Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:55 AM EST (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:46AMMoonset 2:23PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 358 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Through 7 am..NW winds 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt... Diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 358 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Markedly colder temperatures and gusty winds will impact the marine area today in the wake of a strong cold front. Another cold front will cross the waters Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will pass near the coast Friday. High pressure will build over the area this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 130845
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
345 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Synopsis
Markedly colder air spreads across the region through this
evening, with temperatures moderating for late week into the
weekend.

Near term through tonight
Latest weather analysis reveals sfc low pressure over eastern
maine sliding toward atlantic canada. Associated sfc cold front
now well offshore of the eastern seaboard this morning. To the
south, 1026+mb sfc high pressure continues to build across the
deep south toward the tn river valley. Aloft, latest upper air
analysis shows strengthening upper trough taking on a negative
tilt, as it slides offshore of the mid- atlantic coast and lifts
across the northeast into new england. Weak shortwave ridging
on its heels bringing clearing across the region this morning.

Cold and dry today, as sfc high pressure continues to build
across the southeast. Despite westerly flow aloft, and a mainly
clear sky, afternoon high temperatures will struggle to climb
into the low to mid 30s in most spots, which represent highs
~15-20 deg below normal. Expect wind chill values to linger in
the 20s through the day with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph this
morning before gradually diminishing late.

Precip chances nudge up (slightly) tonight with the latest in a
series of clipper systems sliding from the ohio valley into the
northeast. Models remain in good agreement that this feature
will push along and north of the region, with model timing a
bit faster at 00z than 12z. Have maintained a 20% of rain snow
showers over the lwr eastern shore, mainly for a passing ra sn
shower this evening. Could see a brief flurry sprinkle farther
south into central va this evening, but have kept pops AOB 14%
with chances of measuring quite low even on cams. Otherwise,
look for an increase in clouds this aftn through evening, with
clearing late. Not quite as cold with early morning lows 25-30
inland, lower 30s SE coast.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Mostly clear dry conditions persist for Thu with temps
moderating. Highs mainly in the mid upr 40s under a partly
cloudy sky. Early morning lows in the low to mid 20
inland... Upper 20s to low 30s at the coast.

Models are a bit flatter with the upper level flow for the
Friday system. As such, expect any significant QPF to be well
off to our north. Will hang on to a slight to low end chance pop
across the md lower eastern shore for now, but would expect any
impacts to be minimal given model trend towards a more zonal
pattern aloft. Highs upper 30s to low 40s north... 45 to 50
south.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure builds back into the region for Saturday and
Sunday leading to dry conditions and a warming trend with
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and
into the 50s on Sunday. Another system approaches the region
during the day on Sunday bringing another chance of rain Sunday
into Monday. Temperatures continue to moderate into early next
week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday and Tuesday
and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Cold front now offshore early this morning, with west-northwest
winds remaining gusty in its wake through tomorrow. Gusts of up
to 25-30 kt expected through early to mid aftn. Otherwise, expect
vfr conditions all sites through the 06z TAF period.

Outlook: expectVFR conditions to then prevail for much of the
week ahead. Some mid to high clouds expected with next clipper
to cross north of the terminals late tomorrow aftn and night.

Low chance of a few flurries at sby Wed evening. Otherwise, dry
withVFR conditions for much of the latter half of the week
into the weekend.

Marine
Gale warnings remain in place through this afternoon (4pm) due to
wnw winds remaining elevated in the wake of last evening's cold
front. Gusts between 35-40 kt will be common. Kept the local rivers
(except the lwr james) in strong SCA with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5-
7 ft, with 3-5 ft waves.

Expect the gales to be replaced with scas this afternoon through
midday Thursday, as the gradient relaxes a bit ahead of the
next weaker cold front approaching from the west. Some guidance
does indicate the potential for gale gusts (~35 kt) across the
outer coastal waters tonight. Confidence in this remains low at
this time. Seas build back to 5-6 ft; waves 3-4 ft.

Next cold front crosses the waters by Thursday afternoon but with
weak CAA behind it lending to sub-sca conditions through Friday.

Next system skirts the coast Friday night with SCA conditions
possible.

Tides coastal flooding
Potential exists for some low water issues during thurs tide cycles
given the gusty offshore flow (w-sw).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
anz635>637.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz630>634-638-
650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Mpr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 37 mi25 min N 5.8 G 7.8
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi85 min W 2.9 24°F 1010 hPa8°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi37 min NNW 15 G 17 27°F 49°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi61 minWNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds28°F7°F41%1010.5 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi97 minSW 310.00 miFair19°F8°F63%1010.2 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair20°F10°F65%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4SW5SW3CalmS3S3S5S4SW5S7SW8SW12SW9SW11
G15
S8SW7S5S4S4------S6
1 day agoN5N4N5N4NW6NW5NW5NW5N5N6NW6N3W5NW63NW3CalmN3CalmSE5SE4E4SE3S3
2 days ago--------------------NE54N6N5N7N4NW5NW8N6NW8N6N4N6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:02 AM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.82.21.60.90.4-0-0.30.1122.73.23.22.82.21.50.90.4-0.1-0.20.41.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:18 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.41.91.30.70.3-0.1-0.10.31.11.92.52.82.82.41.81.20.70.2-0.1-00.61.32

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.