Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:05PM Saturday September 23, 2017 7:09 AM EDT (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 409 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Through 7 am..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 409 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend, while post tropical cyclone jose meanders south of the new england coast. SWells from distant hurricane maria will begin to impact the local area waters by late this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230852
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
452 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
Post-tropical storm jose will continue lingers off the new england
coast before dissipating later this weekend. Meanwhile, high
pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern through
early next week. Hurricane maria is forecast to move northward
between the offshore atlantic waters and bermuda through the early
part of next week. A cold front is expected to cross the area by mid-
week pushing maria east of the region.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Post-tropical cyclone jose continues to linger just of the coast of
southeast new england. High pressure has centered over the
northeast. Patchy fog, some areas locally dense, has once again
developed this morning over portions of the piedmont and interior
northeast north carolina. Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. High pressure will allow for continued dry weather
and above normal temperatures today. Highs will range from the lower
80s near the coast to the mid upper 80s inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our
weather pattern over the weekend, as ptc jose weakens and shifts a
bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with nne flow
will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.

Will have to keep and eye on hurricane maria which will be moving
north off the SE coast by Sunday and Monday. Right now maria is
expected to take a course similar to jose, keeping it well offshore.

Highs sun-mon will generally be in the mid 80s, except upper 70s at
the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to upper 60s
near the coast.

Long term Monday night through Friday
A broad upper ridge is expected to prevail Monday night
through Wednesday from the great lakes across the northeast CONUS co-
located with surface high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper low
(400-200mb) is progged to drop SE from the NRN gulf coast to the fl
peninsula. The strength of the ridge and the presence of the upper
low is potentially complicating the situation with hurricane maria.

This is resulting in a westward shift in the track with the 23 00z
global models, with the tropical cyclone taking a turn toward the nw
and heading toward and approaching the outer banks during the
Wednesday Wednesday night time-frame per 23 00z ECMWF gfs. Note the
23 00z cmc appears too fast. Monitor the latest official forecast
tracks from the national hurricane center. This more westward track
would bring an increasing threat of more wind higher pops along the
coast by midweek. For now, pops and sky cover have been nudged up. A
vigorous trough eventually pushes through the great lakes
Thursday Thursday night, breaking down the ridge and pushing maria
well offshore. The associated cold front crosses the area late
Thursday Thursday night, resulting in cooler conditions late in the
forecast period.

Highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s to low 80s, Wednesday in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, low mid 80s Thursday, and the 70s Friday. Lows
Monday night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to
around 70f, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
Patchy ground fog will remain possible through early morning
mainly at ric, ecg, and phf. Fog may be locally dense at times,
with periods of ifr to lifr visibilities possible. Any patchy
fog is expected to quickly dissipate after sunrise. Outside of
any fog,VFR conditions and light winds are anticipated through
the forecast period due to the influence of high pressure over
the region.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through the weekend due to
the influence of high pressure over the region. Sub-vfr
conditions will be possible early to mid next week, primarily at
eastern TAF sites, as moist northerly flow from tropical cyclone
maria overspreads the region.

Marine
Early this morning, post-tropical cyclone jose remains centered
se of CAPE cod, and is forecast to gradually pushing ewd thru
sun while weakening. Meanwhile, hurricane maria was located
about 350 miles east of nassau, and is forecast to track to the
nnw thru today, then track nwrd thru Wed to well off the outer
banks of nc.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However, the sca
for hazardous seas will continue, and will be extended thru sun
night, as energetic ese swell will continue. Swell arrives from
maria most likely beginning Sun night, and continuing into next
week. The bulk of the forecast guidance still keeps maria just
offshore Tue into thu, before it gets kicked quickly ene out to
sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have
increased winds and seas fcst for Mon thru wed. Monitor the nhc
forecast for the official forecast track of maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through
the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what
it has been, they should stay just below flood. Will need to
watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the
bay as the swell from maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues thru today, as swell nearshore waves will be
slow to subside.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Monday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajb
near term... Ajb
short term... Ajb jdm
long term... Ajz alb
aviation... Ajb
marine... Tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 37 mi40 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi100 min WSW 1.9 64°F 1017 hPa63°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi52 min WNW 5.1 G 7 70°F 76°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi76 minNNW 39.00 miFair63°F63°F100%1017.4 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi75 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist56°F55°F100%1017.3 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi76 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------SW7W8SW7SW8SW7SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm--S4S4S4S3S3S5S4
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:45 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:07 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.30.81.92.93.53.73.42.71.91.20.70.40.30.71.82.93.63.93.73.22.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:29 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:06 PM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.30.91.82.63.13.332.31.610.60.30.30.81.72.63.23.53.32.82.11.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.