Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nassawadox, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 27, 2017 11:51 AM EDT (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:41AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1012 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1012 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary stalls over the region through the weekend, with several waves of low pressure tracking along the boundary. A cold front pushes across the waters on memorial day. High pressure slowly builds in through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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location: 37.4, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 271439
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1039 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will sink south through the region late this
afternoon into tonight. The front will drop into the carolinas
Sunday, and then return north as a warm front Sunday night.

Another cold front approaches from the northwest on memorial
day.

Near term through tonight
Current GOES wv imagery reveals a shortwave trough tand
associated surface low pressure tracking across tn and ky this
morning. Mostly clear locally this morning with temperatures
warning rapidly with mid 70s to near 80 by 10 am. May need to
bump up afternoon highs a degree or two. The trough will dig
ese today, with the surface low following suit and tracking
across central SE va late this aftn through the evening.

Conditions remain dry through midday and even into later
afternoon at the coast, before the chc for showers tstms
increases during the aftn into the evening. Storm develop acorss
central va later this afternoon and then race east and southwast
towards the coast.

0-1km MLCAPE values are progged to reach 1000-1500 j kg, with a
decent mid upper level speed MAX resulting in 0-6km bulk shear
of 40-50kt. Downdraft potential is rather high along with hail
and lightning potential given thermal profiles. Severe
thunderstorms are possible this aftn and evening with areas
along and S of the i-64 corridor in a slight risk area. The main
threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Mostly sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny, and
mostly cloudy late. Forecast highs range from upper 70s to near
80 over the ERN shore to the low mid 80s inland W of the bay.

The chc for showers tstms diminishes nw-se overnight tonight
with lows generally in the 60s.

Short term Sunday through Monday
The initial shortwave trough pushes offshore Sunday morning,
with shortwave ridging building over the mid-atlantic. The
surface cold front drops into the carolinas Sunday with N ne
flow developing across the region in the wake of the mid-level
trough and surface cold front. Variably cloudy with some patchy
morning stratus or fog possible. Cooler over the ERN shore with
highs in the low mid 70s and locally upper 60s at the immediate
coast. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s from the wrn
shore of the bay through coastal SE va nc nc, with low mid 80s
for central SRN va and interior NE nc.

The surface boundary returns newd into the region late Sunday
aftn into the evening and early overnight hours. This will
combine with another shortwave trough resulting in an increasing
possibility of showers tstms during the evening and overnight
hours. 0-6km bulk shear rapidly increases to 35-45kt after 00z
resulting in a chc of a few strong to marginally severe tstms
mainly during the evening. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s.

A cold front will be crossing the mountains Monday morning, and
then continue ewd Monday aftn. Additional showers tstms are
expected memorial day aftn evening. There is some model
disagreement with respect to coverage, so pops will remain
30-50%. Increasing wsw flow aloft ahead of a trough digging
across the great lakes will yield 0- 6km bulk shear values of
40-50kt. This will combine with 1000-2000 j kg of 0-1km mlcape
resulting in the potential for severe thunderstorms. Partly
sunny then mostly cloudy on memorial day with highs ranging
through the 80s, with the potential for near 90 se, and 70s
along the atlantic coast of the ERN shore.

Long term Monday night through Friday
A frontal boundary will push south of the area Tue morning, with
weak high pressure providing mainly dry wx for Tue aftn thru wed.

More unsettled wx with chcs for showers or tstms then expected
wed night thru fri, as a frontal boundary will linger over the
region or acrs the carolinas. Highs will mainly range fm the
upper 70s to mid 80s thru the period, with lows ranging fm the
upper 50s to the upper 60s.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions prevail this morning and into early this aftn.

Scattered showers and tstms return to the region later this
aftn, becoming most probable from about 18-20z through
00-03z sun. There is a potential for some strong storms with
strong wind gusts being the main concern (and brief heavy
rain reduced vsby).

Otherwise, the wind will shift to the N NE later tonight and
become E SE during the day Sunday. Some lower CIGS MVFR-ifr
conditions are possible Sun morning. A chc for showers tstms
returns Sunday evening night and again Monday aftn evening.

Minimal chcs for aftn evening showers tstms persist into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Marine
Latest surface analysis places a weak ridge of high pressure over
the water with an area of low pressure over the ohio valley. Winds
are generally light and variable, with speeds at or below 10 knots.

Waves ~1 foot and seas 1-2 feet. The ridge axis slides offshore this
morning as low pressure approaches from the northwest. An associated
cold front reaches the waters this afternoon. Flow becomes south to
southeast around 10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Low pressure pushes across
the waters tonight as the front drops over north carolina. Flow
becomes northerly at 10-15 knots. Low pressure stalls offshore
Sunday as high pressure nudges in from the northeast. Flow becomes
onshore through Sunday evening at 10-15 knots. The next area of low
pressure lifts over the eastern great lakes region Sunday night and
into eastern canada on memorial day. A trailing cold front reaches
the waters late Monday into Monday night, stalling along the coast.

The front washes out as high pressure slowly builds in from the west
through Wednesday. Winds generally at or below 15 knots. High
pressure prevails through the end of the work week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz alb
near term... Ajz jao
short term... Ajz alb
long term... Tmg
aviation... Ajz lkb
marine... Sam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi51 min S 5.1 G 6 69°F 69°F1013.2 hPa (+0.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi51 min SE 6 G 7 1013.7 hPa (-0.5)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi51 min SSE 9.9 G 12 68°F
44096 26 mi60 min 64°F1 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 31 mi41 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 1013.7 hPa
44089 32 mi51 min 65°F2 ft
44072 32 mi41 min SSE 9.7 G 12 69°F
44064 34 mi41 min 5.8 G 9.7 69°F 1013 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi39 min 65°F2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 35 mi51 min SSE 9.9 G 12 69°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.0)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi51 min SE 8.9 G 12 71°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 36 mi51 min SE 7 G 8.9 70°F 67°F1012.7 hPa (-0.7)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi51 min ESE 7 G 8.9 74°F 69°F1012.7 hPa (+0.0)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi51 min ENE 7 G 7 71°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.5)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi51 min 69°F1012.9 hPa (-0.7)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi51 min S 1 G 2.9 77°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.8)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi51 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1013.1 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA17 mi56 minSE 510.00 miFair74°F3°F6%1013.5 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:16 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:20 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:16 PM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.12.81.2-0.2-0.9-0.70.11.22.43.54.143.32.21-0.2-0.9-0.70.21.52.94.35.35.5

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:45 AM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:34 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:02 PM EDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.13.72.10.5-0.6-0.9-0.20.92.33.64.54.642.91.70.4-0.6-0.9-0.21.12.84.45.76.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.