Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 11:57 PM   Moonset 8:04 AM

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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1239 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds.Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 12 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wed - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.

ANZ600 1239 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast this afternoon through Tuesday. A weak cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 281712 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 112 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore moves south early this week with a ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with isolated showers or storms possible. Precipitation chances increase late this week into the weekend as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Much warmer this afternoon and evening, followed by mild and dry weather tonight.

Upper ridging is building over much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon, and sfc high pressure has shifted to our S/SE. Skies are sunny outside of FEW fair weather cumulus. Temperatures are much warmer than they were yesterday upper 70s-lower 80s). Dry and mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s with a 5-10 mph SW wind.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
-A few isolated showers/storms are possible Tuesday.

A ridge remains over the area through the week with well above normal temps expected. Mon and Tues will likely be the warmest days of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for many)
both days. Some locations may reach 90F either day with NBM 50th percentile showing 88-90F. While these summer-like temps will certainly be well above the normal highs of mid 70s (lower 70s at SBY) this time of year, the record highs are in the lower 90s at most climate sites. However, SBY may approach (or exceed) record highs either/both days (see climate section below for more information). Apart from the heat, expect dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days with dry weather on Mon. A weak cold front crosses the area on Tue night with a few showers/storms possible (25-30% PoPs NW and 15-20% PoPs elsewhere) Tue afternoon/evening ahead of the front. Lows in the lower 60s both nights.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.
-Scattered showers/storms are possible Wednesday.
-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with well above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides off the New England coast Wed into Thu, pushing a backdoor cold front into the area. This front will allow for unsettled weather on Wed with a chance for scattered showers/storms (30-40% PoPs). It will also keep temps cooler along the coast both Wed and Thu with highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast Wed and mid 80s W to upper 60s to around 70F along the coast Thu. Thu will likely remain dry but kept NBM's slight chance for an isolated shower across SW portions of the FA.

As high pressure moves farther offshore Fri, winds become S with highs in the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to lower 80s E.
Remaining warm through the weekend with highs in the low-mid 80s Sat and lower 80s inland with 70s along the coast Sun. A prefrontal trough may spark some showers/storms Fri with 25-30% PoPs.
Shower/storms chances increase Sat as a cold front approaches from the W (35-54% PoPs). Shower/storm chances linger into Sun (30-40% PoPs). Lows remain above normal through next week as well in the 50s- 60s.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/28 TAF period with clear skies outside of FEW fair weather cumulus today and Monday.
SW winds will occasionally gust to 15-20 kt through this evening before diminishing a bit tonight, with a few 15-20 kt gusts expected once again on Monday.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Monday through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher (~30%)
chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on Wednesday at all of the terminals. Very brief flight restrictions are likely in any tstm.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the forecast period.

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds are out of the south and range from 10 to 15 knots, with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas are generally running around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the bay are 1 to 2 feet (up to 3 at the mouth). Winds will increase slightly as we approach slightly, with winds occasionally gusting to 20 knots at times (especially across the lower Chesapeake Bay). Otherwise, winds continue in the 10 to 15 knots range out of the S to SW today into tonight.

High pressure will gradually shift further to the south today before becoming centered off the Southeast US coast later today through Tuesday. Winds will average 5 to 15 knots through the period and will primarily be out of the S or SW. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. A cold front moves across the waters late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds shifting to the W and then NNW (but still remaining sub-SCA). Onshore flow is then expected later Wednesday through Thursday. Seas will increase slightly due to the onshore, likely 3 to 4 feet, but we will have to watch the potential for seas up to 5 feet (especially out 20 nm)
during this timeframe.

CLIMATE
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

4/29 4/30 RIC 94/1974 93/1974 ORF 92/1974 93/1988 SBY 89/1974 86/2017 ECG 90/1974 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station)
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Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:53 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station), Virginia, Tide feet

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:10 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet

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