Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williamsburg, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:24 PM EST (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 358 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Through 7 pm..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.
Thu..NE winds 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 358 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the region later tonight into Thursday bringing gale conditions to a majority of the waters. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamsburg, VA
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location: 37.3, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 142347
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
647 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A complex area of low pressure over the southeast affects the
region Thursday. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday
into the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

high pressure currently over the area will move northeast tonight
allowing developing low pressure over the southeast to move toward
the region tonight. This will allow widespread precipitation to move
into the area from SW to NE overnight as the coastal low develops
over the carolinas. Big concern for late tonight into Thu morning
will be the potential for wintry weather across the far western part
of the forecast area to the west of richmond. Models are in very
good agreement in keeping the wedge in place through the day on
Thursday. This cold air combined with the dry air associated with
the retreating high should yield a mixture of sleet and freezing
rain mainly from louisa southward to farmville. Relatively warm sfc
wet bulb temperatures combined with the relative warm ground will
make it tough for any freezing rain to accumulate other than on
elevated surfaces. In fact, it is possible that the developing cold
dome above the surface will keep much of the precipitation in the
form of sleet. However, with the wintry mix expected, have opted to
issue a winter weather advisory for western louisa, fluvanna,
cumberland and prince edward for 2am-10am for a glaze of ice and
sleet potential. At this time, wintry precip is not expected in the
ric metro, except for perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset.

Still, it will be a cold rain in the metro, with temps only expected
in the mid-upr 30s Thu morning.

Otherwise, across the remainder of the area expect moderate to
locally heavy rain to fall late tonight through tomorrow with many
areas seeing 1-2 inches. The heaviest rain will fall across the far
east near the best frontogenetic forcing and low pres track. Latest
eps and GEFS guidance suggests that the probability is quite low for
>2 inches of rain, however with the already saturated ground, it
will not take much for minor flooding and will continue the flood
watch for the entire area. Thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled
out across far NE nc with that area being near the low track, but
for now will leave out given the relatively poor lapse rates and
being a very small chance. Latest guidance suggests that the rain
will start to move out late Thu aftn as a dry slot moves in from the
sw.

Lastly, it will become quite windy especially at the coast with
strong e-ne winds developing in the pres gradient between the
low to the south and the strong high over the NE states. Will
issue a wind advisory for much of the area close to the coast
for Thursday.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s NW to the lower 40s se.

Highs Thursday will range from the mid-upr 30s far NW to temps in
the mid-upr 60s across the far se.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

after the low moves out Thu night, expect high pressure to build in
for Friday and into Saturday with mostly sunny skies. Temps will
still be cooler than average with the mean trough and lower than
average heights over the east coast. Temps will rise into the
50s during the day and drop to 30s at night.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

much quieter weather expected during the extended period. Sfc high
pressure centered over the area early Sunday morning weakens during
the day on sun, with dry seasonable weather expected throughout the
area. A weak upper-level shortwave approaches the area on late
Sunday-Monday (coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way
of rain expected with the fropa, but have pops of 15-30% for eastern
portions of the area late Sun night-mon (best rain chances will be
in coastal NE nc). NW flow aloft will prevail from Mon pm through at
least midweek, with mainly dry weather and temperatures a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Another weak upper level shortwave
may swing through the mid-atlantic on wed. The GFS is showing a few
showers moving across the area, but the ECMWF cmc keep us dry.

Decided not to add any mention of rain to the forecast attm.

Forecast highs Sunday range from the low-mid 50s NW to around 60 in
in SE va NE nc. The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs
on Mon will still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Lows Sunday
night in the mid-upper 30s inland low-mid 40s near the coast. Cooler
on both Monday and Tuesday night with lows ranging from ~30 NW to
~40 in coastal SE va NE nc.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 645 pm est Wednesday...

vfr conditions everywhere (w bkn-ovc CIGS above 10k feet) this
evening with sfc ridging extending from ERN pa southward into
va nc. Low pressure over the southeast will move toward the
region tonight and track across the area on Thursday. Moderate
to occasionally heavy rain will quickly overspread the terminals
between 08-13z Thu and will last through at least late aftn.

This will cause rapidly deteriorating conditions throughout the
entire region by Thu morning. Visibilities will be in the
MVFR ifr range due to the ra, with widespread prevailing ifr
cigs during the day on Thursday. May even see lifr CIGS at times
(most likely at ric). A line of +ra (w a slight chc of an
embedded tstm) may affect ecg Thursday aftn right before the
rain ends. Went with prevailing +ra from 19-22z to reflect this.

Elsewhere, expect the rain to end from SW to NE during the late
aftn evening. In addition, east to northeast winds will gust to
as high as 35 kt near the coast as the low approaches. NE winds
will still gust to ~20 kt inland.

Outlook... The low moves out Thu night with improving conditions
by Friday.VFR conditions expected for all sites Fri through
the weekend.

Marine
As of 415 pm est Wednesday...

high pressure centered N of the region has temporarily allowed
the pressure gradient to slacken enough for winds to now avg
10-15 kt except for 15-20 kt over southern waters. Conditions
will rapidly deteriorate later tonight from S to N however as
secondary area of low pressure intensifies along the carolina
coast and lifts nne with strong sfc high over new england.

Replaced the ramp-up SCA headlines with gale warnings (and
upgraded to gales for the york rappahannock river). The only
zone remaining in SCA is the upper james. With pressure falls of
~15 mb in 6 hrs progged from 15 to 21z thu, winds are expected
to reach gale force by early Thursday morning over the south and
by mid late morning farther north. E NE winds will likely gust
to 35-40 kt in the bay and southern coastal waters, and a little
higher to 40-45 kt on the ocean N of CAPE charles. Seas will
increase to 8-12 feet south and to 10-15 ft by late thu
aftn evening off the eastern shore. Bay waves will avg 4 to 6
feet with higher waves at the mouth of the bay.

A brief lull in the winds is expected late Thursday night as
the low moves off the mid-atlc coast. Winds turn to the W nw
Thursday night into Friday morning and potentially gust to gale
force once again over the coastal waters. Have extended the
gales N of CAPE charles through 10 am Fri morning for now
(elsewhere it looks more marginal so did not extend the gales
beyond thu). Winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into
Friday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain stirred up into
early Saturday morning, likely requiring additional sca
headlines. Calmer conditions return for the weekend as high
pressure settles over the region.

Hydrology
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 415 pm est Wednesday...

issued high surf advisories along the entire coast on thu.

Strong surge of E NE winds on Thu will bring cause tidal
departures to rapidly increase Thu morning. However, tidal
departures are currently minimal (and actually negative in upper
portions of the bay). Thus, even with 1.5 to 2 ft rises in
departures from current levels, most locations will only
approach or just barely get to minor flood thresholds. The high
tide of concern will not be until Thu aftn (or perhaps the
following tide early Fri morning for the ocean side of the md
eastern shore). Will continue to watch trends overnight and thu
morning but have not issued any coastal flood advisories at this
time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
mdz021>025.

High surf advisory from 10 am Thursday to midnight est
Thursday night for mdz025.

Wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Thursday for mdz024-025.

Nc... Flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
ncz012>017-030>032-102.

High surf advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for ncz102.

Wind advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for ncz017-102.

Va... Flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Winter weather advisory from 2 am to 10 am est Thursday for
vaz048-060-061-509.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Thursday for vaz095-098-
100-525.

High surf advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for vaz098.

High surf advisory from 10 am Thursday to midnight est
Thursday night for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Thursday for vaz099.

Marine... Gale warning from 7 am Thursday to 10 am est Friday for anz650-
652-654.

Gale warning until 7 pm est Thursday for anz632-634-656-658.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz630-631-635-
636.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz637.

Gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz633.

Gale warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Thursday for anz638.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri mrd
marine... Lkb
hydrology... Akq
tides coastal flooding... Lkb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 9 mi55 min N 2.9 42°F 1033 hPa30°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 10 mi37 min N 8 G 11 43°F 56°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 17 mi37 min NE 18 G 22 45°F 1032 hPa
44072 21 mi35 min NE 16 G 21 46°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 26 mi43 min NNE 6 G 9.9 45°F 1031.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi35 min ENE 18 G 23 44°F 1032.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 29 mi43 min NNE 20 G 23 46°F 1030.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 30 mi37 min 57°F1031.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 33 mi37 min NNE 16 G 19 46°F 1030.8 hPa
44087 33 mi175 min 58°F3 ft
CHBV2 35 mi43 min NE 16 G 21 44°F 1030.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi37 min N 9.9 G 12 57°F
44064 36 mi35 min ENE 16 G 19 45°F 1031.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 38 mi37 min NNE 18 G 21 1032.6 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi43 min NE 7 G 12 46°F 60°F1030.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi37 min NNE 18 G 22 44°F 1029.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 49 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 43°F 50°F1032.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA5 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair41°F33°F76%1032.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA11 mi29 minNNE 310.00 miFair42°F26°F54%1031.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA14 mi31 minN 310.00 miFair42°F30°F62%1031.7 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA16 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair39°F29°F69%1032.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA22 mi89 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast43°F29°F57%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from JGG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmN7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E9SE8
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CalmSW3W8NW11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia
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Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:18 AM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:36 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.92.12.11.81.51.10.80.60.70.91.31.82.22.42.42.21.91.51.10.70.60.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:17 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:35 PM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.32.52.52.21.81.30.90.70.81.11.62.12.62.82.92.72.31.81.30.90.70.81.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.