Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pamplin City, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:05PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:03AMMoonset 4:41PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pamplin City, VA
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location: 37.4, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 180538
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
138 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Warm, muggy conditions to continue tonight and into part of Friday
ahead of a cold front. Scattered to numerous showers with scattered
thunderstorms continue late this afternoon into early this evening.

A few storms may produce localized downpours along with gusty winds.

Another opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms, a
couple of which may be strong east of the blue ridge. Still
rather warm into the weekend, but with slightly less humidity.

Near term through today
As of 930 pm edt Thursday...

diurnally biased convection has dwindled to a few isolated cells
mainly north of interstate 64, with another area of light rain
from dissipating thunderstorms in the foothills of nc. Expect
just a few lingering showers overnight with some clearing giving
way to patchy fog once again. Another muggy night with low mid
70s east of the blue ridge to mid upper 60s west with some
cooler readings in the valleys.

Previous discussion...

leftover showers and storms could linger early tonight into the
nc piedmont southside va. Should see brief clearing from the
blue ridge west, and given background humid air mass that could
lead to a good coverage of patchy fog. Eastern and southern
counties may struggle to fully shake free of clouds overnight
with patchy fog mainly in cloud breaks here, while enough
southwest wind flow across the mtn empire and southeast WV to
limit fog coverage. Warm, muggy lows from the upper 60s to mid
70s.

Friday: should have a good amount of early-day cloud cover in place
east of the blue ridge, ahead of the primary cold front which 12z
nam GFS progs to be near our western doorstep by sunrise. This is
maybe a little sooner than recent guidance had indicated. Question
for Friday is on convective coverage and strength given the earlier
frontal timing and potential for morning cloudiness to slow
destabilization in the east. Should have more limited chances for
thunderstorms west of i-81 perhaps as soon as mid to late morning,
but with an increasing trend as the front makes its eastward
advance. The better chance for strong to localized severe storms is
to the northeast in northern va where deeper shear and strongest
lift is located, but a corridor of stronger storms could exist from
amherst county to surry county eastward. Heavy downpours certainly
possible along with localized gusty winds in strongest cells. Front
should be clearing the forecast area by mid to late afternoon, with
notably drier air filtering in on northwest flow. Until then, expect
another warm and muggy day in the piedmont (heat index values 95-
98). Earlier timing of frontal passage leads to lower highs in the
upper 70s lower 80s from i-81 westward, with highs mid upper 80s
east, though a few potential low 90s in the central va upper nc
piedmont.

Short term tonight through Sunday night
As of 331 pm edt Thursday...

cold front will cross east of the area Friday night taking most showers
out of the region by late evening if not sooner as evidenced by progged
lowering 850 mb moisture theta-e early on. Thus only leaving in some
low chance pops east of the blue ridge during the evening before
clearing overnight. Also may see a few upslope induced showers far west
behind the front but should be quite isolated with only a brief mention
needed. Lows mostly 60s except lingering muggy low 70s southeast.

Boundary will briefly stall just to the southeast Saturday
ahead of a rather strong trailing upstream shortwave trough that will
pivot across Saturday afternoon. This may cause some backing of the
flow including a bit of a northward jog in moisture before better
subsidence arrives behind this passing wave Saturday night. Given
rather dry forecast soundings and weak northwest flow, appears can
leave out pop mention for now, with mainly just scattered cumulus
around.

Upper flow will then flatten under slowly building heights on Sunday
with surface high pressure building in from the northwest. Forecast
profiles again indicate quite a bit of dry air aloft that should again
limit shower chances. However with moisture nearby to the south and the
low level flow turning more southeast in the afternoon, cant totally
rule out isolated convection across the far south or southwest where
guidance shows some return instability into Sunday evening. Otherwise
partly to mostly sunny at this point.

Will remain quite warm hot through the weekend given little change in
temps aloft behind the front and weak downslope flow until late Sunday.

Should be a little less humid Saturday before becoming muggy again
later Sunday with highs both days in the 80s mountains to lower 90s
piedmont.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 331 pm edt Thursday...

flat upper ridging will remain in place to start next week as surface
high pressure shifts from the mid atlantic on Monday to off the
southeast coast by midweek. This along with warming aloft within a west
to southwest trajectory should keep things quite warm and increasingly
humid from later Monday into Wednesday. Convective chances early on
appear iffy with only faint forcing later Monday when higher pwats
begin to advect back north, followed by gradual height falls on Tuesday
when deeper moisture will be somewhat back in place. Most guidance
showing only isolated showers storms mainly south east late Monday with
perhaps a scattering of storms Tuesday espcly where aided by
orographics. Highs likely around 90 east Monday Tuesday and 80s
elsewhere except possibly a little lower Tuesday far west pending
clouds showers.

500 mb pattern will once again become more amplified as another upper
low crossing north of the great lakes helps dig out an even deeper
eastern trough by the end of the period. This feature will also propel
a strong cold front toward the area Wednesday with the boundary likely
just south of the region during Thursday. Lead pre-frontal trough axis
likely to spark better coverage of showers storms Wednesday
afternoon evening, followed by cooler drier air during Thursday.

Therefore will include higher chance to low likely pops Wednesday and
then mostly residual showers southern sections Thursday pending timing
of the frontal exodus by then. Should see some cooling due to clouds
including more showers Wednesday, then cool advection behind the front
resulting in highs only 70s mountains to mid 80s east Thursday.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
As of 130 am edt Friday...

aviation conditions to be highly variable this period,
especially this morning, as we have a mix of sct bkn low mid and
high clouds around. In addition, showers from Thursday were
scattered around and already lending to fog at lwb. Thinking
clouds will scatter out enough to allow for fog and or low
clouds to form at times at most sites through 12z, thenVFR.

Confidence medium on the airports in the east with MVFR cigs,
but higher at lwb with dense fog likely. Low confidence for
blf bcb on vsbys cigs.

Models have slowed down timing of precip today with the front,
and slowed it down in the tafs to account for this, as looks
like best threat will be around late morning early afternoon
west to mid-late afternoon east. Confidence high enough per
high-res models and synoptic models to have predominant showers
along east of the blue ridge this afternoon from roa-lyh with
tempo elsewhere. However, keeping thunder vcts.

Winds will be mostly light and variable early, becoming wsw-w
4-8kts after daybreak Friday.

Extended aviation discussion...

weak high pressure will build into the area Saturday. Fog looks
to be possible again Saturday morning where it rains Friday,
though advection and light to moderate west to northwest winds
behind the front could keep fog coverage limited.

MainlyVFR conditions for the weekend under weak high pressure.

Scattered thunderstorms and periods of MVFR conditions return
next week, with late night early morning fog possible almost any
day.

Equipment
As of 755 pm edt Saturday aug 12th...

kfcx doppler radar will continue to be down for the rest of the
month due to a failing bull gear. It will only be operational
during this time frame for brief periods if an imminent
significant widespread severe weather and or hydrologic event
occurs. Operating the system for any amount of time until the
bull gear is replaced risks a catastrophic failure that would
further extend system downtime. From the 17th through the 27th
the radar will most likely be down completely as the repairs
are expected to be made during this period.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Al
near term... Al mbs
short term... Jh
long term... Jh
aviation... Rab wp
equipment... Rab wert


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmville, VA12 mi62 minSSW 610.00 miFair76°F74°F95%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from FVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S7S9N6NW5S5S9S6S3S5S5S4S4S3S3SW4
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN4S4E3CalmE6SE7S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Fri -- 01:08 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:50 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.743.83.32.621.40.90.40.30.81.82.73.33.53.22.51.81.20.70.40.30.71.8

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:40 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.943.632.31.71.20.70.30.41.12.233.43.42.92.31.610.60.30.41.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.