Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Water, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:14PM Sunday February 17, 2019 6:42 PM MST (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 5:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Water, UT
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location: 37.24, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 172252
afdslc
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
352 pm mst Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Cool temperatures and occasional snow showers will linger through
the weekend and into early next week as broad troughing continues
across the west. A stronger storm system may impact the state
late next week.

Short term (through 00z Thursday)
Interior west trough will reload tonight as the next system of
note drops into the desert southwest. Height falls will remain
mainly south of utah, where most of the synoptic precipitation is
expected.

A second area of focus in the near term is associate with a mid-
level circulation center not far from wendover. The areal extent
and potential to impact travel on i-80 and near dugway led us to
issue a winter weather advisory for that area tonight into
tomorrow morning. Accumulating snow may expand east to near
tooele which will have to be watched closely by the next shift.

Road impacts would likely start at sunset due to the warm roadways
this afternoon.

Could see some enhanced easterly canyon winds along the wasatch
late tonight into tomorrow morning due to a strong pressure
gradient from wyoming, and weak easterly 700mb cold advection. The
gradient becomes northerly Monday and will support gusty north
winds across much of western utah into Tuesday.

Surface low near the grand canyon at sunrise looks to make its way
toward the four corners by sunset tomorrow. This will make it a
close call as far as expansion of snow north into utah from kanab
east-northeast across the glen canyon recreation area. It will
remain cold enough that if a shower passes over dixie that it will
likely be snow. Due to warm roads and soils, it would have to be
heavy for even brief transportation impacts to develop. A better
chance of impacts at a higher elevation such as zion national
park.

For other portions of utah, given steep deep layer lapse rates of
near 8c km and the development of minimal CAPE with afternoon
destabilization, snow showers will become more widespread after
noon tomorrow, especially south of i-80.

Another period of destabilization Tuesday as the coldest air aloft
coincident with the passage of the trough axis. Expect snow to
become largely confined to NW slopes. Colder Tuesday.

A brief break most of Tuesday night before the height falls and
warm advection ahead of the next storm dropping down the pacific
northwest coast invades Wednesday.

Long term (after 00z Thursday)
Continue to have high confidence that a cold pacific trough will
bring significant impact to southern utah late Wednesday night
through Thursday night, with accumulating snow likely within
utah's dixie and the powell region at times during the event.

Suite of deterministic ensemble guidance continues paint a similar
picture regarding track and evolution of this next trough, with the
cold core and attendant mid level circulation spinning up upstream
over nevada Wed night prior to becoming more vertically stacked over
southern nevada Thursday. Solid agreement exists down to the
surface, with a deepening surface low progged just south of dixie
Thursday. Originally arctic influenced, cold and with suitable deep
layer moisture... The low will provide ample forcing for widespread
precip (snow) across primarily southern utah (largely south of
i-70. Have continued to raise pops for those areas this package.

During the same time period further north, anticipating little if
any precip outside of spotty instability snow showers largely over
the terrain. Lack of synoptic lift within a shearing environment
will detract from much more than that.

Thereafter the trough will continue to amplify stretch whilst slowly
churning east across the desert southwest Friday. Suspect the
greatest uncertainty in guidance will continue to be just how much
and how fast it begins to transition out of the area during the day.

This said, do expect forcing to be relegated primarily within a
shear axis extending from SW wyoming to dixie, and points east with
translation.

Looks dry with below average temps to start off next weekend, with
the pattern potentially becoming a bit more tranquil, but spread in
outcomes within globals does increase significantly.

Aviation
Cigs at the slc terminal will continue to lower through the
evening and overnight hours with snow developing just after 00z
and dissipating by 06z. Intermittent ifr snow is likely before
winds shift to the south. Accumulations of up to 1 inch on
untreated surfaces are possible. Another round of low MVFR high
ifr snow is likely to develop just before 12z Monday for a few
hours near daybreak.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... Winter weather advisory until 9 am mst Monday for utz005.

Wy... None.

Short term... 10
long term... Merrill
aviation... Dewey
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bryce Canyon Airport, UT34 mi49 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy14°F8°F77%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from BCE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW134S5W6CalmW6W9W4SW5W5SW5SW3W3SW4SE7SE9S4E4NW7E6SE8S5W8
1 day agoSE6S11S7S4S9S10SE8SW19
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NW15W14W14W5W9NW15W14W9NW8W7W10NW7NW7W10
2 days agoSE13SE17--SE11SW14SW8W9SW12N3NW4N5N5CalmSE6S4CalmSE11SE12SE13SE17SE20
G23
SE15SE14S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cedar City, UT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.