Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Enon, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:23PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:23 AM EST (12:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:20PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 653 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Thu..S winds 15 kt, becoming W in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming nw late. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 653 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Winds continue to diminish this morning as arctic high pressure builds into the area. The high moves off the coast Tuesday. Another area of low pressure approaches the region Wednesday night with strong southerly flow by Thursday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Enon, VA
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location: 37.4, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221111
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
611 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure moves off the coast this evening. A series
of low pressure systems will track northeast along the mountains
Wednesday and Thursday. The associated warm front lifts north
of the area Wednesday with the trailing cold front crossing the
region late Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 200 am est Tuesday...

ridge axis overhead this morning slowly pushes to the coast by 00z.

After a frigid start, temps begin to moderate a bit under mstly
sunny skies. Highs low-mid 30s north, mid-upr 30s south.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
As of 200 am est Tuesday...

sfc high remains near the coast this evening then pushes farther
offshore after midnite. Despite an increase in high clouds, temps
quickly drop back into the 20s after sunset. Clouds continue to
increase thicken ahead of the next system apprchg from the west
after midnite. Temps then steady out or begin to slowly rise into
the upr 20s to lwr 30s late.

Models differ on some vry light upslope moisture progged to move ne
across the piedmont arnd 12z wed. Oddly, the GFS is dry while the
nam SREF show some spotty light pcpn dvlpng east of the mts. Given
temps arnd 32, thermal profiles suggest this pcpn falls as lgt fz
rain fz drizzle for an hour or two arnd 12z Wed from about cxe-fvx-
lku. Will carry this in the grids ATTM but no headlines anticipated
given low confidence this will actually occur.

Otw, a warm front lifts north across the local area wed. Models now
backing off on the amount and coverage of pcpn wed. Expect most areas
to stay dry except for wrn NRN most zones where 20-30 pop will be
kept. Much warmer with temps ranging from arnd 50 NW to lwr 60s sern
coastal areas.

Strong southerly flow Wed night into early Thu will keep mins warm
wed night before the arrival of the more widespread rain after midnight.

Lows 45-50 north west to low-mid 50s se. Low pressure tracks across
the area late Wed nite and Thu morning before exiting off the coast
thu aftrn. Strong lift and SRN stream moisture noted for periods of
mdt to lclly hvy rainfall for about a 6-8 hr period at any given
location (generally west of i-95 prior to 12z Thu and along east
of i-95 from 12-18z thu). QPF amounts will avg 0.75" to 1.25".

Models also differ on just how fast the moisture exits Thu aftrn.

For now will split the diference and go with pcpn tapering off
to some light rain or sct shwrs late thu. Highs Thu in the 50s
except lwr 60s se. Any lingering rain exits the coast Thu eve
behind the systm. Decreasing clouds colder. Lows mid 20s-mid 30s.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 230 am est Tuesday...

a secondary, dry cold front crosses the region during the day Friday.

Am not expecting much in the way of pops with this system. Highs
only make it up into the 40s Friday afternoon with temperatures
dropping into the upper teens to 20s across the region for Friday
night. Dry and cool conditions will persist for the first half
of the weekend as high pressure remains in control during this
time period.

22 00z runs of both the gfs ECMWF have backed off on the threat
for a storm system late in the weekend across the area. Adjusted
the grids a bit but did keep slght chc pops in to allow later
shifts to drop raise pops as needed based off later model trends.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 615 am est Tuesday...

vfr conditions thru the forecast period as high pressure moves off
the coast thie eve. Some high level clouds overspread the area
late with a mid level cloud deck overspreading the piedmont after
midnite. N AOB 10 kts wind slowly shift to the south later today.

Outlook:
low pressure and assctd frontal bndrys will affects the area wed
into thurs. This system will likely bring more rain and flight
restrictions, especially from 06-18z thu. High pressure briefly
returns Thursday night, before another cold front sfc trough crosses
the area on Friday (conditions look to remainVFR Thu night and fri).

Marine
As of 300 am est Tuesday...

conditions are improving across the marine area early this morning
as high pressure builds into the region. Winds are decreasing from
north to south with northwesterly winds 15-20 knots for the bay and
ocean zones north of CAPE charles light with 15-25 knots for points
south. Waves are running 1-3 feet in the bay with seas 4-7 feet
offshore (highest values near and south of the va nc border).

Decided to extend the SCA until 15z for the southern offshore zones
to reflect a slower decrease in seas for these areas this morning.

Winds will decrease further today as high pressure settles overhead.

Winds will swing around to southerly as the high moves offshore late
this evening with generally 10-15 knots expected in the bay and
offshore. Low pressure to our west will approach the area on
Wednesday. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will increase
15-20 knots and seas build 3-5 feet offshore with waves in the bay
increasing to 2-3 feet. The low and its associated cold front will
cross the region late Wednesday and early Thursday. Latest guidance
is suggestive of a period of southerly gales for the offshore
zones Thursday morning with significant pressure falls and
robust 925mb winds in excess of 50 knots. Will hold off on
issuing a gale watch with this package given some model
disagreement and the fact that the threat is 4 periods away.

Winds will become northwesterly behind the front but it appears
significant cold advection will be lacking with this system and
winds should stay near or below SCA thresholds. Seas build 5-9
feet (especially north) early Thursday with 3-4 foot waves
expected in the bay. Conditions are forecast to improve for the
end of the week as high pressure returns.

Equipment
As of 200 am est Tuesday...

the kakq radar will remain down until further notice due to a
mechanical failure.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi53 min NNW 2.9 17°F 1039 hPa7°F

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi29 minN 410.00 miFair14°F3°F64%1040.2 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA12 mi87 minN 010.00 miFair12°F6°F77%1040.6 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA19 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair12°F6°F77%1040 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA22 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair12°F6°F77%1040.5 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE5E6E9E6E8E10E9SE9E9E9E11SE14SE15SE14SE8SW4SW5S6S6SE9S11SE19
G24
SW10S9

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:30 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:22 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.41.52.32.82.82.31.60.90.3-0.2-0.5-0.40.31.42.433.22.92.21.50.80.2-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia
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City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:00 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:36 AM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:19 PM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:18 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.111.92.42.62.41.81.10.5-0-0.4-0.4-00.91.92.632.92.41.710.4-0.1-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.