Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:32 AM   Moonset 1:13 PM

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FXUS65 KSLC 022148 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 348 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A relatively cool and unsettled pattern will persist through the remainder of the week, with the next weather system bringing showers to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Thursday night into Friday. A rapid warmup Saturday will precede a strong storm system and associated strong cold front that will arrive this weekend. This system will bring strong, gusty winds and snow to the mountains.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A shortwave trough is currently pushing southeastward from southern ID and is expected to graze across northern UT and southwestern WY overnight.
Showers associated with this shortwave, currently situated over far northwestern UT this afternoon, will overspread across the northern third of the forecast area overnight and into the morning hours. The main concern with these showers will be gusty outflow winds and a low (10%) chance for lightning, especially this evening...given dry, well-mixed low levels. Short-term models are even hinting at some developing instability early Friday morning (4AM-8AM) near the central to northern Wasatch Front which may produce a few additional showers. Mountain snow accumulations will be very minor, around 1-3 inches across the highest elevations.

Coverage of showers will gradually diminish through the morning hours as the shortwave trough continues eastward and drier air and shortwave ridging moves in. Skies will largely clear by the early evening aside from a few mid- to high-level clouds. Friday high temperatures will still remain around 5-10 degrees below normal across northern areas and near normal across southern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Our May 'wait-spring-isn't- quite-here-yet' system is upon us this weekend/early next week. It will bring valley rain, mountain snow and gusty winds with it for a few days. This low, and its associated cold front, will track through the region from west to east as early as late Saturday with widespread valley rain and accumulating mountain snow to northern Utah by Sunday while the low begins to elongate in size. This would bring widespread impacts to the intermountain west however at this moment much of the precipitation impacts are expected north of the I- 70 corridor.

Minor impacts from increasing southerly winds ahead of this low are forecast across much of western Utah beginning Saturday evening.
Winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph are anticipated with even further increases headed into Sunday. Gusts closer to 60 mph are possible on some ridgetops and across Dugway as a 65 knot 700 mb LLJ is set up during the overnight hours. Headed into Sunday morning, these areas, as well as across the Tooele and Rush valleys, through southwest Utah along I-15 and to Cedar City are areas where the wind forecast is most uncertain.

Increasing southwesterly winds are forecast Sunday afternoon across eastern Utah where a high confidence exists on gusts exceeding 50 mph as the frontal boundary continues its progression eastward.
Given all the above conditions, headlines for wind are under consideration for many locations for Sunday and possibly starting Saturday as well. Trends will continue to be evaluated with the next model run.

The general consensus is that the center of the low will track through Nevada and through northern Utah headed toward Wyoming through Monday. As you might expect with an early spring storm system there are uncertainties as to how much snow is going to end up falling on these ridges across the Wasatch Mountains and western Uintas. Snow to liquid ratios in these areas from Sunday afternoon through early Monday are forecast in the 10 to 15 to 1 range.
Between these ranges and QPF ranges, there's a decent spread to snowfall amounts ranging from 6 inches to 2 feet in the higher elevations (>8000 ft) with an average snowfall forecast near a foot.
Even the Wasatch Back is expected to see some accumulating snow with this system; anywhere from 1 to 4 inches. Central Mountain locations, while they are expected to see accumulating snow on their ridges, are more likely to see less snowfall at closer to 6 inches.

Also of note, many of the Wasatch Front area benches early Monday morning have a good shot of waking up to some snowfall on their lawns; but accumulations are expected to be very minimal just enough to ruin any lawn mowing plans for the day.

Additional mountain snow showers are likely to persist Monday and Tuesday as weak shortwaves track around the aforementioned low until it tracks well east of the region mid-week. A fairly dry forecast is anticipated headed into the remainder of the week though the forecast toward the latter half of the week becomes more uncertain as a potential next trough moves through the region.

AVIATION
KSLC...Predominantly VFR conditions will continue tonight into tomorrow. A cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain showers from roughly 08-13Z, along with ceilings below 6kft AGL and a brief burst of northerly winds 10-15 kts. VFR conditions could lower into MVFR range with rain showers, with a 10% chance of vicinity lightning. Thereafter, expect clearing skies. Generally north winds are expected throughout the period, especially after the cold front passage.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A weak cold front will push as far south as central Utah overnight, bringing lower ceilings along with isolated to scattered rain showers from roughly 03-15Z, especially along and east of I-15. VFR conditions could lower into MVFR range with rain showers. A few mountain showers may persist tomorrow north of I-80, with clearing elsewhere. Most locations will see southwest winds today switch to northerly winds with the front.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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