Nassawadox, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nassawadox, VA

May 14, 2024 4:31 AM EDT (08:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM
Moonrise 10:40 AM   Moonset 12:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 357 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday evening - .

Through 7 am - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds.

Today - S winds 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers late.

Tonight - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.

Wed - E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. Showers likely.

Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers.

Thu - N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu night - N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft.

Fri night - E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.

Sat - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Sat night - S winds 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 357 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system crosses the area later today through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds. Low pressure then lingers near the area into Thursday, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 140747 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another round of showers returns to the region today, with periods of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms continuing through Wednesday. Warmer with additional showers and storms late Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers overspread the region from SW to NE today.

- The heaviest rain is expected from late this afternoon through the first part of tonight before rain tapers off early Wednesday morning.

- The highest rainfall totals (up to 1-1.5" with locally higher amounts) are expected to be in SE VA and NE NC, with 0.5-0.75" in most other locations.

Early morning wx analysis shows high pressure offshore with low pressure near the MO/AR border gradually tracking eastward. A closed upper low is tracking across MO with SW flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. Mid to high level clouds have overspread the area as WAA aloft has begun. In addition, a few light showers have moved into the Piedmont.

The low pressure system is progged to approach the area today and widespread showers will overspread the area from SW to NE through the day. Rain will likely be ongoing across nearly the entire area by 6 PM or so as rather strong mid-level forcing/lift arrives from the SW and PWs climb to 1.6-1.8". We will likely remain on the cool side of the system as a warm front sets up to our south and tries to approach this evening. As a result, there will only be a few hundred J/kg of sfc-based instability...which will lead to some locally heavier showers but am not expecting much in the way of thunder before 4-6 PM. Highs likely don't get out of the 60s across portions of the Piedmont, while areas to the east see temps in the low to mid 70s as the precipitation will start later in the day. QPFs through 8 PM are close to 0.5" across the Piedmont with lesser amounts near the coast (although coastal areas will see heavier rain tonight).

A secondary low is progged to begin developing along the frontal boundary across NC this evening before moving into NE NC tonight and finally pushing offshore Wed AM. As a result, the heaviest rain is expected between 5 PM and 1 AM along and to the N/NE of the low track. At this time, this would still put the highest QPFs (1-1.5" w/ locally higher amounts through tonight) across SE VA and NE NC.
QPFs in most other locations are in the 0.5-0.75" range during this timeframe. In addition, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two this evening-tonight (mainly along/S of I-64) as some elevated instability tries to make it into the area. Rain should taper off from SW to NE early Wednesday morning as the deepest moisture (along with the strongest mid/upper forcing) pushes offshore. Temps will fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s tonight with breezy SE winds (gusts to 20-30 mph) developing near the coast just ahead of the deepening secondary low.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers linger over the area on Wednesday with cooler temperatures (60s) likely across northern portions of the area and 70s to near 80F in NE NC.

- A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across southern VA and NE NC.

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist.

On Wednesday, the surface low will track NE along or just offshore of the VA coast while the upper low currently over MO becomes an open wave as it tracks from west to east before gradually moving offshore Wed night/early Thu. The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the VA coast through a good part of Thursday. Wednesday will likely be overcast with light rain or drizzle across northern portions of the area with temps holding in the 60s with a N-NE wind while it will warm well into the 70s in extreme SE VA/NE NC with a westerly wind with showers and a few tstms developing during the day as the upper low/trough approaches. It is important to note that there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday especially with respect to temps (which will depend on the exact track of the low). If it is farther south than shown my model consensus (like the NAMNest shows), temps will struggle to get out of the 60s across much of the area. On the other hand, if the farther north and slower ECMWF solution verifies, it will warm into the 70s farther north than expected (with more tstm coverage during the aftn but less in the way of low clouds/light rain/drizzle).
Regardless, additional QPFs on Wed are no higher than a few tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts expected in tstms.

A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the aftn. Temps rise to ~70F on the eastern shore with mid to upper 70s inland. There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Highs Thu once again in the mid/upper 70s well inland to lower/mid 70s along the coast. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s-60F with dry wx expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-Warm weather is expected late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday and especially this weekend.

Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible west of I-95 late in the day. Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another shortwave trough approaches from the SW.
While it is still 5 days out, the best chance for showers/tstms appears to be on Saturday (highest coverage likely during the aftn/evening), with lingering showers possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend. Drier wx returns early next week with temps warming above average.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the morning but deteriorating conditions are expected later today-tonight as a low pressure system approaches. Showers will overspread the terminals from SW-NE from late morning (at RIC) through the evening (near the coast). Clouds lower today as well, with the potential for MVFR CIGs at RIC by late morning-midday, with the remaining sites not experiencing MVFR CIGs until late aftn/evening. CIGs eventually lower to IFR tonight at all of the terminals (w/ LIFR possible after 06z).

In addition, the showers could be heavy at times INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG between 00-06z (with a slight chc of a tstm). MVFR VSBYs are expected with brief IFR VSBYs possible in the heavier showers. The wind will mainly be SE-SSE 8-12kt, with gusts up to 20kt possible at PHF/ORF/ECG from late aftn-tonight. Periodic flight restrictions continue Wednesday with scattered showers and potentially a few aftn tstms across srn portions of the CWA
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A low pressure system brings small craft advisory conditions to most of the local waters from late this afternoon through early Wednesday.

- Elevated north of northeast winds potentially linger into Thursday.

Elongated high pressure is located offshore of the area this morning. Southerly winds are averaging 10-15 kt. Seas are around 3 ft, with waves 1-2 ft. Earlier small craft advisories for the Chesapeake Bay were allowed to expire and/or cancelled early.
Similar wind and wave conditions are expected through the rest of this morning into the early afternoon. Complex sfc low pressure then develops along the Southeast coast later this afternoon, slowly progressing NE and then over the area late tonight into early Wednesday. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of this feature will allow SSE winds to increase to 15-20 kt late this afternoon in the Chesapeake Bay (highest in the srn bay and at the mouth). From this evening into tonight, the low moves closer to the area with SE winds ramping up to ~20 kt in the srn coastal waters and Currituck Sound.
A tongue of higher winds (associated w/ enhanced pressure falls)
will gradually move northward into the rest of the coastal waters (on the nrn side of the low) into early Wednesday. Small craft advisories have been issued for all of the waters (except the upper rivers) for frequent gusts to 25-30 kt, starting at 20z/4 PM today in the srn bay, 23z/7 PM for the upper bay and lower James, 2z/10 PM for the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and then early Wed morning for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles.
Waves in the bay become 2-4 ft tonight. Seas will also increase to 4- 6 ft, potentially up to 7 ft given the onshore flow. However, the relatively brief nature of the elevated easterly winds should prevent the nearshore seas from getting too high. Elevated seas persist longest in the nrn waters, so opted to drag out the current SCA there through early Thursday.

Winds then become N-NE for most of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the low meanders offshore to our E.
Depending on the location of the low, wind speeds will may hover near SCA criteria, so additional headlines may be needed in the future. Much lighter E or SE winds (~10 kt) are forecast Friday and Saturday. Another low pressure system may affect the region Sunday, though winds largely look to remain sub-SCA.



AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi43 min SSW 8.9G11 63°F 65°F30.01
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi43 min SSE 12G13 30.06
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi43 min S 11G13 65°F 65°F30.05
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 31 mi31 min S 14G16 64°F 66°F2 ft
44072 32 mi31 min S 14G16 64°F 1 ft
44089 32 mi35 min 57°F3 ft
CHBV2 32 mi43 min S 7G8.9 65°F 29.99
44064 34 mi31 min SSE 12G16 62°F 65°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi35 min 64°F3 ft
44087 35 mi35 min 66°F1 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi43 min SSE 7G8.9 63°F 30.03
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi43 min S 6G8 65°F 68°F30.00
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi43 min S 11G14 65°F 29.99
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi43 min 68°F30.03
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi43 min S 8G11 65°F 30.01
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi43 min SSE 6G8 65°F 30.01


Wind History for Wachapreague, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 17 sm23.9 hrsS 0510 smClear30.02
Link to 5 minute data for KMFV


Wind History from MFV
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
   
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Tue -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
3.8
1
am
4.3
2
am
4.4
3
am
4.1
4
am
3.3
5
am
2.4
6
am
1.6
7
am
1
8
am
0.7
9
am
0.8
10
am
1.2
11
am
1.9
12
pm
2.6
1
pm
3.3
2
pm
3.8
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.3
5
pm
2.6
6
pm
1.9
7
pm
1.4
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
1.3
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
2.4


Tide / Current for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
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Tue -- 01:17 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:05 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
3.8
1
am
4.1
2
am
4
3
am
3.4
4
am
2.6
5
am
1.8
6
am
1.2
7
am
0.7
8
am
0.7
9
am
1
10
am
1.5
11
am
2.2
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
3.3
2
pm
3.6
3
pm
3.3
4
pm
2.7
5
pm
2.1
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
2
11
pm
2.6


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Wakefield, VA,




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