Mathews, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mathews, VA

May 8, 2024 7:03 AM EDT (11:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM
Moonrise 5:05 AM   Moonset 8:07 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 529 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Through 7 am - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms late.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.

Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

Thu night - SW winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.

Fri - NW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.

Fri night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.

Sat night - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.

Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.

Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 529 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just north of the area. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through Thursday. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through Friday into Friday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mathews, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 080942 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 542 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Marginal SVR risk today for most of the region (slight risk SW zones)

- Hot today with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s

The latest WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with high pressure well off the SE coast, and a lee trough over the local area. Aloft, there are two separate areas of low pressure: one across the Dakotas/nrn rockies, and another near the sfc low over northern Michigan.
There is a weak ridge aloft locally, but that will be flattening out later today as the upper trough over Michigan translates E to upstate NY and New England by this evening.

It remains mild and dry early this morning with temperatures mostly in the 60s. Partly cloudy, except for the MD eastern shore where some low clouds and fog remain in place through the next few hrs. There is a large scale area of showers/tstms over thr OH Valley that m,may spread a shower to the far twds sunrise but for the most part this will only lead to some additional high clouds. SPC has a Marginal risk for severe for most of the CWA today, with a Slight across the SW zones (from about Farmville to Bertie Co. NC). Shear will be increasing today as the H5 gradient tightens in response to the trough moving from MI to New England. The 0-6km shear this aftn/evening will increase to ~40 kt, and ML CAPE will be 1000-2000 J/Kg (highest over the south). As such, any storms that do develop will have the potential to become severe w/ wind as the primary threat (though mid level lapse rates are modestly steeper than yesterday so some large hail will also be possible). Probably the main reason that most of the CWA is only in a Marginal is due to the lack of a trigger for convection other than a weak lee trough. PoPs this aftn will mostly hold off until late aftn/early evening and will be highest across the south (30-40%), and lowest over the NE (~20%). It will be hot with highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The bulk of guidance suggests that the best chc for storms will actually be this evening as a band of slightly steeper mid level lapse rates are progged to push through. PoPs diminish for awhile late in the evening/early thu morning, but then most of the CAMs depict an MCS potentially moving in from the W between 06-12Z Thu morning. Will show PoPs ramping up to 40-50% late. Warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s.



SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

While somewhat uncertain given the potential MCS (or remnants)
passing through the region Thursday morning, SPC maintains a SLight Risk for Severe across the entire FA. This as the mid level wind field increase further (H5-H7 flow to >50kt), along with the approaching upper trough leading to height falls and provide more widespread forcing for ascent. The timing will be tricky and have enough support for high chc to low-end likely PoPs Thursday morning (this could be one of the relatively rare cases where we see decent tstm activity during the morning hrs).
The degree to which this AM shower/storm activity lingers into the late morning/midday hrs Thursday could have impacts on the aftn instability to some extent. However, it is notoriously difficult to time these features (even in the <24 hr timeframe)
and the models tend to perform poorly in their development and evolution. Damaging winds and large hail continue to look like the most likely threats from any storm. Given the frontal forcing, it seems probable that storms would eventually grow upscale in a linear or broken line feature, with widespread damaging winds becoming increasingly favored. Low- level hodograph curvature is also somewhat enhanced near the front, though high LCLs would argue against a robust tornado threat.
With more clouds around, high temps will be cooler and generally in the upper 70s/lower 80s N to the mid/upper 80s SE. PoPs diminish from W to E Thursday evening, then dry overnight.
Turning cooler Thu night with lows in the upper 50s-low 60s.

Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across VA and the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA At this time, severe wx is not expected. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible far S). PoPs are highest over the SE (~50%) and lowest over the far W. Drying out Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W to the lower 50s E.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the model agreement is improved compared to yesterday's 12Z runs.
The main WX maker will be yet another shortwave dropping SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday. This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat aftn, with low chc PoPs pushing into the NW by late aftn, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC. The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the lower MS/Tn VAlley. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon- Tue (highs mid/upper 70s).

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR/LIFR on the eastern shore as an area of marine fog and low stratus has spread inland, with VFR conditions elsewhere under BKN mid/high clouds. Winds are mostly light/variable. Flight restrictions across the eastern shore should improve through 12Z (lingering the longest at the Atlantic coast), otherwise partly sunny and mainly dry with WSW winds through the rest of the morning into the mid/late aftn period. Widely scattered mainly late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop, with enough of a chc between ~21Z today and 03Z/Thu to include VCTS(lower chance at SBY so did not include it there). IFR VSBYs will be possible in any tstms, along with strong gusty winds.

Outlook...Active pattern on Thu with at least a chc for showers/storm all day (even in the morning). Some strong storms will be possible. Drying out from W to E Thu evening, then VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers/isolated tstms redeveloping Fri aftn into Fri evening. Mainly dry Sat, but another chc for showers Sat night into Sunday.

MARINE
As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure remains off the Southeast coast with multiple areas of low pressure over the Plains and another low centered near Michigan. Flow aloft is largely from the SW between a closed low over the northern Plains and ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are S at 5-10 kt early this morning with waves around 1 foot and seas 2-3 ft.

Satellite and surface/buoy observations show improving visibility across the northern coastal waters and the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. Visibility may still fall to 1 to 3 SM at times in patchy fog early this morning. SW winds will generally stay in the 5-10 kt range today ahead of weak lee troughing over inland areas. Guidance is mixed with respect to the potential and coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the waters this afternoon/evening. However, the environment will support strong storms if they are able to form and locally enhanced winds/waves/seas are likely in and near any convection that is able to materialize. Sub-SCA flow continues Thursday and with somewhat greater potential for strong storms (highly dependent on how convection evolves upstream). Flow becomes westerly on Friday as the surface front crosses the region. 00z guidance has come into better agreement showing a period of cold advection/stronger NW winds Friday night into early Saturday. This period may require SCA headlines in subsequent forecasts. The NNW surge looks to be short-lived with SE flow reestablishing for the second half of Saturday.
Another front potentially moves through the region on Sunday with winds becoming NW behind the boundary, though currently forecast to stay below SCA thresholds. Waves will generally maintain 1-2 ft through the period but could increase to 2- 3 ft Friday night/early Saturday. Near-shore seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft more prevalent out near 20 NM.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday...

A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal flooding on tonight's high tide cycle. Tidal anomalies remain around 1 foot early this morning with light southerly flow.
Water levels along bay-facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas.
Locations along and adjacent to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere, nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be impactful enough for additional statements.

CLIMATE
Record highs for today May 8th:

* RIC: 92 (1936)
* ORF: 95 (1880)
* SBY: 93 (1936)
* ECG: 91 (2010)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44072 10 mi40 min S 5.8G9.7 68°F 1 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 15 mi40 min S 5.8G7.8 67°F 66°F0 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 15 mi46 min SSW 9.9G12 71°F 68°F29.72
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi46 min S 12G13 29.77
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 19 mi46 min SSE 5.1G6 67°F 65°F29.76
44087 23 mi38 min 67°F1 ft
CHBV2 24 mi46 min SSW 5.1G7 68°F 29.71
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi94 min 0 67°F 29.7165°F
44064 26 mi40 min SW 3.9G5.8 65°F 65°F1 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 26 mi46 min SW 12G13 72°F 29.73
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 28 mi46 min SW 7G8 71°F 29.74
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 28 mi46 min 68°F29.77
44041 - Jamestown, VA 30 mi40 min SSE 1.9G3.9 70°F 72°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 32 mi46 min SSW 8G11 70°F 29.75
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 32 mi46 min SSW 6G8 71°F 29.74
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 35 mi46 min SSW 6G7 67°F 70°F29.72
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 40 mi46 min SW 2.9G5.1 70°F 69°F29.75
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 41 mi38 min 64°F2 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi46 min SW 7G8.9 70°F 70°F29.70
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi40 min SW 9.7G12 66°F 66°F0 ft


Wind History for York River East Rear Range Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA 20 sm68 minSSW 0610 smMostly Cloudy72°F66°F83%29.72
KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA 20 sm69 minSW 0510 smPartly Cloudy70°F66°F88%29.73
KFAF FELKER AAF,VA 24 sm68 minSSW 0510 smPartly Cloudy72°F66°F83%29.70
Link to 5 minute data for KLFI


Wind History from LFI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
   
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New Point Comfort
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New Point Comfort, Mobjack Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2
1
am
1.2
2
am
0.5
3
am
-0.1
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-0.2
6
am
0.4
7
am
1.1
8
am
1.8
9
am
2.3
10
am
2.4
11
am
2.2
12
pm
1.8
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
-0.2
5
pm
-0.1
6
pm
0.5
7
pm
1.3
8
pm
2.1
9
pm
2.7
10
pm
3
11
pm
3


Tide / Current for Browns Bay, Mobjack Bay, Virginia
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Browns Bay
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:49 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:12 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Browns Bay, Mobjack Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2.1
1
am
1.3
2
am
0.5
3
am
-0.1
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-0.2
6
am
0.4
7
am
1.2
8
am
1.9
9
am
2.5
10
am
2.6
11
am
2.4
12
pm
1.8
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
-0.3
5
pm
-0.1
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
1.4
8
pm
2.3
9
pm
3
10
pm
3.3
11
pm
3.2


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Wakefield, VA,





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