Thursday, May25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pamplin City, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday May 25, 2017 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:06AMMoonset 7:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pamplin City, VA
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location: 37.4, -78.64     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 242355
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
755 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

A warm front over southwest virginia will lift north tonight,
followed by a cold front moving from west to east. By Thursday
morning low pressure will be over the ohio valley with the cold
front trailing across far eastern virginia and north carolina.

Friday will be a dry day with the low well into new england.

Near term through Thursday
As of 745 pm edt Wednesday...

deep synoptic scale long wave trof was over the eastern united
states with two upper low within the trof. The trof crosses the
ohio valley on Thursday with the main trof axis moving toward
the east coast on Tuesday afternoon.

Have trimmed the tornado watch and expanded the flash flood
watch based on current radar trends and discussion with both spc
and wpc.

The threat for flash flooding will continue until the cold
front passes. Expecting rainfall rates typical in convective
storms. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.5 inches
in the piedmont of virginia and north carolina tonight. Rates of
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour would exceed what is needed for
flash flooding in parts of southwest virginia and northwest
north carolina. The flash flood watch will be expanded to
include another tier of counties from pulaski to halifax.

Cold pool aloft with the southern of the two upper lows passes over
the carolinas but 500mb temperatures still lower enough to
produce large lapse rates over southeast west virginia,
southwest virginia, and northwest north carolina on Thursday.

Capes are forecast around 800 j kg in the piedmont Thursday
afternoon. Low level moisture will erode east of the blue ridge
Thursday but will increase with the increasing west wind on the
west side of the central appalachians.

As the warm front moves north temperatures will temporarily go up
then they will cool off again behind the cold front. Definitely
a non-diurnal trend. Expecting enough breaks in the clouds east
of the blue ridge on Thursday for some Sun and temperatures
warmer than Wednesday. Blend of met mav guidance looks
reasonable for maximum temperatures on Thursday.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
As of 245 pm edt Wednesday...

Thursday night into Friday, the center of the upper low responsible
for the wet weather on Thursday will translate from near the mason-
dixon line to off the coast of CAPE cod. This transition will place
the region on the backside of the departing system within a
tightening pressure gradient. Look for winds to become gusty from
the northwest as 850mb flow is progged to peak around 40kts in the
evening. Ridgetop gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be common
with the highest peaks experiencing a few mph about that. Mountain
valleys will experience gusts more in the 20 to 30 mph range. Gusts
of any substantial nature are not expected downstream of the crest
of the blue ridge.

Precipitation will linger through the overnight hours in the form of
upslope scattered showers. The best coverage will be across
southeast west virginia with decreasing potential heading eastward
to roughly the interstate-81 corridor.

On Friday, we will gradually lose the upslope scattered showers, and
associated cloud cover, as low level winds start to back more
westerly through the day with the approach of an upper level
shortwave ridge. The arrival of drier air will also yield a
decreasing trend in coverage. The best coverage will still be over
parts of southeast west virginia, mainly during the morning hours.

The vast majority of the forecast area will experience limited cloud
cover and weak winds.

Our period of drier weather will be short lived. Friday night into
Saturday we will be watching a cold front approach and then enter
the region. Isolated showers may on the radar screen by sunrise
Saturday in the western portions of the area, but the better chances
will be during the day Saturday with the arrival of the front
combined with daytime heating.

Guidance varies on what extent the front makes it through the region
before stalling. Model are leaning towards a thunderstorm complex
potentially riding along this stalled front late Saturday night and
entering the area by Sunday morning.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start near
normal, but trend to a little over five degrees above normal by

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 205 pm edt Wednesday...

during this part of the forecast, a broad, slow moving upper low
will transition from the great lakes region to over southeast
canada. This will keep our region in a pattern dominated by a
persistent trough of low pressure across the eastern portion of the
u.S. Within this trough pattern a series of cold fronts are
expected to enter, and then move through the forecast region.

Guidance offers the first of these two to have a Sunday night into
Monday time frame, with a second during late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Both of these time frames will be periods with a greater
potential for showers and storms, with the first being more robust
than the second. However, while the area is within the overall
trough pattern, daytime heating will be enough to produce at least
isolated showers during other parts of this time period.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start the
period about ten degrees above normal. By Wednesday, readings within
a degree or two of normal are forecast.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 740 pm edt Wednesday...

wedge at 8pm extended from bath county virginia into watauga
county north carolina with each side of the more stable air
eroding, especially in the piedmont of virginia and north
carolina. Ceilings were ifr to lifr in the wedge. Moderate to
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms were reducing
visibilities into the MVFR range. High confidence in timing of
the models bringing the cold front through the region after
midnight. Once the rain begins to move northeast out of the
area, medium to high confidence that fog will form for a least a
few hours before west winds increase.

Downslope winds on the east side of the blue ridge will erode
clouds and fog once mixing begins Thursday morning. Low level
moisture andVFR stratocumulus will remain over the mountains.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in the
afternoon. Some of the stronger thunderstorms may have small
hail and MVFR visibilities.

Extended aviation discussion...

Friday will be drier with a better chance ofVFR ceilings and
visibilities. Another front reaches the area for Saturday with
more showers and thunderstorms including sub-vfr conditions
into Monday.

As of 730 pm edt Wednesday...

flash flood watch expanded into southeast west virginia. Upper
diffluence and synoptic lift will lead to heavy rain potential.

Rainfall rates may not be excessively large, however, flash
flood guidance across much of the mountains was low, below 1.7
inches in 3 hours.

The river forecast for the dan and roanoke rivers will be
updated again after 8pm based on rainfall through that time and
expected rainfall for overnight. Minor flooding is expected to
continue on the dan river at south boston and is forecast on the
dan river at paces and on the roanoke river at randolph.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for vaz007-

Nc... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for ncz001>006-

Wv... Flash flood watch until midnight edt tonight for wvz042>044-

Synopsis... Ams
near term... Ams
short term... Ds
long term... Ds
aviation... AMS jh
hydrology... Ams

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmville, VA12 mi65 minESE 6 G 1410.00 miOvercast62°F58°F90%1001 hPa

Wind History from FVX (wind in knots)
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3N5NE7NE6NE7N4N3N6NE8N5N5NE6NE4NE6NE6NE5NE9NE8NE7NE4NE6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3NE4N5N4NE4NE6N3CalmS4S3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Thu -- 03:55 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Thu -- 04:27 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:05 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.