Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 12:04 AM   Moonset 9:13 AM

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ANZ636 York River- 340 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Through 7 pm - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Fri night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 340 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure anchors off the southeast coast through Tuesday. A weak cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 291901 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast through midweek with a ridge remaining overhead through the week. Well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend, as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 1010 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Near record high temperatures today.

Late this morning, sfc high pressure was centered off the SE coast. Under a sunny sky, temps were ranging through the 70s.
A strong upper level ridge was in place from the Florida coast nwrd into PA. Dry and hot this aftn with SW or W winds 5-10 mph N and 10-15 mph S. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90. Record highs today are generally in the 90s apart from 89 at SBY (see climate section below for more information). As such, most areas will be a few degrees shy of records except SBY, which may reach or exceed the daily record high. Mostly clear and mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Tuesday.

-Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday with a cold front passage.

Aloft, a ridge weakens Tue and Wed as a shortwave moves through. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure moves E through the Mid Atlantic and off the coast Tue into early Wed with high pressure building in behind it. This pushes a weak cold front through the area late Tue night into Wed. A few isolated showers/storms are possible across the Piedmont Tue afternoon/evening with the shortwave. Temps will once again be well above normal on Tue with highs in the upper 80s for most. SBY may once again reach or exceed the daily record high (see climate section below for more information).

PoPs increase Wed morning into Wed afternoon as scattered showers/storms develop along and behind the cold front moving through the area. PoPs have trended higher (35-55%) with the best chance for rain across SE VA/NE NC where around ~0.25" of rain is possible. The rain ends by Wed evening with dry weather expected Wed night. Highs Wed will be largely dependent upon timing of the front/rain with a faster FROPA allowing for warmer temps in interior portions of the FA. For now, have highs mainly in the lower 80s inland (locally mid 80s) and upper 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures inland continue through the weekend.

-Trending cooler along the coast with onshore flow.

-Scattered showers/storms are possible Saturday and Sunday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with above normal temps expected inland. At the sfc, high pressure builds E of the area Thu into Fri with onshore flow everywhere Thu and along the coast Fri. This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland. Highs in the mid 80s W to the upper 60s to near 70F E Thu and mid 80s W to mid 70s E Fri (coolest along the Atlantic beaches of the Eastern Shore). Additionally, with high pressure overhead, dry weather is expected both days apart from a low chance for an isolated shower/storm across the Piedmont Fri evening/night.

A cold front approaches from the W Sat into Sun, slowing/stalling once it reaches the local area. As such, the weekend looks unsettled with scattered showers/storms possible both Sat and Sun (45-50% PoPs Sat and 35-40% PoPs Sun). Shower/storm chances continue even into Mon with 25-35% PoPs. Given widespread cloud cover and scattered convection, highs will be cooler (but still mild) this weekend.
Highs in the 70s NE to lower 80s for most Sat, mid 70s NE to around 80F SW Sun, and mid-upper 70s NE to the lower 80s SW Mon. Lows remain in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this aftn into Tue aftn, with just a few CU or SCT-BKN CI expected. SW winds 5-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt will occur through the period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals into Tue night. But, there is a slight chance of a shower/tstm at RIC/SBY Tue evening. Higher chances (30-50%) of showers or tstms will be possible Wed into Wed evening, with brief flight restrictions likely in any tstms. Dry Thu-Fri.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the forecast period though some gusts to around 20 kt are possible at times.

High pressure remains centered off of the Carolinas with an area of low pressure west of the Great Lakes. This is placing the region under a persistent southwest flow around 10 to 15 knots. Seas persist around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet offshore), and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at the mouth). Southwesterly flow continues overnight and decreases with the loss of mixing. For Tue southwest winds should increase a little after daybreak with mixing resulting to 10 to 15 kt with a few higher gusts possible over the Bay and near shore waters closer to land.

A cold front approaches the waters from the north and northwest late Tuesday night pushing south past Ocean City and the Potomac River in the morning reaching the lower Bay and NC waters later in the afternoon. S to SW winds will increase slightly ahead of the front (~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Seas increase some due to the stronger S winds, with seas approaching 4 to 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape Charles Light. Winds shift to the N and NE behind the front Wednesday morning and remain around 10 to 15 kt. Generally onshore flow from the NE then E is expected from late Wednesday into Friday. Have increased the NE winds a little with this forecast updated based on the models, but winds remain below SCA criteria around 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt possible at times. Another front potentially approaches the waters later this weekend.

CLIMATE
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

4/29 4/30 RIC 94/1974 93/1974 ORF 92/1974 93/1988 SBY 89/1974 86/2017 ECG 90/1974 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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City Point (Hopewell)
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Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:46 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:55 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Westover
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Mon -- 01:02 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:06 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:33 PM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Westover, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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