Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gloucester Point, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:51PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:54 AM EST (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 1251 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Snow and sleet likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less late.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Rain.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely.
ANZ600 1251 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Unsettled conditions return tonight through Wednesday as the next storm system approaches and crosses the region. A frontal boundary stalls over the region through Friday leading to continued unsettled conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gloucester Point, VA
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location: 37.25, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200552
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1252 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Unsettled conditions return tonight into Wednesday as the next
storm system moves northeast from the gulf of mexico. A frontal
boundary then stalls over the southeast and mid atlantic states
through Friday.

Near term through today
As of 840 pm Tuesday...

latest msas has high prs over ny extending south along the
delmarva. Meanwhile a trof was located over the mts. Sfc obs
and radar trends support the current gridded forecast as the
high to the north is keeping the lower levels dry this evening
with the closest pcpn reaching the ground (rain mixed with
sleet) noted across central and ERN nc.

Appears we have a few more hours of virga before enuf moistening
occurs to allow pcpn to reach the ground. Most high res data
supports pcpn spreading north after 03z from the SW and not until
after 06z north of i64.

Sfc temps are slow to drop into the mid-upr 30s this eve with
the coldest readings and lowest dew point temps along the coast.

Expect the first batch of overrunning pcpn (rain sleet) to break
out first across the south and east. As it gets farther north
and we start to wet bulb out, thermal profiles support snow and
sleet with pcpn not expected to break out until after 09z across
the lwr md ERN shore.

So, expect for minor tweeks given the current conditions, not
much change needed to the ongoing forecast and headlines attm.

May need adjustments once pcpn develops.

Waa from the south after 09z will begin the process of slowly
changing p-types to mainly rain across the se, mixed pcpn over
most of the fa except remaining snow across the far north.

Lows 30-35.

Pvs dscn:
overall, forecast rationale is very similar to past couple of
packages. Did make a minor adjustment down with snow to account
for a quicker mix to sleet ice pellets courtesy of strong h7-85
warm nose which will work in after 09z tonight. At the same
time, 1000-850mb thickness values will be slow to increase as
surface high pressure remains in vicinity of SRN new england.

Thus, expect a quick transition from frozen to freezing
precipitation after 12z 7am wed. Again... Given this quick
progression, snowfall totals came down slightly for all but far
northern zones. Did add a row to the winter weather advisory
from brunswick, va to eastern henrico. These areas will
experience a brief glaze of fzra pl which coincides with the
morning rush hour window (10z-14z). Points just east of this
area will bear watching, but should be just warm enough for a
cold, albeit briefly sleety... Rain per forecast soundings. For
that reason, will hold out of advisory for the time being and
monitor.

Warm air aloft will continue to deepen through the aftn Wednesday,
while the cool surface layer slowly thins out. Most areas will
hover just above 32f, and rise slowly by mid-late aftn, with
the exception of the far NW where some pockets of freezing rain
should persist, bringing at least a glazing of trees and
elevated surfaces. Snow accum is forecast to range from a
t-0.5" from the SW piedmont to the va ERN shore, with ~1"
(greater sleet concentration given previously referenced h7
waa) from the central piedmont toward the ric metro and most of
the md ERN shore, and 2-3" for the NW piedmont, n-central va,
and dorchester md. Ice accum is forecast to range from a few
hundredths of an inch for the i-95 corridor and ~0.1-0.15" over
the piedmont. Forecast highs Wednesday range from the low 30s
nw to the upper 30s low 40s central, and low 50s far se.

Mostly rain by Wednesday night (albeit a cold rain nw) with
temperatures remaining rather steady through the night. A cold
front aloft slowly pushes through the area Thursday with the
highest rain chances shifting se. Temperatures will be
challenging Thursday and will largely be dictated by whether or
not any clearing can occur by aftn. Temperatures aloft will be
quite warm (6-10f) at 850mb, but the low-level cool airmass my
not completely scour out if clouds hold strong. For now,
forecast highs are mainly in the 50s. Total liquid QPF for the
event ranges from 0.75" S to 1.25" n.

Short term tonight through Friday
As of 410 pm est Tuesday...

gradually clearing Wed night, though rain chances linger across
remnant frontal zone Wednesday night. Cool air wedge slowly
breaks down Thursday morning, with models indicating quick
return to warm sector mixing Thu aftn. GFS mav guidance remains
most optimistic with the NAM predictably slowest to break down
the wedge. Based on similar events over the past few weeks, truth
is likely somewhere in the middle, with weakening wedge likely
allowing for clearing and some warming into the late morning
thu. For that reason, have nudged up closer to the ecs numbers.

This yields highs in the u50s-low 60s inland with temps in the
50s across the east with lingering clouds.

Weak boundary will linger across the southern tier of the cwa
into Friday. Could see some lingering showers light rain across
the SE with shallow overrunning moisture on Friday. However,
should just portend to more clouds than Sun and a short-lived
lull in precipitation Friday. Slightly cooler with highs mainly
in the 50s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 340 pm Tuesday...

high pressure slowly moves from ny to new england Fri as a
cad wedge pattern remains in place over the cwa. An area of
steady light-moderate rain will quickly overspread the entire
region (from SW to ne) late Fri evening through Sat am as a
potent upper shortwave (along W sfc low pressure) moves from
the rockies to the plains midwest. Rain continues throughout the
region during the day on sat. A warm front lifts N toward the
region late Sat (and crosses the region Sat night) in response
to a deepening area of sfc low pressure tracking from the plains
to the midwest. Temperatures remain in the 40s in most areas on
sat as the rain falls. The steady rain departs to the N NE sat
night as the warm front crosses the region. Temperatures will
slowly rise Sat night (forecast temps at 12z Sun range from the
upper 40s nw-upper 50s se) as winds veer to the S then ssw
behind the front. Shower chances continue on Sun before the
trailing cold front crosses the region during the aftn as the
aforementioned sfc low tracks into SE canada. Not much in the
way of QPF W the cold FROPA on sun. Expect it to be a warm day
throughout the region on Sun as temperatures rise into the low-
mid 70s in most areas (w 60s on the ERN shore).

Drier (but not that cold) Mon mon night as sfc high pressure briefly
settles into the region. Our next chance of rain is late tue-wed, as
low pressure approaches from the west. Highs on Mon will be in the
upper 50s-low 60s in most areas (except for mid 50s on the ern
shore). Lows mainly in the 30s Mon night W highs rising into the
upper 40s n-mid 50s in SE va NE nc on tue.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1250 am est Wednesday...

high pressure is centered over the mid-atlantic coast as of 06z,
with low pressure over the lower mississippi valley. Moisture is
increasing from the wsw aloft with mid and high clouds
thickening across the region. Pcpn will overspread the region,
mainly after 08z for most sites, but after 12z for sby. Pcpn
likely begins as sn or sn pl at ric sby phf, with a brief period
of of ra pl at orf and mainly ra at ecg. PrimarilyVFR MVFR
through 12z, although occasional ifr vsby in sn is possible at
ric after 09z. CIGS fall to MVFR after 12z, and ifr generally
between 15-18z. Pcpn quickly changes to ra at phf after 12z, to
fzra pl at ric through about 15z before changing to ra, with sn
or sn pl at sby through 18-20z. Low pressure lifts off the mid-
atlantic coast tonight, with ifr CIGS and occasional ra dz br
persisting.

The chc of rain gradually ends from nw-se Thursday with
conditions slowly improving. High pressure builds N of the
region Thursday night into Friday. However, moisture will
continue to spread over the region with clouds and a minimal chc
of light rain continuing. Low pressure, and more rain and
flight restrictions are expected Friday night into Saturday. A
cold front crosses the region Saturday.

Marine
As of 250 pm est Tuesday...

in the near term, high pressure has built northwest of the waters
which has allowed for winds to diminish through the afternoon hours.

Winds are N to NE and range from 5 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 4
feet and waves of 1 to 2 feet in the bay. The next storm system
approaches the region from the SW later this evening and overnight
leading to the next period of unsettled conditions.

East winds increase from south to north over the waters tomorrow
morning as the system approaches and lifts across the region. Winds
increase to 15 to 25 knots over the coastal waters with gusts to 30
knots over the coastal waters and 15 to 20 knots over the bay lower
james during the day on Wednesday. Seas will also be on the increase
due to onshore flow, expect seas to build to 4 to 6 feet by
Wednesday evening night. As a result, small craft advisories are in
effect for all water minus the upper rivers through much of the day
Wednesday. The SCA for the coastal waters lasts through early
Thursday morning and may need to be extended due to continued
elevated seas. Finally, visibilities may be diminished to 1 nm or
less at times late tonight into Wednesday, particularly over the
northern coastal waters and chesapeake bay, due to snow and sleet.

Winds diminish and become SW over the waters by Wednesday night, and
w to NW Thursday as a frontal boundary settles south of the waters.

Seas may linger to 5 feet over the coastal waters, but sub-sca
conditions are expected over the bay during this period. High
pressure builds into the region late Thursday into Friday before
another system approaches the region late Friday into Saturday. A
stronger cold front likely impacts the region by the second half of
the weekend.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Winter weather advisory from 6 am this morning to noon est
today for mdz022>024.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am this morning to 3 pm est
this afternoon for mdz021.

Nc... None.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for vaz048-
509-510.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz061-
062-069-511-512-515-516.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
vaz060-065>068-079-080-513-514.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz064-
075>078-517-519-521-522.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for anz632-634.

Small craft advisory from 4 am early this morning to 4 pm est
this afternoon for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for anz630-631.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 pm est this
afternoon for anz638.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Ajz mpr mam
short term... Mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 2 mi55 min E 5.1 G 6 39°F 45°F1035 hPa (-0.9)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 8 mi55 min E 6 G 7 39°F 1035.7 hPa (-0.9)
44072 13 mi45 min 39°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 16 mi85 min SW 1 37°F 1037 hPa25°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 20 mi55 min ENE 5.1 G 6 39°F 1035.3 hPa (-1.1)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 21 mi55 min E 7 G 8.9 39°F 1034.2 hPa (-1.1)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 23 mi55 min 46°F1034.7 hPa (-1.1)
44087 24 mi85 min 44°F1 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 26 mi55 min E 5.1 G 8 39°F 1034.5 hPa (-1.4)
CHBV2 27 mi55 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 1033.8 hPa (-1.4)
44064 28 mi45 min E 5.8 G 7.8 38°F 1034.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi55 min E 2.9 G 2.9 44°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi55 min NE 7 G 8 1036.3 hPa (-0.9)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi55 min NE 5.1 G 6 38°F 1033.3 hPa (-1.3)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 34 mi55 min E 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 47°F1034.5 hPa (-1.2)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 47 mi55 min 43°F2 ft

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA8 mi61 minESE 410.00 miOvercast38°F21°F52%1035.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA10 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair38°F22°F53%1034.8 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA11 mi80 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1035.6 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA14 mi59 minESE 510.00 miFair38°F21°F49%1035.2 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA23 mi60 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F28°F75%1036.2 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA24 mi1.9 hrsESE 410.00 miOvercast39°F18°F43%1037 hPa

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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NE76NE10E14E10E11NE9E8E7E5CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmSE4
1 day agoW3CalmSW7S5SW8SW9W9W9W10W12
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2 days agoN4N4N4NE3CalmNE5NE4NE6NE9NE7NE4NE3E5E9SE84CalmN3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for Gloucester Point, York River, Virginia
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Gloucester Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:28 AM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:44 AM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:06 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:10 PM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.6-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.20.61.52.32.932.721.20.3-0.3-0.6-0.40.10.91.82.52.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for Tue Marshes Light, York River, Virginia
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Tue Marshes Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:16 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:31 AM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:53 PM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.3-0.4-0.7-0.6-0.10.71.52.22.72.72.31.60.80.1-0.4-0.6-0.40.211.82.32.52.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.