Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:42 AM   Moonset 11:40 AM

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FXUS61 KRNK 012324 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 724 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry, high pressure will remain in control of the weather into Thursday with continued above normal temperatures. A frontal system brings wet weather to the region mainly Saturday and Sunday. Unseasonably warm temperatures and a daily threat of late day showers and thunderstorms continues early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...

No changes were made to the forecast this evening. Dry and clear conditions expected to continue through tomorrow.

As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1. Even warmer tomorrow, and within a few degrees of breaking record highs. See Climate section below for more details.

High pressure centered along the central and southern Appalachians is helping to keep skies clear, especially over the mountains. Daytime cumulus had developed over the Piedmont, and this will dissipate this evening. Lows tonight will be warm and in the low to upper 50s, with warmer temperatures along the ridgetops and parts of the Piedmont. Not expecting stratus/fog across the mountains as some models suggest, based on lack of low level moisture.

Ridging at the surface and aloft build further into the area tomorrow. Increasing 1000-850 mb thicknesses will yield high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 for much of the area.
Sunny skies and dew points in the 40s and 50s will make for a very pleasant day...just remember the sunscreen. Winds become WNW in the morning, then turn southerly by the afternoon, bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic and allowing dew points to slowly increase.

Confidence in the near term is high.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
2. More widespread coverage of showers and storms Saturday.
3. Above normal temperatures through the weekend.

An unsettled weather pattern moves into the area late in the week. Mean upper level ridging persists over the eastern US, leading to continued above normal temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend. A weak cold front approaches the Appalachians by Friday, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the mountains by Friday afternoon. The 500mb ridge shifts farther eastward, as well as the surface high that has been settled overhead for Thursday, by the end of the work week. This will allow for increased onshore flow from the Atlantic into the region, resulting in above normal precipitable water values by Saturday. As the front progresses eastward into the better moisture, expecting more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with potentially locally heavy rain, for Saturday and Saturday night.

Temperatures will still be above normal through the forecast period, although Friday and Saturday will be a few degrees cooler given ample cloud cover and rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances for showers and storms continue, greatest probability on Sunday.
2. Slightly cooler temperatures, but still above normal.

The unsettled weather pattern continues through the end of the weekend and into the next work week, with daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The ridge over the eastern US shifts east and begins to flatten as a trough crosses southern Canada Sunday into Monday. Ridging develops again over the southeast in response to a stronger upper level low that is forecast to move onshore the western coast early in the week, tracking into the central US by Tuesday. The cold front associated with the first upper low over southern Canada will reach the area Sunday, bringing the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms through this forecast period for Sunday.
Surface high pressure briefly builds into the area from the north Monday, which will likely bring a break in the rain.
However, precipitation chances increase again late Monday, as an upper shortwave crosses the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.
Southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will continue to transport moisture northward from the Gulf through the beginning of the work week, ahead of the system moving in from the west, which will contribute to continued chances for showers and possibly storms on Monday night and into Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread VFR this evening and this is expected through the 24hr TAF period. Low confidence in fog development tonight across the Piedmont region, which may impact DAN if it does develop.

Winds are generally light and variable, going calm overnight night. Winds remain light tomorrow under high pressure.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday night and the first half of Friday look VFR with dry weather. A frontal system will bring rain showers and TSRA to the region, possibly as early as Friday afternoon in the west.
This timing could easily be slowed down however, and may need to be adjusted, as happens often in the warm season. The increased chances for rain spreads to the remainder of the area by sometime Saturday along with MVFR ceilings. Chances for rain/TSRA/MVFR conditions or lower continue Sunday through Monday, mainly in the afternoon hours.

CLIMATE
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Record high temperatures for May 2

Bluefield, WV....89 in 2010 Danville, VA.....93 in 1942 Lynchburg, VA....91 in 1942 Roanoke, VA......92 in 1959 Blacksburg, VA...87 in 1942

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:14 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:51 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:07 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:46 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:39 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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