Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pamplin City, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:24PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 10:39 PM EDT (02:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pamplin City, VA
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location: 37.4, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 220125
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
925 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will ridge southeastward
tonight against the central and southern appalachians. Ridging
remains in control until late in the week as a cold front
progresses across the region. This front offers the best chance
of scattered precipitation. Above normal temperatures will then
resume over the weekend with only limited chances for additional
rain.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 925 pm edt Tuesday...

no changes needed to existing set of grids at the present time.

Latest satellite and surface observations beginning to pick up
on deck of developing lower clouds along the nc coastline
between CAPE hatteras and wilmington - advecting west and
northwestward as low level flow slowly begins to veer on
southwest side of surface ridge to north. Href model has
consistently been advertising the development of this deck of
clouds, and continues to be accurate in placement and movement.

Therefore, previous forecast thinking (see below) still seems
right on target.

As of 139 pm edt Tuesday...

surface ridge builds southward into the central va piedmont and
into the carolinas as a dry wedge boundary. The net effect this
will have is to lower dewpoints from north-northeast to
southwest and mitigate the threat for any overnight fog. Should
see good radiational cooling conditions with largely clear
skies; the exception is late in the overnight into the pre-dawn
hrs especially toward the nc foothills into the mountains. As
the wedge boundary pushes southward, it scoops up richer
moisture and returns it in light southeast low-level flow across
the central nc piedmont toward the NW nc mountains. The 00 and
12z href sky cover forecasts reflect these low clouds beginning
to fill in as soon as around 3 am. The late timing should allow
for some nocturnal radiative cooling effects to occur before
leveling off - that's the prevailing thinking here. If the
clouds come in sooner (or later
- a less likely scenario), this would affect lows in places
such as mount airy, boone, mt jefferson and wilkesboro. Kept
lows here in the upper 50s to low 60s in areas where overcast
settles in. Otherwise, looking at lows in the low-mid 50s in
most locales, and a few upper 40s in the sheltered mountain
valleys. Will see increased southeast winds across the mountain
empire into southeast WV with somewhat stronger pressure
gradient to speeds around 10 mph by morning.

Looking at another quiet afternoon for Wednesday under surface
ridging. Forecast challenge is on high temps, namely targeting
when overcast cloud cover may burn off and permit stronger
insolation to occur. While most areas more removed from this
thicker low-level cloud cover should warm up appreciably - into
the upper 70s to lower 80s, with only a few high clouds.

Guidance suggests cloud breaks may be hard to come by in the
morning into early afternoon, and potentially longer if the
inversion shown in area forecast soundings can hold. This would
bias highs for areas south of the nrv between i-77
southwestward towards watauga county closer to cooler nam-based
numbers (which are in the low 70s). Official forecast calls for
clouds to thin out by mid- afternoon, and will show low-mid 70s
readings in these areas where clouds may hold tough. Some
guidance generates a few showers or garden- variety
thunderstorms towards smyth and tazewell county but this has
varied over several model runs and will leave as dry for now.

Forecast confidence is overall moderate to high.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
As of 350 pm edt Tuesday...

the strong subtropical upper ridge will continue across the
southeast u.S. And will remain the dominant synoptic feature for
the eastern u.S. Our region will mostly remain on the northern
periphery of the ridge, which will allow short waves through the
westerlies try to erode the top end of the ridge from time-to-
time. These short waves and weak eroding of the northern
periphery of the upper ridge will lend itself to a couple of
decent chances for convection. During this period, the best
chance for such convection will be Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The big question will be how far south can the convection that
develops to our north move before dissipating during the evening
and encountering the strong 590+dm ridge to our south. The
namnest suggests that some scattered strong convection will
develop mainly from the md panhandle, far northern wv, southern
pa, and then move southeast toward northern va late Thursday.

Some of this convection could creep close to the i-64 corridor.

That of course is the big question for this period. Instability
is quite strong, once the cap can be broken, although shear is
weak. So would expect at this point, a few to scattered strong
pulse thunderstorms in northern va WV that may reach the i-64
corridor and especially some of our northeastern counties like
rockbridge over to amherst. Will need to keep an eye on this as
a few severe storms will be possible.

Thursday night through Friday night, the backdoor cold front
either washes out or lifts slightly north all while northwest
flow aloft becomes more established with the ridge now centered
to our west. While precipitation chances will not be zero, they
will trend to isolated coverage mainly over the mountains, and
any shower or thunderstorm activity will be more diurnally and
upslope driven. Instability and dynamics will be less impressive
and so will the coverage and intensity of showers thunderstorms
Friday, confined largely to differential heating and orographic
lifting across the western mountains.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be near normal
on Wednesday, but warm to readings 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
Thursday and Friday, with 80s in the west to lower 90s in the
east.

Confidence in forecast parameters
temperatures - moderate,
precipitation probabilities - moderate,
winds - moderate,
thunderstorm probabilities - moderate.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

the ridge will intensify a bit again Saturday, then start to
shift to the west Sunday as another short wave erodes the
northern periphery, similar to Thursday. This will occur as a modest
intensity short wave tracks along the canadian border and
across the great lakes. This will help to squash the ridge
southward a bit and allow yet another backdoor front to slip
southward toward the md pa border, possibly into northern va.

Just as with the front earlier in the week, this again has the
potential to fire convection in the highly unstable warm
atmosphere and some of this convection will slide southward
during the afternoon and evening again most likely reaching the
i64 corridor. So will ramp pops back up to chance levels again.

The ridge will be a feature trying to suppress convection
throughout the forecast time frame, so really do not want to go
to high with pops. Throughout most of the period, keep the
highest pops in the north furtherest away from the ridge and
closest to jet stream dynamics off to the north.

Early next week, the tendency of the latest models is to
continue suppressing the ridge to the south allowing a
baroclinic zone to linger across the area, which will result in
continued chances for at least isolated to scattered convection.

Again the GFS is more robust about this idea than the ecmwf, but
both models are tending weaker with the upper ridge early next
week, then amplify it again toward the end of the week.

Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the period, but again with 850mb temperatures remaining mostly
below 20c, we should top out in the 80s west to the lower 90s
piedmont most days of this period. Low temperatures will be
mostly in the 50s and 60s, again somewhat above normal but not
extreme.

Confidence in forecast parameters
temperatures - moderate,
precipitation probabilities - moderate,
winds - moderate,
thunderstorm probabilities - low to moderate.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 755 pm edt Tuesday...

surface ridge of high pressure expected to maintainVFR
conditions at all terminal forecast points in the blacksburg
forecast area through the 24 hour terminal forecast period
ending at 8 pm on Wednesday.

However, as ridge gradually moves northeast and then east of
the forecast area later tonight into Wednesday, low level flow
will gradually veer into the east, and then southeast -
advecting atlantic moisture northwestward. Some indication of
this already beginning in coastal nc near kilm.

At the present time, it appears that the leading edge of MVFR
ceilings, with some possible localized ifr restrictions will
reach the eastern flanks of the blue ridge and foothills southwest
of roanoke into NW nc late tonight - then persist through at
least Wednesday morning before daytime heating allows ceilings
to gradually lift back to mainly 3-5 agl range with exception
of areas immediately east of the blue ridge where upsloping will
be maximized.

Placement of axis of best low level moisture expected to be
sufficiently south of kroa kbcb and west of kdan such that MVFR
restrictions are not expected at either airport - although this
will bear close watching as tonight progresses. Otherwise, all
other terminal forecast points will be even further removed from
axis of low level moisture such that little to no threat exists
for sub-vfr conditions during the upcoming 24-hour terminal
forecast period.

Forecast confidence is high for flight categories at kblf, klwb,
and klyh, and moderate for kbcb, kroa, and kdan due to some
uncertainty in how aggressively low level moisture field will
expand north and west from off the mid-atlantic coast later
tonight into Wednesday.

Extended aviation discussion...

mainlyVFR flight conditions are expected to persist through the
extended portion of the forecast - specifically from Wednesday
night into Sunday.

Another back door front cool front will push south through the
mid-atlantic region Thursday into Friday - preceded and
accompanied by widely scattered showers thunderstorms. Although
some localized flight restrictions are possible in near some of
the stronger storms, any restriction is expected to be
relatively short-lived.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Al wert
near term... Al wert
short term... Rab
long term... Rab
aviation... Wert


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmville, VA12 mi65 minNNE 410.00 miFair65°F53°F66%1019 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Tue -- 01:08 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.61.52.63.64.143.62.92.11.50.90.40.20.51.52.53.23.53.32.82.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Tue -- 01:50 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:41 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.40.81.93.13.84.13.93.32.61.91.30.70.30.20.81.92.83.43.53.12.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.