Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Roanoke, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:56 PM EST (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roanoke, VA
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location: 37.28, -79.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 152036
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
336 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

An upper level low pressure area will bring about a changeover
from rain this afternoon to mountain snow showers. Limited snow
accumulations are expected from this short-lived period of snow
showers. Blustery and cold conditions are expected on Friday,
followed by fair but chilly weather for the weekend. Fire weather
concerns are low through the next five days given wet fuel
moisture conditions.

Near term through Friday
As of 330 pm est Thursday...

the closed upper low is moving into the ohio valley this
afternoon. This is slightly faster than previously forecasted
and has resulted in heavier rain leaving early with temperatures
warming into the mid 30s. However, flow remains easterly along
and east of the blue ridge for light rain and drizzle to
continue to fall for the rest of the afternoon. Some isolated
locations are still below freezing and may experience an
additional light glazing of ice.

The closed low is expected to jog to the east this evening
before it tracks northeast along the appalachians. As winds turn
towards the west, temperatures should warm into the mid to
upper 30s, helping to melt remain ice left on trees. The low is
expected to move quickly to the new england coast overnight.

Modest pressure rises and an increasing cross-barrier jet will
result in breezy and gusty winds tonight into Friday afternoon.

Majority of the ice, should have melted off of the trees before
these northwest winds increase tonight. Also accompany the winds
will be upslope rain showers change to snow showers tonight.

The overall pattern does not suggest any long duration or
significant snow accumulations for western slopes tonight. High
pressure builds in Friday afternoon with winds subsiding.

Temperatures will warm into the 40s across the mountains to the
lower 50s east.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
As of 115 pm est Thursday...

Friday night the area will be within an region of decreasing
northwest flow aloft in the wake of the departing upper low and
the approach of surface high pressure. The speeds are expected
to be too weak, that combined with increasing dry air across the
region, to support any lingering upslope isolated rain snow
showers across western greenbrier county. Partly cloudy skies
are possible though in this region compared to mostly clear to
clear elsewhere across the forecast area. Low temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s across the
mountains with lower 30s across the piedmont.

Saturday night through Sunday surface high pressure builds
over, then east of the are as the flow aloft becomes zonal.

Expect a continuation of dry conditions and a slight warming

Sunday night into Monday a cold front is expected to reach the
western extent of the area but have little impact on our region
as it progresses eastward. Some parts of southeast west virginia
will experience some light rain snow showers late Sunday
afternoon and night. Temperatures by Sunday night will range
from the low to mid 30s across the mountains with mid to upper
30s across the piedmont. High temperatures on Monday will reach
the mid to upper 40s across the mountains and mid to upper 50s
over the piedmont.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate to

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 140 pm est Thursday...

the region will remain near the base of a broad upper trough
that will have periodic weak disturbances progressing across our
area. Model vary as to the timing of these features, but all
are consistent that none will have a huge impact on our
forecast. Most offer some isolated to scattered rain snow
showers across parts of southeast west virginia, with limited
coverage, if any, farther east over central or eastern parts of
the forecast area. Our latest forecast will reject such
scenarios with one small potential Monday into Monday into
Monday night, and then again Tuesday night.

The vast majority of the forecast area will receive no
precipitation during this time period. Temperatures during this
part of the forecast will generally range from highs of the low
to mid 40s over the mountains with low to mid 50s across the
piedmont. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s to
lower 30s across the mountains with low to mid 30s across the

Forecast confidence in the above portion of the forecast is

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 1240 am est Thursday...

rain beginning to pull out of the area early this afternoon,
but low clouds and possible drizzle to hang around through the
afternoon. Good news is that temperatures will warm above
freezing through the afternoon.

MVFR to ifr ceilings will hang around into the evening along
and east of the blue ridge. A closed low will drift to the ohio
valley and increase mixing over the region. As winds increase
from the west, low clouds will dissipate along and east of the
blue ridge. For the west, ceilings and visibilities will become
vfr by mid afternoon, then lower to MVFR as showers from the
closed low advance towards the area. Rain showers will change
over to snow through the evening. Snow showers will be more
intense along western slopes between 02z-10z Friday. Through the
morning hours snow showers will taper off from south to north
with everyone returning toVFR.

Modest pressure rises and an increasing NW cross barrier jet
will bring breezy conditions to the area starting across the
mountains after midnight then the entire region during the day.

Northwest winds gusting to 25kts will be common with gusts to
45kts along ridgetops.

Confidence is average for timing of the precipitation,
precipitation type, and ceilings, and above average for all
other elements.

Extended discussion...

vfr conditions with a mostly clear sky will return across the
region for the weekend. Models suggest a chance for MVFR
ceilings in southeast west virginia on Friday night and Saturday
morning but confidence is this occurring is low.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for

Flood watch until 7 pm est this evening for vaz043-044-058-059.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for

Nc... Flood watch until 7 pm est this evening for ncz004>006-020.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for

Synopsis... Rcs
near term... Rcs
short term... Ds
long term... Ds
aviation... Rcs

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA3 mi63 minENE 32.50 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist37°F36°F96%1013.1 hPa
Virginia Tech Airport, VA24 mi82 minN 02.00 miUnknown Precip34°F34°F100%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from ROA (wind in knots)
1 day agoNW7
2 days agoSE4SE4CalmCalmCalmW4CalmN5NW3N5N9NE8N8N4N7N6N7W6NW5NW11W7W10W9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.