Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:30 PM EST (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:11PMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 1026 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..NE winds 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early in the afternoon, then becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 1026 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region today bringing gale conditions to a majority of the waters through tonight. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday into Saturday leading to calmer conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 151814
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
114 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast up the southeast and mid
atlantic coasts today, and then lift toward the new england
coast tonight. High pressure returns late tonight into Friday
and remains over the region through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1025 am est Thursday...

quick update to expire winter wx advisory over louisa and
fluvanna counties, with no sig impacts reported in those
counties via emergency management. Seeing some obs of light
snow sleet over western portions of these counties along and
west of hwy 15 corridor. However, road wx temperatures out in
this area are well into the mid to upper 30s, W air temperatures
already nudged up a degree or so into the lower to middle 30s out
in the advisory area. Additionally, best frontogenetic forcing
and dendritic oprh remains in an axis just off to the to the
w-nw of the area, likely portending to best precip rates off
into the interior northeast. Thus, while some light snow sleet
mixing in is possible through the next hour two thru midday,
light precip rates should continue to prevent any significant
wintry impacts. Therefore allowed wwa to expire. No other
adjustments needed attm, with light to moderate rain continuing
into the afternoon. Wl continue to note minor road-side areal
flooding potential in hwo with flood watch ongoing through this
evening.

As of 405 am est Thursday...

the current surface analysis places 1038mb high pressure
centered over NRN new england and 1012mb low pressure of the ga
coast. Meanwhile, GOES wv imagery places an upper low over the
mid- mississippi valley, with another area of surface low
pressure over ERN tn. This upper low is expected to move ewd
today approaching the WRN slopes of the appalachians by later
this aftn. As this occurs, the area of low pressure off the
coast will track NE along the coast and deepen today as it
reaches the va capes by later this aftn. Light rain (and some
embedded sleet over the piedmont) has reached the area early
this morning, and pcpn intensity will increase later this
morning into the aftn as deep moisture lift track into the area.

A wintry mix (sn pl fzra) is expected to become more prevalent
for a 3-6hr period over the NW piedmont as the column cool with
increasing pcpn intensity this morning. Surface t TD will
generally settle around 32 32f for the far NW piedmont, which
will result in minimal snow ice accum especially given generally
warm ground temperatures. Nevertheless, elevated surface (such
a bridges and overpasses) could become slick and a winter
weather advisory is in effect. Pcpn is all rain by this aftn
with QPF generally 1-2" across the region. This combined with
rain from earlier in the week will result in a flood risk for
creeks, streams, and poor drainage areas and a flood watch is in
effect.

Temperatures early this morning range from the low mid 30s from
the piedmont to the md ERN shore, with low 50s over the se.

Temperatures are actually expected to drop a few degrees over
the piedmont through the morning, then rise a few degrees by
aftn, while temperatures rise along the coast. Highs today range
from the mid 30s over the NW piedmont, to the mid 40s for
central va, to the 50s from s-central va to the ERN shore, and
mid 60s for coastal SE va NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
As of 405 am est Thursday...

surface low pressure is forecast to be located along the
delmarva coast by this evening, as the upper system remains to
the W over the central appalachians. The low then moves toward
long island late tonight early Friday morning and occludes. Rain
will gradually taper to showers this evening as the upper
system tracks across the NRN mid-atlantic, with drier air
arriving from the wnw as the low becomes stacked NE of the local
area. Clearing is expected sw-ne as drier air arrives with lows
ranging from the low 30s W to the low mid 40s along the coast.

High pressure returns Friday into Saturday with a mostly
clear sunny sky. Temperatures will remain below seasonal
averages with a trough over the east coast with highs generally
in the 50s Friday Saturday and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s
for coastal SE va NE nc Saturday morning.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

much quieter weather expected during the extended period. Sfc high
pressure centered over the area early Sunday morning weakens during
the day on sun, with dry seasonable weather expected throughout the
area. A weak upper-level shortwave approaches the area on late
Sunday-Monday (coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way
of rain expected with the fropa, but have pops of 15-30% for eastern
portions of the area late Sun night-mon (best rain chances will be
in coastal NE nc). NW flow aloft will prevail from Mon pm through at
least midweek, with mainly dry weather and temperatures a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Another weak upper level shortwave
may swing through the mid-atlantic on wed. The GFS is showing a few
showers moving across the area, but the ECMWF cmc keep us dry.

Decided not to add any mention of rain to the forecast attm.

Forecast highs Sunday range from the low-mid 50s NW to around 60 in
in SE va NE nc. The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs
on Mon will still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Lows Sunday
night in the mid-upper 30s inland low-mid 40s near the coast. Cooler
on both Monday and Tuesday night with lows ranging from ~30 NW to
~40 in coastal SE va NE nc.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 110 pm est Thursday...

deepening sfc low continues to lift n-ne along the carolina
coast this afternoon, spreading light rain across area
terminals. CIGS vsby are largely ifr this afternoon. Rain will
continue to taper off from sw- NE this aftn through this
evening, with some lingering light rain drizzle persisting into
late tonight. A NE wind will increase to 10-15kt inland to
15-25kt along the coast, with gusts as high as 35kt along the
coast, and ~20kt inland. CIGS are expected to remain ifr this
evening after the rain ends. Drier air arrives from the W later
tonight with the wind becoming W 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt and
conditions are expected to improve rapidly after 07-10z, with
vfr conditions persisting through Friday on a breezy west wind
(gusts to ~20-25kt tomorrow late morning aftn).

Outlook: high pressure prevails Friday night through Monday
with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 330 am est Thursday...

early this morning, observations show NE winds of around 15 to
25 knots over the waters. Seas range from 5 to 7 feet while
waves in the bay range from 3 to 4 feet. Conditions will begin
to rapidly deteriorate this morning from south to north as an
area of low pressure intensifies along the carolina coast and
lifts nne with strong high pressure over new england.

Gusts to gale force likely begin by 6 am across the southern
waters and spread north through the morning hours. E NE winds
will likely gust to 35 to 40 knots in the bay and southern
coastal waters, and a little higher to 40 to 45 knots on the
ocean north of CAPE charles. Seas will increase to 8 to 12 feet
south and 10 to 15 feet by late Thursday afternoon evening off
the eastern shore. Waves in the bay will average 4 to 6 feet
with higher waves right at the mouth of the bay.

A brief lull in the wind is expected later this evening and
into tonight as the area of low pressure moves off the mid-
atlantic coast. Winds turn to the W NW Thursday night into
Friday morning, likely gusting to gale force for the coastal
waters and bay. Gusts will once again reach 35 to 40 knots over
the coastal waters bay with higher gusts to 45 knots out 20 nm.

Winds will likely be highest in the 06-12z period over the
waters before slowly diminishing through Friday morning. As a
result of newest wind probabilities and model guidance, opted to
extend the gale warning for the southern coastal waters and bay
into Friday morning. Left headlines in the rivers and currituck
sound as is and will let the day shift evaluate the need for
any potential upgrades based on the latest data. Regardless,
winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into Friday
afternoon.

Winds and seas will remain stirred up into early Saturday
morning, likely requiring additional SCA headlines after the
gale warnings expire. Calmer conditions return for the weekend
as high pressure settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 430 am est Thursday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 1215 pm est Thursday...

strong E NE winds prevail and tidal departures are rising rather
quickly as expected. Based on current observations, have raised
a coastal flood advisory for areas along the southern shore of
the james river from surry to suffolk. Closer to the bay as well
as in areas farther north, departures are in general slightly
lower but will still be close to minor flood thresholds with the
upcoming high tide this aftn early evening. Issued a couple of
coastal flood statements to highlight these areas from sewells
pt up the western shore of the bay to lewisetta.

Will continue to monitor the trends to in case additional
advisories are needed for the atlantic side eastern shore though
it looks like this would not be until the following high tide
overnight early fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flood watch until 7 pm est this evening for mdz021>025.

High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for mdz025.

Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for mdz024-025.

Nc... Flood watch until 7 pm est this evening for ncz012>017-030>032-
102.

High surf advisory until 10 pm est this evening for ncz102.

Va... Flood watch until 7 pm est this evening for vaz048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm est this evening for vaz089-
093-096.

Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for vaz095-098-100-
525.

High surf advisory until 10 pm est this evening for vaz098.

High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for vaz099.

Marine... Gale warning until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-656-658.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz633-635-636.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz637.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz638.

Synopsis... Ajz mrd
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Ajz mrd
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Ajb
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi61 min NE 8 47°F 1019 hPa47°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi31 min ENE 27 G 32 52°F 55°F1015.7 hPa (-6.5)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA5 mi35 minENE 11 G 193.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F96%1017.2 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi37 minENE 15 G 222.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F41°F89%1016.3 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi36 minNE 11 G 164.00 miLight Drizzle42°F40°F93%1015.2 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi37 minNE 7 G 152.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F37°F89%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N6NE6NE3NE5NE4NE3N5NE3NE5NE5NE4N4N6NE10NE8
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1 day agoNW6N6NW3CalmCalmCalm4CalmN4N6N3N5N4NW4N4N7N5
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2 days agoCalmN4N3N3N3N4N3N3E4NE4NE3NE3--NW7NW7NW11
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NW8W5NW6NW5NW5NW6NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.30.90.60.40.61.222.52.92.92.62.11.50.90.60.50.61.11.92.633.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:50 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:36 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:49 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.70.40.40.61.21.82.32.52.52.31.81.20.70.50.40.61.11.82.42.62.72.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.