74%1009.9 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA19 mi70 minENE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F63°F71%1009.8 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA22 mi31 minENE 6 miFair67°F60°F79%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE3CalmSE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6S6S5S6S5SW4SW5
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SW7W5SW5W4W7W5W7W5W7W10W7NW7
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CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmNW3NW5W6W5W4S5SE8SW4S7S9S5SW7S4

Tide / Current Tables for Claremont, James River, Virginia
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Claremont
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:19 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.91.41.71.91.81.61.310.70.40.30.30.611.31.61.61.51.20.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sturgeon Point, James River, Virginia
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Sturgeon Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.40.81.31.82.12.221.81.410.60.40.30.50.91.31.71.91.81.61.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.