Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:32 AM   Moonset 11:31 AM

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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 325 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Through 7 pm - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sat - E winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 325 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak cold front will continue to drop just south of the area through this evening. High pressure briefly builds in behind the front through Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast.

FXUS61 KAKQ 011925 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 325 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front slowly crosses the region through early this evening triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across southeastern portions of the area. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the region.
Rain chances return this weekend as a series of disturbances impact the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low spinning immediately offshore of the Outer Banks. Meanwhile, a weak cold front is sliding south across southern VA and NE NC. This combination has triggered isolated to scattered showers across far southern VA, and scattered showers/tstms across NE NC. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny NW to variably to mostly cloudy SE.
Temperatures are mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and locally cooler along the coast with onshore flow. Any lingering showers/tstms will diminish and drop S of the local area late this afternoon/early this evening as the front pushes S of the Albemarle Sound. Becoming mostly clear this evening, with patchy fog possible later tonight, especially E of the I-95 corridor. Forecast lows are mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US. After some early morning fog, Thursday will feature a mostly sunny sky and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for inland locations (may push 90 degrees in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with an onshore component to the wind. Mild/dry conditions Thursday night with lows around 60 (mid to upper 50s Eastern Shore).

High pressure builds SSE over New England Friday, which will push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place, but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances increase across western portions of the forecast area late Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend as a series of disturbances cross the area. A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it will affect the region Saturday into Sunday night, bringing a good chance of showers and a few tstms (tstms primarily well inland) across the entire area.
Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temperatures cooler Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid to upper 70s SSW. Highs Sunday will generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday, but there will be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

A weak frontal boundary is dropping S across far southern VA and NE NC as of 18z. SCT-BKN CU with bases of 4-6kft are occuring across the region, with isolated showers/tstms in vicinity of the front. The wind is mainly WSW 5-10kt ahead of the front, and NE 5-10kt behind the boundary. ECG has the best potential for a shower/tstm this afternoon, with brief IFR/MVFR possible in vsby. Otherwise, mainly VFR this aftn/evening.
Patchy IFR fog/stratus is possible later tonight/early Thursday morning, especially toward the coast. Mostly sunny and VFR Thursday with a SW wind of 5-10kt.

Primarily Dry/VFR conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are possible along the coast early Friday as a backdoor cold front slides through the area. There is chance for showers and a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday night through Sunday with the next front, with diminishing shower/tstm chances by Monday.

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through at least early Friday.

- Marginal SCA-level northeast winds and seas are possible behind a backdoor cold front Friday into Saturday.

Mainly quiet weather across the marine area this afternoon. One exception is over NE NC where scattered thunderstorms have developed in associated w/ a weakening front. Expect these storms to gradually drop S into this evening. While severe wx is not expected, frequent lightning and gusty winds of 30-35 kt are possible. These storms should stay confined to the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of the NC/VA border. Otherwise, winds are northerly and rather light (10 kt or less) behind the front. Seas are running 2-3 ft w/ waves 1 ft or less in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds become S/SSW tonight into Thursday with high pressure moving offshore. A backdoor cold front is expected to move in from the NE Friday morning, turning the flow onshore through most of Friday and Saturday. Models now agree on a period of 15-20 kt winds for most of the marine area initially behind the front Fri aftn and then possibly again Sat aftn as the pressure gradient re-tightens. Wind probabilities have increased during this period, especially over the ocean, and a marginal small craft advisory may eventually be needed. Seas could also inch up to 3-5 ft during this period. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 2-3 ft. High pressure situates offshore again later Sun into Mon w/ southerly winds returning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Gloucester Point
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Wed -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:24 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:58 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
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Gloucester Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Browns Bay
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Wed -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:00 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:39 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
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Browns Bay, Mobjack Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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