Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:43 PM EST (00:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:14AMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 642 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 642 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast through Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops south into the area Thursday, then washes out over the area by the weekend. Another cold front moves through the area Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220026
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
726 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast tonight.

A backdoor cold front drops south across the area Thursday, then
lifts back north as a warm front Friday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Latest msas has the sfc high off the sern coast with the cold front
approaching the mts. Sct shwrs ahead of this boundary remain west of
the local area late this aftrn. Data shows a dry and warm evening
ahead as the region remains under the influence of the offshore
high. Shwrs asstd with the backdoor cold front hold off until after
04z with the actual boundary progged to be across akq's northern
most zones by 12z thurs. Will keep low chc pops across the NRN half
of the fa after midnite, dry across the south. Airmass remains mixed
tonight so will limit any marine fog to the coastal waters for now.

Lows in the upr 40s-lwr 50s ERN shore areas, mid 50s-lwr 60s west of
the bay.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night
Challenging forecast for thurs as the position of the boundary will
determine the temp, pcpn type and chcs. Data indicates the boundary
slowly sags south into central va by 18z then stalls across SRN va
by 00z fri. Moisture fields show best support for measurable pcpn
will be north of the bndry where pcpn type will likely change from
shwrs to a stratiformed light rain drizzle cad scenario. Look for
temps to remain stdy or slowly fall thru the day north of it while
it remains unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s south. Could see
a 30 degree range in temps across the local area.

Cooler thurs night with light rain drizzle fog across the north due
to a moist onshore flow. Lows 40-45 north, 45-50 south. Kept chc
showers going Fri as front slips back north as a warm front. Highs
in the lwr 50s north to lwr 60s south. Highs low-mid 50s north, upr
60s-lwr 70s south.

Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector fri
night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid 40s ERN shore to mid-
upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs. Highs 60-65 ern
shore to the mid-upr 70s south.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface
cyclone staying over the great lakes with the surface cold front
moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be
north of i-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located.

However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that
it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian
high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a
lingering shower may persist across nc on Monday, it will most
likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday,
allowing return s-sw flow to develop. An approaching front wed
afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into wed
night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of
the forecast.

Sunday will be another warm day with s-sw flow ahead of the strong
warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in
the upper 60s lower 70s despite the +12c 850mb temps. Temps closer
to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the
high pressure builds overhead.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions to start the forecast period at all sites. A
backdoor cold front begins to approach the region from the north
after midnight. This will allow for stratus to first develop
across the north and then spread south as the front sags into
the region. Am expecting MVFR ifr CIGS to develop at phf ric sby
by 09z Thursday. Scattered rain showers, drizzle, and patchy fog
will also be possible with the backdoor cold front through much
of the day on Thursday. The front will continue to sag south
through the day on Thursday with deteriorating aviation
conditions expected behind the front. Locations further south,
including ecg, may not see deteriorating conditions until after
this forecast period. Winds ahead of the front are expected to
remain s-sw 5 to 10 becoming variable or light northeast behind
the front.

Outlook: expecting a return to ifr MVFR conditions in rain fog
in moist onshore flow Thu night Fri behind this feature. Front
slips back north of the area on later Friday into Saturday. A
second, stronger cold front will drop across the area Sunday
night, with another period of cig vsby restrictions possible
during this period.

Marine
South flow late this afternoon into tonight will continue to be
gusty ahead of the upcoming cold front. May see some gusts to 20kt
at times tonight in the bay. The cold front will slowly sag
southward across the area on Thursday, but will stall out over the
area over the southern waters. Will see north winds increase to 15-
20kt across the northern waters and 15kt in the chesapeake bay late
Thursday into Thursday night until the front starts moving back
north by Friday. May briefly see SCA conditions across the far
northern waters late Thu into Thursday evening, but it is too
marginal for issuance right now. Southerly winds will increase once
again Friday into Friday night. A cold front will move through the
waters Sunday with increasing north flow Sunday night. High pressure
overhead by Monday evening with winds less than 10 kt.

Climate
Record highs were recorded at richmond, salisbury, and
elizabeth city today. The record high was tied at norfolk.

Record high mins will likely be challenged at all climate sites.

* date: Wed 2 21
* location, observed, previous record
ric: 80, 75 (1930)
orf: 79, 79 (2014)
sby: 76, 75 (1943)
ecg: 80, 77 (2014)
* record high mins for 2 21.

Ric: 54 (1953)
orf: 58 (1953)
sby: 51 (1953)
ecg: 61 (1939)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Ajb
marine... Mrd
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi74 min S 1.9 71°F 1029 hPa62°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi44 min SSW 8.9 G 12 70°F 49°F1028.1 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA5 mi48 minS 710.00 miFair71°F63°F76%1029.8 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi50 minS 910.00 miA Few Clouds70°F62°F76%1028.1 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi50 minS 910.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S5S6S6S5S6S10SW6SW7SW6SW6S5SW6SW8
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1 day agoSW4S4S3S5S43SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmS3S3S6SW7W8SW12
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2 days agoSE6SE5CalmCalmSE4SE6SE5S4SE4SW3SE4N3--S5S3CalmS5S3S7S4S5S5S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:54 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.1-0.100.61.72.93.43.432.41.610.50.100.312.12.93.132.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:36 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.1-00.20.81.72.6332.621.30.80.40.10.10.41.122.62.72.52.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.