Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eastville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:55PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:04 AM EST (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 1:03PMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 339 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Friday morning...
Through 7 am..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely.
Today..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds, building to 11 to 13 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 35 kt late in the evening, then becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 12 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 8 to 10 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 339 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region today bringing gale conditions to a majority of the waters through tonight. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday into Saturday leading to calmer conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eastville, VA
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location: 37.26, -75.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 150931
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
431 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast up the southeast and mid
atlantic coasts today, and then lift toward the new england
coast tonight. High pressure returns late tonight into Friday
and remains over the region through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 405 am est Thursday...

the current surface analysis places 1038mb high pressure
centered over NRN new england and 1012mb low pressure of the ga
coast. Meanwhile, GOES wv imagery places an upper low over the
mid- mississippi valley, with another area of surface low
pressure over ERN tn. This upper low is expected to move ewd
today approaching the WRN slopes of the appalachians by later
this aftn. As this occurs, the area of low pressure off the
coast will track NE along the coast and deepen today as it
reaches the va capes by later this aftn. Light rain (and some
embedded sleet over the piedmont) has reached the area early
this morning, and pcpn intensity will increase later this
morning into the aftn as deep moisture lift track into the area.

A wintry mix (sn pl fzra) is expected to become more prevalent
for a 3-6hr period over the NW piedmont as the column cool with
increasing pcpn intensity this morning. Surface t TD will
generally settle around 32 32f for the far NW piedmont, which
will result in minimal snow ice accum especially given generally
warm ground temperatures. Nevertheless, elevated surface (such
a bridges and overpasses) could become slick and a winter
weather advisory is in effect. Pcpn is all rain by this aftn
with QPF generally 1-2" across the region. This combined with
rain from earlier in the week will result in a flood risk for
creeks, streams, and poor drainage areas and a flood watch is in
effect.

Temperatures early this morning range from the low mid 30s from
the piedmont to the md ERN shore, with low 50s over the se.

Temperatures are actually expected to drop a few degrees over
the piedmont through the morning, then rise a few degrees by
aftn, while temperatures rise along the coast. Highs today range
from the mid 30s over the NW piedmont, to the mid 40s for
central va, to the 50s from s-central va to the ERN shore, and
mid 60s for coastal SE va NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
As of 405 am est Thursday...

surface low pressure is forecast to be located along the
delmarva coast by this evening, as the upper system remains to
the W over the central appalachians. The low then moves toward
long island late tonight early Friday morning and occludes. Rain
will gradually taper to showers this evening as the upper
system tracks across the NRN mid-atlantic, with drier air
arriving from the wnw as the low becomes stacked NE of the local
area. Clearing is expected sw-ne as drier air arrives with lows
ranging from the low 30s W to the low mid 40s along the coast.

High pressure returns Friday into Saturday with a mostly
clear sunny sky. Temperatures will remain below seasonal
averages with a trough over the east coast with highs generally
in the 50s Friday Saturday and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s
for coastal SE va NE nc Saturday morning.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

much quieter weather expected during the extended period. Sfc high
pressure centered over the area early Sunday morning weakens during
the day on sun, with dry seasonable weather expected throughout the
area. A weak upper-level shortwave approaches the area on late
Sunday-Monday (coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way
of rain expected with the fropa, but have pops of 15-30% for eastern
portions of the area late Sun night-mon (best rain chances will be
in coastal NE nc). NW flow aloft will prevail from Mon pm through at
least midweek, with mainly dry weather and temperatures a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Another weak upper level shortwave
may swing through the mid-atlantic on wed. The GFS is showing a few
showers moving across the area, but the ECMWF cmc keep us dry.

Decided not to add any mention of rain to the forecast attm.

Forecast highs Sunday range from the low-mid 50s NW to around 60 in
in SE va NE nc. The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs
on Mon will still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Lows Sunday
night in the mid-upper 30s inland low-mid 40s near the coast. Cooler
on both Monday and Tuesday night with lows ranging from ~30 NW to
~40 in coastal SE va NE nc.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
As of 310 am est Wednesday...

1038mb high pressure is located over new england as of 08z, with
low pressure deepening off the ga coast, and another area of low
pressure centered over ERN tn. Light rain is spreading across
the area, with a mix ice pellets possible W of ric. CIGS areVFR
with vsby greater than 6sm. The low pressure system off the ga
coast is expected to track up the east coast today, as the low
to the W weakens. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected
to overspread the region around and after 12z. MVFR ifr vsby is
expected in rain today, with CIGS falling to ifr later this
morning (earliest at ric). A line of heavy rain with a slight
chc of tstms is expected to affect ecg around the 19-22z
timeframe today. Elsewhere, expect rain to end from sw-ne late
this aftn through this evening. A NE wind will increase to
10-15kt inland to 15-25kt along the coast, with gusts as high as
35kt along the coast, and ~20kt inland. CIGS are expected to
remain ifr this evening after the rain ends. Drier air arrives
from the W later tonight with the wind becoming NW and
conditions are expected to improve rapidly after 06z.

High pressure prevails Friday through Monday withVFR conditions
expected.

Marine
As of 330 am est Thursday...

early this morning, observations show NE winds of around 15 to
25 knots over the waters. Seas range from 5 to 7 feet while
waves in the bay range from 3 to 4 feet. Conditions will begin
to rapidly deteriorate this morning from south to north as an
area of low pressure intensifies along the carolina coast and
lifts nne with strong high pressure over new england.

Gusts to gale force likely begin by 6 am across the southern
waters and spread north through the morning hours. E NE winds
will likely gust to 35 to 40 knots in the bay and southern
coastal waters, and a little higher to 40 to 45 knots on the
ocean north of CAPE charles. Seas will increase to 8 to 12 feet
south and 10 to 15 feet by late Thursday afternoon evening off
the eastern shore. Waves in the bay will average 4 to 6 feet
with higher waves right at the mouth of the bay.

A brief lull in the wind is expected later this evening and
into tonight as the area of low pressure moves off the mid-
atlantic coast. Winds turn to the W NW Thursday night into
Friday morning, likely gusting to gale force for the coastal
waters and bay. Gusts will once again reach 35 to 40 knots over
the coastal waters bay with higher gusts to 45 knots out 20 nm.

Winds will likely be highest in the 06-12z period over the
waters before slowly diminishing through Friday morning. As a
result of newest wind probabilities and model guidance, opted to
extend the gale warning for the southern coastal waters and bay
into Friday morning. Left headlines in the rivers and currituck
sound as is and will let the day shift evaluate the need for
any potential upgrades based on the latest data. Regardless,
winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into Friday
afternoon.

Winds and seas will remain stirred up into early Saturday
morning, likely requiring additional SCA headlines after the
gale warnings expire. Calmer conditions return for the weekend
as high pressure settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 430 am est Thursday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 430 am est Thursday...

strong surge of E NE winds will cause tidal departures to
rapidly increase this morning. However, tidal departures are
currently minimal (and actually negative in upper portions of
the bay). Thus, even with 1.5 to 2 ft rises in departures from
current levels, most locations will only approach or just barely
get to minor flood thresholds. The high tide of concern will
not be until this afternoon (or perhaps the following tide
early Fri morning for the ocean side of the md eastern shore).

Have opted not to issue any coastal flood advisories at this
time and will continue to monitor trends this morning.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flood watch through this evening for mdz021>025.

High surf advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est Friday
for mdz025.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est this evening
for mdz024-025.

Nc... Flood watch through this evening for ncz012>017-030>032-102.

High surf advisory until 10 pm est this evening for ncz102.

Wind advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for ncz017-102.

Va... Flood watch through this evening for vaz048-060>062-064>069-
075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
vaz048-060-061-509.

Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for vaz095-098-100-
525.

High surf advisory until 10 pm est this evening for vaz098.

High surf advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est Friday
for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est this evening
for vaz099.

Marine... Gale warning until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-656-658.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz633-635-636.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz637.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz638.

Synopsis... Ajz mrd
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz mrd
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz eri
marine... Ajb
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 25 mi35 min ENE 11 G 16 56°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 25 mi35 min ENE 16 G 19 47°F 48°F1029.6 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 26 mi35 min 62°F8 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi35 min NNE 17 G 20 1030.6 hPa
CHBV2 33 mi35 min ENE 25 G 29 49°F 1026.7 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 34 mi35 min NE 27 G 31 51°F 1026 hPa
44064 35 mi35 min E 23 G 27 50°F 1027.8 hPa
44089 36 mi35 min 59°F6 ft
44087 37 mi35 min 57°F4 ft
44072 39 mi35 min ENE 18 G 21 47°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi35 min NE 23 G 27 46°F 1029.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi35 min ENE 18 G 21 44°F 1031 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 46 mi35 min ENE 25 G 29 50°F 1027 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi35 min 58°F1027.6 hPa

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA30 mi70 minNNE 410.00 miLight Rain38°F34°F87%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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N8N6N7N5N5N6N5N4N4N7N6N5NE9N8N5N7N5
1 day agoS4SW10
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2 days agoCalmNE4NE3E3E3SE5E4E5E6E5E4NE3NE5E6E6E4E4SE5SE4SE6SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station), Virginia
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Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:27 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.43.22.721.51.21.11.31.82.533.53.83.73.22.41.71.20.80.711.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 PM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.53.63.22.51.81.41.21.21.52.22.93.53.943.732.21.510.70.81.32

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.