Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:22PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 1:35 AM EDT (05:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:05PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 1252 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S early in the afternoon, then becoming W late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..NW winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1252 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure centered to the north of the region slides offshore late tonight through Wednesday. Low pressure develops off the carolina coast before tracking across the region on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VA
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location: 37.38, -77.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200258
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1058 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains near the local area tonight then slides
offshore of new england Wednesday. The next low pressure system
impacts the region on Thursday. Drier weather expected Friday
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 1055 pm edt Tuesday...

surface high pressure is centered from the NRN mid-atlantic
coast to near CAPE cod as of 00z, with low pressure organizing
off the sc coast. Mostly clear this evening, with the exception
of partly to mostly cloudy conditions over NE nc. Temperatures
range through the 30s to low 40s with a light ese to ene wind.

Current trends depicted by rap, hrrr, 20 00z 3km NAM depict a
quicker arrival of moisture from the S (associated with the
developing low). Therefore, increasing clouds are expected
overnight (especially s) and also some spotty light rain (20%
chc) is possible late over NE nc. Lows tonight will mainly be
in the 30s to low 40s, with some upper 20s N where the sky will
remain mostly clear overnight.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 1050 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres slides offshore of new england Wed W a coastal
trough sitting offshore of the carolinas. Mostly sunny N and nw
through midday, with increasing clouds toward s-central SE va-
ne nc during the day Wednesday. Given aforementioned trends in
high-res data, pops have been increased Wednesday. However, it
will take some time to moisten the boundary layer, with light
rain arriving into NE nc SE va by aftn (chc NE nc during the
morning). A strong trough digs through the oh tn valleys wed
night then to the E coast by late thu... W sfc lo pres
developing off ERN nc. Lo pres is forecast to track nne near the
coast (nam farthest W more inland... GFS farthest E just off the
coast) late Wed night- thu... Spreading ra into the fa from the
s. Will increase pops to 60-80% after midnight Wed night and
continue through Thu morning before beginning to taper off from
sw to NE late in the day. QPF 1 2 to 3 4 inch. Drying clearing
out by late Thu night and dry a bit breezy fri.

Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s at the coast... M-u50s inland. Lows
wed night from the u30s N and W to the m40s e. Highs Thu ranging
through the 50s. Lows Thu night from the u30s W to the l40s se.

Highs Fri in the l-m50s on the ERN shore to around 60f
elsewhere.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 225 pm edt Tuesday...

sfc hi pres and dry wx settle over the local area for the
weekend (though a bit breezy Fri night into sat... ESP ern
portions). By mon... That sfc hi pres will be off the SE conus
coast while lo pres and its associated cold front will be
starting to take shape gather moisture from the oh valley to the
lower ms valley. The cold front will be pushing S through the
area Mon night into Tue morning W a trailing area of lo pres
tracking by to the S as colder sfc hi pres builds SE out of
canada. The 12z 19 GFS appears to be having low level sfc
temperature issues and is forecasting a winter storm (esp across
srn SE va-ne nc). Have thrown that scenario out right now due
to those issues (and the fact that each time cold air has chased
ra this winter... There was very little or no sn). Will increase
pops to 50-80% (for ra) across much of the fa Mon night into
tue morning then begin to taper the pops down from NW to SE into
tue night.

Lows Fri night from the l30s along-w of I 95 to the u30s along
coastal SE va-ne nc. Highs Sat in the l-m50s at the coast in
va-md to 60-65f inland. Lows Sat night in the m-u30s inland to
40-45f at the coast. Highs Sun in the u50s-l60s near the bay and
on the ERN shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Lows Sun night in
the m-u40s. Highs Mon from 60-65f near the bay and on the ern
shore to the u60s-l70s inland. Lows Mon night in the u30s NW to
the m40s se. Highs Tue in the m-u40s N and NW to the m50s se.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 745 pm edt Tuesday...

high pressure remains centered off of CAPE cod tonight into
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure organizes off the sc
coast late tonight into midday Wednesday. This will result in a
6-12kt wind at ecg while the wind at other sites is forecast to
be calm to light out of the NE tonight. Mostly clear tonight
into Wednesday morning, with the exception of sct-bkn clouds
~7kft at ecg. Low pressure lifts nwd Wednesday aftn with clouds
increasing across the region along with a slight chc of light
rain at ecg. A NE wind of 10-15kt is expected at orf ecg during
the day Wednesday and AOB 10kt at ric sby phf.

Low pressure pushes nwd across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will result in flight restrictions with lowering
cigs and limited vsby in ra br. Drier air arrives from the nw
Thursday night. However, a secondary trough drops across the
region Friday, which has the potential to bring a gusty NW wind,
clouds, and a few light showers. High pressure builds across the
region Saturday into Sunday.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Tuesday...

afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered from ERN oh
to md, with a broad area of low pressure well off the southeast
us coast. Winds are mainly out of the N or NE at 10-15 kt
across the va md marine zones (highest S lowest n). Over the ne
nc coastal waters currituck sound, winds are in the 15-20 kt
range. Seas remain around 5 ft (even nearshore) over anz658,
while seas are mainly in the 2-3.5 ft range elsewhere as per
buoy obs (perhaps closer to 4 ft at the va nc border). NE winds
will remain in the 15-20 kt range through the night over NE nc,
while winds remain 10-15 kt range elsewhere (perhaps a bit
higher over the ocean from CAPE charles to the va nc border).

Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20 kt over the lower bay lower
james river overnight at the typical elevated sites. In
addition, seas will likely hover around 5 ft off the NE nc coast
through the day on wed.

Winds are progged to decrease Wed aftn-wed night as the
pressure gradient (briefly) relaxes. Low pressure develops off
the carolina coast early Thu then tracks NE toward the region
during the day before departing Thu night-early fri. While there
is still some disagreement in the 12z 19 models regarding the
exact track strength of the low, model consensus tracks the low
from nc to SE va to the DELMARVA region. This would bring a
period of marginal sca-level southeasterly flow during the day
on thu, so went ahead and increased the magnitude of SE winds
with this forecast package (although didn't quite go to sca
levels). Regardless, it is looking highly likely that scas will
be needed for elevated seas (and possibly winds). Continue to
expect at least some changes to this portion of the forecast to
change over the next couple of model cycles given the degree of
uncertainty in the forecast. As for headlines, scas have been
extended through midday Wed for the currituck sound due to 20 kt
gusts. Went ahead and extended the SCA to Thu am for anz658
(for persistent 5 ft seas). The SCA for anz658 will likely have
to be extended further in upcoming forecast packages, but did
not want to go beyond 4th period W headlines.

Robust west and northwesterly flow will follow in the wake of the
low pressure with high pressure approaching from the west, a
tightening pressure gradient, and modest cold advection as the low
deepens to our northeast. A stronger surge of CAA is progged to
enter the area Fri night-sat am. SCA headlines are looking
very likely for Friday into Saturday for most (if not all)
marine zones. Some of the guidance is hinting at the potential
for high-end scas Fri night-sat am.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for anz658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Wednesday for anz633.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Ajz alb
short term... Ajz alb
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Eri rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi65 min Calm 35°F 1030 hPa30°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi47 min E 8.9 G 12 44°F 49°F1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA8 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair31°F25°F79%1031.4 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA10 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair34°F26°F73%1029.9 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA15 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair28°F23°F85%1029.5 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA22 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair30°F21°F72%1030 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N34E6NE75N9NE85E6CalmNE3E3E4SE5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmE4CalmE3N5NE3NE4NE5E46E5N5N10
G18
N965E6E4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW5
2 days ago3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N7334W10W11W93SW8CalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:53 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.12.233.33.22.721.40.70.2-0.1-0.10.61.72.73.33.432.41.71.10.50

Tide / Current Tables for Haxall, James River, Virginia
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Haxall
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:43 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:34 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:00 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.82.73.23.22.92.21.50.80.3-0.1-0.20.41.32.333.33.12.51.91.20.60.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.