Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday September 20, 2018 5:20 AM EDT (09:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 400 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Through 7 am..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 400 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slide E through new england today, then moves offshore Friday. A cold front will cross the local waters late in the weekend, before stalling over the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VA
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location: 37.38, -77.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200817
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
417 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds over the mid atlantic region today, and
then slides offshore on Friday. A cold front will approach
from the north Saturday, and then settle over the region on
Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 415 am edt Thursday...

* NWS surveys have determined that there have been 8 confirmed
tornadoes from 9 17 2018. See pnsakq for details.

The current surface analysis shows 1022mb high pressure centered
over southeastern canada, with the associated sfc ridge axis
centered from the northeastern us to central va. There is a weak
frontal boundary that stretches from areas of fog have developed
over the far western northwestern counties, with visibilities
dropping to below 1 mile in a few spots (especially over louisa
county). Elsewhere, there is just patchy fog with visibilities
averaging between 2-5 miles. Expect the patchy fog to persist
through the remainder of the overnight before quickly burning off
shortly after sunrise. A weak sfc boundary moving in from the N ne
has already passed through the lower md eastern shore. This boundary
will continue to push S SW through the day today. Behind the
boundary, some low clouds have already moved over the md ern
shore and may reach coastal SE va by sunrise.

High pressure slides across new england during the day today before
moving offshore by late this evening. Mainly onshore flow behind the
front, with partly-mostly cloudy skies near the coast (w mainly
partly cloudy skies inland). Highs over the ERN shore are expected
to be in the upper 70s with onshore flow coupled with higher
cloud cover, while highs are still expected to be in the low-mid
80s well inland. Cam guidance is hinting at a few isolated
showers over the western third of the CWA during the
afternoon evening as we reach peak heating. Not expecting
anything of significance with this activity, but much like
yesterday, a brief downpour or two cannot be ruled out. Went
ahead and introduced slight chc pops west of i-85 i-95 to
account for this potential.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
As of 415 am edt Thursday...

the ridge of sfc high pressure moves to the south and east of the
area by Friday as a strong area of sfc low pressure moves into
southeastern canada. At the same time, a 500hpa anticyclone
becomes centered over eastern nc by Friday afternoon. Therefore,
expect winds to turn back to south on Friday (which will lead
to slightly warmer temperatures throughout the region). Forecast
highs Friday are in the mid 80s in most areas (with lower 80s
on the eastern shore) under mostly sunny skies.

The 500hpa anticyclone slides offshore Saturday as a cold front
approaching from the north Saturday. Latest 20 00z ECMWF cmc
move the front through the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA by
Saturday evening, while the GFS cmc are slower with the front.

Regardless, expect scattered showers tstms to develop across cwa
during the day on Saturday and persist through Saturday night as
the front stalls meanders over the cwa. Currently have pops of
40-50% across the northwestern two-thirds of the CWA on Sat with
20-40% pops farther southeast. Forecast highs on Saturday are in
the low-mid 80s across the north and mid-upper 80s from the
richmond metro area southward.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

an unsettled period next week as the models continue to show a
frontal system stalling across the mid atlantic region with several
impulses of energy progged to move along it. What is different today
than yesterday is that the data suggests the boundary sags south of
the local area Sunday through Tuesday resulting in a moist NE flow
and insitu-wedge scenario. Thus, thunder has been taken out of the
forecast for those periods. The boundary returns north as a warm
front tues and Wed allowing thunder chcs to return. Upshot will be
to keep chc pops each period under pt to mstly cldy skies for now.

Highs Sun Mon in the mid 70s NW to lwr 80s se. Highs tues Wed upr
70s to mid 80s. Lows in the 60s to near 70 se.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 200 am edt Wednesday...

low pressure is centered well off the mid-atlantic coast with high
pressure over eastern canada. Under mainly clear skies and light
winds due to the area of high pressure trying to ridge into the
region, patchy fog has developed from the piedmont to south-central
va. In addition, phf sby have reported some ifr lifr fog mist
during the past hour. Periods of ifr lifr visibility restrictions
due to fog will likely persist through 12z at phf, with the fog
persisting through at least 09z at sby. Elsewhere, fog should
largely stay away from the terminals for the remainder of the
night. Any remaining fog should burn off around or shortly
after 12z this morning. GOES ir satellite is showing a low cloud
deck just north and east of the lower eastern shore. This cloud
deck could possibly affect sby after after 08z tonight with
mainly bkn MVFR ceilings as it slowly moves to the sw. CIGS at
sby should then lift toVFR from by late morning or early aftn.

The onshore flow will bring enough low level moisture to allow
for bkn cloud cover at the other TAF sites from mid morning into
the mid aftn with a period of MVFR CIGS possible through
midday, generally lifting toVFR in the aftn. Winds will be ne
5-10 kt (up to 10-15 kt near the coast), shifting to the E by
the afternoon.

Outlook... High pressure slides offshore Thursday night into Friday,
skies will be mostly clear. A cold front approaches from the n
Saturday, with low pressure tracking along the boundary Saturday
night into Sunday bringing a chance of showers. High pressure builds
n of the region Sunday into Monday. Unsettled conditions are
expected Sun Mon with occasional flight restrictions possible.

Marine
As of 220 am edt Thursday...

sfc hi pres tracking slowly across new england through today
will result in NE to E winds generally 10-15 kt. Scas over the
ocean waters are for (marginal) seas of 4-5 ft. High pressure
moves offshore Thu night into Fri W the wind becoming SE then
s AOB 15kt... W seas subsiding to 3-4 ft by fri. Generally sw
winds 10-20kt Fri night into sat. A cold front crosses the
coast later Sat aftn into Sat night W the wind shifting to n
then ne. Onshore flow is expected to continue Sun into early
next week as the front stalls and sfc hi pres builds N of the
local waters.

Hydrology
As of 945 pm edt Wednesday...

cancelled the river flood warning for city locks. River flood
warnings continue for james river at richmond westham, the
appomattox river at mattoax, and the meherrin river at lawrenceville.

Water levels have crested and are now falling. At mattoax, the
level has dropped slightly below flood stage but is expected to
go back above flood stage Thu night Fri so will keep the warning
going. See flsakq for more site-specific details.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 220 am edt Thursday...

onshore flow will slowly push departures back up over the bay
and there is some potential for minor coastal flooding into the
eastern shore and the northern neck along the bay by the high
tide tonight early Fri morning.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652-654.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz eri
near term... Eri
short term... Ajz eri
long term... Mpr
aviation... Eri lkb
marine... Ajz alb
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi50 min WSW 1.9 69°F 1018 hPa69°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi32 min 73°F 80°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA8 mi24 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F96%1019.6 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA10 mi26 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist69°F66°F93%1018.3 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA15 mi41 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist64°F62°F94%1017.9 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA22 mi26 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW4NW5NW7NW7N10
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N6NW8N9N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm
1 day agoS5S5S4--SW7W7SW4SW5S3CalmCalmNW9NW5NW5--NW5W6NW4NW5NW5NW4NW5NW4NW3
2 days agoSE10SE10
G15
SE11SE11SE8SE11S10SE9SE9SE54
G14
S9W7--W8S8S9--S10S9S7--S7
G15
S6
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Haxall, James River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.