Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:23PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:20 AM EDT (06:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 1055 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less...increasing to 1 to 3 nm late in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1055 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will gradually slide off the coast tonight into Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday, and push through the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will slowly build into the area from the southwest Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220551
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
151 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the mid atlantic region will bring warm and
dry conditions through the weekend. A cold front will approach
from the west on Monday, and slowly push through the local area
on Tuesday. High pressure builds across the gulf of mexico
Wednesday and Thursday, as low pressure lingers from the great
lakes to new england.

Near term through today
Current analysis continues to indicate strong sfc high pressure
~1029 mb centered along the DELMARVA coast, with an upper ridge
in place from fl to the mid-atlc states. Another pleasant
evening under a mainly clear sky with thin high clouds. Current
temperatures mainly range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Later
tonight, with light easterly flow or calm conditions, anticipate
at least patchy fog to develop, especially east of i-95, though
patchy fog will be possible over south central va as well. Lows
will avg in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most locales.

A few more clouds possible early with the fog, and then late in
the afternoon due to the low level flow from the SE ahead of
the cold front (which will be entering the oh-tn valleys late) -
so may become partly sunny vs mostly sunny. Highs Sunday
ranging through the 70s.

Short term tonight through Tuesday
Mostly clear to partly cloudy Sun night with lows mainly in the
50s. By mon... Low pressure deepens over the deep south lower ms
valley while a strong upper ridge remains in place just off the
east coast. Still warm mainly dry through mid aftn mon, with
increasing pops from W to E late. Highs in the upper 70s east to
the lower-mid 70s west (where clouds thicken earlier in the
day). Latest 12z 21 GFS nam ECMWF have trended faster with the
overall timing of the front, now depicting the best lift forcing
for likely to categorical pops (60-80%) from about 06z tue
through 16z tue. With a strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in
the 60s, some isolated tstms will possible late Mon night tue
am, mainly for SE va NE nc, though the faster timing (overnight
and Tue am) will genly keep any severe threat limited. Some
partial clearing expected Tue by late morning and aftn and have
lowered pops quite a bit for Tue aftn from previous fcst (will
keep 20-40% pops in for now). Still mild with highs in the 70s
as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the local area.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected
to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Rain will taper off
from west to east with temps falling from the 60s in the
evening to 45-50f inland and 50-55f closer to the coast by
morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to
lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45f inland and 45f to around
50f by morning. Conditions generally dry thereafter (wed-sat)
as sfc high pressure builds back into the region Wed night
through Thu night. Sfc high slides off the mid atlantic coast
fri and then up off the new england coast Fri night.

Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed wed night
with highs in the 60s areawide and lows in the 40s. Temps slow
to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more
stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64f. High
pressure slides overhead Thu night and then temperatures slowly
moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50f beaches).

Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70f. Lows
fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-56f immediate coast.

Highs Sat in the lower 70s.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Sfc hi pres is situated immediately off the mid-atlantic coast
attm. Winds remain light vrb while bkn-ovc ci spreads over the
region from the wsw. Another round of fog is expected into early
this morning... W a potential for ifr lifr conditions... Mainly
at sby phf ecg. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the 06z taf
forecast period... Though W continue bkn- ovc ci... And a light
se wind of 4-8kt as hi pres remains off the mid- atlantic coast.

A cold front is forecast to track through the region Mon night
through Tue morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR ifr
conditions in rain and low cigs. MainlyVFR Tue aftn eve through
thu.

Marine
No headlines in the short term tonight thru mon. A large area
of high pressure was cntrd right over the mid atlantic region
late this aftn. Winds were generally E 5 to 10 kt with waves
1 foot and seas 2 to 3 feet.

The next chance for significant weather over the waters will
come later Mon thru tue, as a strong cold front approaches fm
the west and slowly crosses the waters. The pressure gradient
will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front later
mon thru tue, shifting to the wnw behind the front later tue
night thru wed. Small craft advisories will likely be needed
for most or all of the area Mon night tue, as the pressure
gradient should be strong enough for winds of 15-25 kt with
higher gusts. Coastal seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of
3-4 ft in the bay likely. A fair amount of uncertainty remains
tue night Wed regarding how strong the pressure gradient will be
as the models tend to keep the cold air and strong winds off to
our NW over the great lakes until thu.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Bmd
aviation... Alb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 37 mi41 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi51 min SW 1 55°F 1029 hPa54°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi51 min S 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 70°F1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi27 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds53°F51°F93%1028 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi26 minN 05.00 miFair with Haze0°F0°F%1027.8 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi27 minN 07.00 miFair53°F52°F96%1027.9 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4SW5SW3CalmS3S3S5S4SW5S7SW8SW12SW9SW11
G15
S8SW7S5S4S4------S6
1 day agoN5N4N5N4NW6NW5NW5NW5N5N6NW6N3W5NW63NW3CalmN3CalmSE5SE4E4SE3S3
2 days ago--------------------NE54N6N5N7N4NW5NW8N6NW8N6N4N6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:35 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.31.12.233.43.42.92.21.40.80.40.20.41.22.33.23.73.73.32.721.3

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:02 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:34 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.41.222.7332.51.81.20.70.30.20.51.22.22.93.33.32.92.31.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.