Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eastville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:20PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:49 PM EST (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 140 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft... Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds...building to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds late.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ600 140 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides off the southeast us coast today. A cold front will move through the mid-atlantic states late tonight into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eastville, VA
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location: 37.26, -75.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221943
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
243 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast
today. A trough crosses the region Tuesday morning, with the
cold front lagging behind and pushing through the region by late
afternoon. Es well off the coast by Tuesday night. High
pressure becomes centered over the south central states
Wednesday and builds east into the local area by Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis places a potent sfc low ~992mb over iowa with
cutoff upper low lagging back a bit to the SW acrs eastern
kansas and NW missouri. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure remains
off the mid- atlantic coast with dry warm conditions over the
local area. Temperatures are now mainly ranging through the 50s
as of 10 am with a fairly thick cirrus shield in place (and some
mid clouds with CIGS around 10k ft over the eastern shore).

Bufkit soundings suggest a continuation of high clouds all day
and will call it partly cloudy overall for the aftn. Well above
avg for highs today, mainly in the mid-upper 60s except locally
cooler coastal eastern shore va beach nc outer banks. Do not
anticipate setting any record highs today but for reference
these are included in climate section below.

Dry very mild tonight with temperatures staying in the 50s just
about everywhere. Partly mostly cloudy in the evening, then
becoming cloudy overnight with increasing rain chances after 06z
mainly over the piedmont. Have likely pops to the i-95 corridor
after 09z. Enough mid level instability will move in late to
include mention of isolated tstms late across the far west.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
High rain chances (60-80%) prevail Tue morning as main sfc low
pressure becomes occluded over michigan and significant pressure
falls and a meso-low develop along the central appalachians by
around 12z. The strength of this feature will likely have a
significant affect on QPF and the potential for some embedded
convection in the morning in a high shear minimal cape
environment. At this time, SPC does not even place the CWA in a
marginal risk and current pattern with convection across the
deep south and gulf of mexico could be a hint that a split in
the precip shield is likely (and thus most areas should expect
0.25" or less of total QPF except for locally higher amounts in
tstms). Models remain in good general agreement wrt timing and
should see pops taper off w-e quickly by aftn... W pcpn moving
out of the entire area by 21z Tue to 00z wed. With aftn
sunshine, deep mixing, and a downslope flow highs Tue will be
breezy and unseasonably warm, possibly close to record highs.

Current forecast is for highs 70-75 f across much of central se
va and NE nc, with 65-70 f on the eastern shore and over the far
n NW sections of the cwa. Dry cooler Tue night Wed W lows
mainly in the 30s and highs Wed upper 40s N and on the ERN shore
to 50-55 f elsewhere.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Overall pattern continues to show the long term period beginning
with a shortwave ridge building eastward from the mississippi
valley into the southeastern us and mid-atlantic states on
Friday into Saturday. This is followed by a full latitude trough
that moves in on Sunday into Monday. But today, the timing
between the models and strength of the cold front crossing the
area is different with the 12z GFS slower and weaker while the
12z ECMWF is slower, stronger and would provide more rain for
the region. The ECMWF right now has better run to run continuity
than the GFS as the 6z GFS was slower and wetter than the 12z
run. So for now have leaned a little more toward the slower
ecmwf for that part of the forecast.

On Thursday night through Friday, high pressure will be in
control of the regions weather with the high overhead expect to
see a very cool night with good radiational cooling, lows in the
m20s-l30s. Temperatures will begin to warm again on Friday as
warm advection begins with SW flow, expect highs in the u40s to
mid 50s. Mex guidance is a bit warmer and began to trend that
direction raising highs a few degrees above the other guidance.

The SW flow continues on Fri night with more dry weather and
maybe a few more clouds. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s
are expected.

For Saturday through Sunday night, this is where the most
interesting portion of the extended lies as the quicker GFS has
the moisture and front approaching the area by late sat
afternoon, which is about 6 to 12 hours faster than the 6z gfs
or ecmwf. At this range, did raise pops a touch, but kept the
forecast dry on Sat with temperatures getting back into the u50s
to l60s. But beginning Sat night did start to raise pops up to
high chance values. Some guidance suggest pops in the likely
range are possible now, but with timing issues and also the
questionable forcing have capped pops at 50% from late Sat night
through Sunday with a slow clearing of the pops in Sunday
evening. Sunday looks like the most probably period for rain and
the ECMWF would indicate a beneficial rain, which would be good
for the drought areas, but at this range models have been
showing these types of events for the last few weeks, but the
plentiful rain has been materializing. Have kept temps mild on
sat night and Sunday with lows in the 40s and highs still in the
60s.

The front should clear the area Sunday night with NW and high
pressure building in on Monday. The strength of the developing
upper trough will determine how strong the low over new england
gets Sunday night and this will impact temps on Monday. The
ecmwf would suggest temperatures cooler than the currently
forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday. But for now will
not bit completely on the ecmwf.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions expected to continue through the bulk of the 12z
taf period. Bkn-ovc mid level cloudiness (cigs mainly 7-9 kft)
moving across the local area attm... Expected to continue into
the morning hours... W most CIGS lifting to above 12 kft for
late this morning-this eve. Generally light S winds early
today... Increasing to 10-15 kt through the rest of day. Sfc high
pres remains off the SE coast W dry conditions continuing. The
next chance for widespread precipitation and flight
restrictions comes after 06-09z 23 through (early) Tue aftn
with a passing cold front. Gusty ssw winds (to 20-30 kt) early
tue shift to the wnw late in the day along W potential for
widespread ifr CIGS (and shras). Isold tstms possible with the
front mainly Tue morning. Dry andVFR conditions then prevail
late tue-fri.

Marine
High pressure over the waters today will keep S winds below 15 kt
waves seas 1-2 ft. Winds will begin to increase tonight as a
deepening low over the great lakes pushes its associated cold front
toward the region by tues morning. Winds will increase to 15 to 25
kt from the s-sw prior to daybreak tues, continuing thru
midday early aftn, with seas on the coastal waters building to 4-6
ft; waves 3-4 ft on the bay. Scas remain in effect for all waters.

Hard to get gales with warm s-sw winds over cold water this time of
year, but did keep mention of a few gusts to 35 kt for our northern
coastal waters. Once the front clears the area tues afternoon, winds
will shift to the west 10-15 kt tues night Wed and then northwest on
Thursday. Waves seas subside to 1-3 ft.

Climate
Record high temperatures today and Tuesday.

Today Tuesday
ric 75 1906 76 1974
orf 77 1937 76 1999
sby 72 1927 73 1999
ecg 79 1937 76 1937

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for
anz630>632-634>638.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Tuesday to midnight est Tuesday
night for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 10 pm est Tuesday for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Ess
aviation... Alb
marine... Jdm mam
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44096 22 mi59 min 40°F1 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 25 mi50 min S 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 42°F1020.4 hPa (-2.9)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 25 mi50 min SSE 6 G 8 36°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 26 mi80 min 41°F1 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi50 min S 16 G 16 1020.5 hPa (-3.1)
CHBV2 33 mi50 min SSE 9.9 G 12 45°F 1019 hPa (-3.1)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi50 min SE 8.9 G 11 57°F
44089 36 mi80 min 38°F1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi50 min S 8.9 G 8.9 46°F 1020.4 hPa (-3.2)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 46 mi50 min E 5.1 G 6 1019.9 hPa (-3.3)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi50 min 37°F1019.9 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA30 mi75 minS 8 G 1410.00 miFair65°F45°F48%1020.3 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmS8S5S4S7S6SW6S8S10S8S9S8S6S6S7S6S5S4SW8SW6SW9S5S7S9
1 day agoW8SW5SW3CalmSW6SW5SW3SW4W3SW3W3W4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6SE5S4E4
2 days agoW4SW4CalmSE3S3S6S6SW4S5SW6SW5SW4SW5SW6SW5SW6SW5SW6W7W9W11W11
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station), Virginia
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Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:57 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.61.810.40.10.41.122.93.6443.32.41.50.70.20.10.61.42.22.93.5

Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:29 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:49 AM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:05 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.82.11.30.60.20.20.71.52.43.13.73.93.52.71.91.10.40.10.311.82.53.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.