Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Colonial Heights, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 2:52 AM EDT (06:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 1238 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt...becoming N late. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers after midnight...then a chance of showers late.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. A slight chance of tstms late in the morning...then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers with a chance of tstms early in the evening...then showers likely late in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms until early morning... Then showers likely late.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1238 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary drops into the carolinas overnight. This front lifts back north into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night as low pressure tracks along the boundary. Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colonial Heights, VA
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location: 37.27, -77.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230125
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
925 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track off the mid atlantic coast overnight, as
a frontal boundary drops south of the area. The front will lift
back north into the region on Tuesday, as a potent low pressure
system tracks across the local area. Unsettled conditions
continue Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough
approaches from the west.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Latest wx analysis reveals sfc low pressure pushing offshore of
the va/nc coast this evening. Cooler, more stable air behind
convective line of showers and storms from earlier this evening
has left a temporary lull in rain across the area. Lone
exception for the local area is with a few showers NW of ric
metro area which will continue through the early overnight
hours. Have accounted for these with a low 20-30 pop for
isolated-widely sct showers through 06z or so. Otherwise, look
for little more than some patchy drizzle through much of the
night... With some partial clearing across the northern neck and
the lower eastern shore to lead to some patchy fog through late
tonight.

Rain chcs return (srn va/interior NE nc) after 08z/4 am edt. An
upper disturbance currently noted on early evening WV imagery
sliding across the mid-south will pivot NE ahead of the cool
front toward the carolinas late tonight, reaching the lower
mid-atlantic by early Tuesday morning. Likely to categorical
pops arrive for the SW corner of the area during this period
beginning by daybreak Tuesday. Rap/hrrr both implying some
impressive overrunning moisture with the arrival of this wave as
early as 6-8 am, and have accounted for locally heavy rainfall
potential across the southern third of the area for the early
portion of the am rush. Lows range from the upper 50s far nw
zones... With lows in the low to mid 60s for most, under a partly
to mostly cloudy sky.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/
The flow aloft remains SW Tuesday, with aforementioned shortwave
lifting newd across the carolinas toward southern va during the
morning, reaching the mid-atlantic/delmarva coastal plain
during the aftn and evening. With deep layer moisture
returning, categorical pops quickly ramp up from SW to NE and
overspread the entire area for Tuesday. 22/12z suite of models
(nam/gfs/gefs/ecmwf/cmc) continue to show some differences in
timing and location and strength of this wave of low pressure,
but the general theme is for a potent system with deep anomalous
moisture transport per strong h925-h700 southerly flow and pw
values climbing to ~1.75" collocated with the favorable rrq of a
potent 120-130kt jet over the northeast conus. The threat for
heavy rain and possible flooding will continue to be mentioned
in the hwo, and have opted against a flood watch at this time as
6hr FFG is generally 4-6" across much of the area, with some
values of 3-4" across the piedmont and md ERN shore. QPF through
00z Wednesday averages 1-3" across the region, and higher
amounts are possible. Storm total QPF through Thursday ranges
from 1.5-3.5" (tonight through Thursday) the axis of heaviest
rain per 12z model consensus is generally in the i-85/us 360
corridor. The current high temperature forecast shows generally
low/mid 70s SE to the upper 60s/around 70 f central and mid 60s
far nw.

This shortwave/surface low push offshore Tuesday evening.

However, 22/12z nam/ecmwf depict a secondary wave lifting across
the SRN half of the are 00-06z Wednesday, so have bumped pops
up to 40-70% S to account for this. Yet another wave approaches
from the SW Wednesday aftn as an upper low approaches from the
w. This wave tracks across the region Wednesday evening through
the early overnight hours bringing another round of likely pops
along with a chc of embedded thunderstorms. Current 12z guidance
suggests the best instability remains offshore. However, the
potential for some strong to severe storms will need to be
monitored with 500mb height falls and strengthening/veering flow
at the 500mb level. Unsettled conditions continue into Thursday
with chc to likely pops continuing along with a chc of thunder.

Mostly cloudy to overcast Tuesday night through Thursday with
lows Tuesday night/Wednesday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
followed by highs Wednesday/Thursday ranging through the 70s.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/
Trough axis tracks across the region Thursday night as the
surface low tracks just north of the region. Will keep mention
of chance pops across the northeast portion of the local area
Thursday night. Dry conditions and a clearing sky is forecast
Friday as the trough axis and deepest moisture push offshore and
westerly flow aloft commences. Temperatures Friday generally
around average in the mid to upper 70's. Upper level flow
becomes northwest Friday night and Saturday ahead of an upper
level ridge building over the ohio valley. A warm front lifts
into the region Saturday, providing a focus for showers and
thunderstorms, but overall moisture is expected to be limited.

Will keep only slight chance pops for the piedmont Saturday at
this time. Warmer, with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday night as upstream convection develops and tracks along
the frontal boundary and into the region. However, spatial and
timing differences exist so have capped pops in the low end
chance range. Thereafter, unsettled conditions persist Sunday
through Monday as an upper level trough tracks across the
midwest into the eastern conus. A great deal of uncertainty
exists in the medium range guidance, but it appears moisture
return will be limited. Will keep mention of low end chance pops
in the forecast. Highs both days generally in the low to mid
80's.

Aviation /01z Tuesday through Saturday/
Low pressure and associated precipitation have moved off the coast.

Much of the stratus has cleared but some remains including southeast
virginia where orf continued with an ifr ceiling. A cold front just
southeast of the TAF sites will settle a little farther to the south
before returning to the north on Tuesday. Low pressure develops
along the front and moves northeast across southeast virginia. The
exact track of the low will impact both wind directions and areas of
ifr. The lower ceilings will generally occur to the northwest of the
track.

Ifr ceilings are expected to return overnight and especially toward
sunrise. Widespread precipitation develops Tuesday morning and
continues most of the day. The rain will be heavy at times...

reducing visibility. Ifr ceilings will be widespread...

especially northern and western portions of the area.

Outlook... Other low pressure systems will impact the area but not to
the extent as the one on Tuesday. Nevertheless... Aviation
conditions will be reduced at times through Thursday. High
pressure builds over the area Thursday night and Friday with
drying. Moisture returns with a chance for precipitation
developing during the weekend.

Marine
Latest surface analysis centers a compact area of low pressure
over southeast virginia/northeast north carolina with a cold
front over the piedmont. Winds were generally from the east to
southeast at or below 15 knots, with a few gusts to around 20-25
knots in convection. Seas average 2-4 feet and waves 1-2 feet.

The compact area of low pressure slides offshore this evening,
slowly drifting to the northeast. The cold front stalls along
the coast. Winds north of the boundary become northerly, and
remain west to southwest south of the front with speeds
generally at or below 10 knots tonight. Low pressure lifts
northeast of the area Tuesday as another area of low pressure
develops along the stalled frontal boundary. That area of low
pressure lifts across southeast virginia Tuesday afternoon.

Could see an uptick in east to southeast winds Tuesday afternoon
ahead of the surface low, but pressure falls are not
particularly impressive. Have kept speeds around 15 knots
Tuesday afternoon. Have held off on SCA headlines at this time
due to low confidence based on differences in guidance and
marginal conditions. The low slides offshore Tuesday as the
front pushes offshore. Flow becomes north to northwest, but a
lack of cold advection results in sub-sca conditions. Seas could
build to 4-5 feet out 20 nm in the northern coastal waters
Tuesday night. Again, low confidence so no SCA headlines at this
time. Flow becomes onshore Wednesday as another area of low
pressure tracks into the ohio valley. Seas generally 2-4 feet
with speeds of 10-15 knots.

The next front pushes offshore Thursday night, with increasing
southwest winds Thursday ahead of the front. SCA conditions are
possible.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz/mam
short term... Ajz/lkb
long term... Sam
aviation... Lsa
marine... Sam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 32 mi43 min N 1.9 G 1.9 67°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 36 mi83 min Calm 63°F 1015 hPa62°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 47 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 66°F 69°F1013 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA10 mi78 minN 00.50 miFog60°F59°F97%1014.2 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA12 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1014.2 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA17 mi59 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE4E7CalmCalmE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE8NE11NE8E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Puddledock Sand
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Puddledock Sand & Gravel
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Tue -- 02:21 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:45 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.33.63.53.12.41.60.90.3-0.10.31.222.42.82.92.621.30.70.2-0.10.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.33.432.41.71.10.60.30.20.61.42.22.732.92.31.710.50.20.20.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.