Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quinby, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 935 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Overnight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening...then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt...becoming se in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 935 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary along the north carolina virginia border this evening...then lifts north as a warm front tonight. A cold front pushes offshore Thursday. High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest Friday. A weak area of low pressure affects the area over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quinby, VA
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location: 37.47, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250306
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1106 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Unsettled conditions return this evening through Thursday as an
upper level trough approaches from the west. Conditions improve
on Friday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Latest GOES water vapor imagery centers deep anomalous low
pressure over the lower ohio river valley, with a plume of
moisture spreading northward along the southeast coast.

Precipitable waters, per latest gps precipitable waters, are
progged around 1.6 to 1.8 inches (150%+ of normal). At the
surface, a warm front remains just south of the local area with
an area of low pressure developing along the lee side of the
appalachians. The combination of strong dynamics, a moist air
mass, and forcing along the warm front has resulted in
widespread showers across the region this evening. The brunt of
the showers has pushed north of interstate 64 late this evening.

However, more showers are expected through the overnight period
as a potent shortwave ejects northeast from the deep south into
the southeast. The warm front lifts northward along the coast as
a meso-low develops over the forecast area ahead of the height
falls. A trailing cold front crosses the area late tonight.

These features will be the focus for additional showers through
the overnight period. Categorical pops continue. A line of more
organized showers is stretching along the cold front from near
roanoke southward toward the florida georgia line. As the warm
front lifts northward after midnight, rap hrrr guidance
indicates theta-e advection and warming temperatures dewpoints
will result in marginal instability across the southeast local
area. In addition to 30-40 knots of shear, the approaching line
of showers could be enhanced across the southeast forecast area.

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph and small hail cannot be ruled out along
the line. Drying conditions expected behind the front late
tonight, before additional chances for showers thunderstorms
Thursday. Temperatures will remain generally in the low to mid
60's through the overnight, even warming a few degrees across
the southeast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Upper low begins to lift NE across the mountains Thursday. A
strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-atlantic
during the afternoon early evening. Once again pops increase... To
~60-70% from the piedmont to central va to the md ERN shore,
with 40-50% far se. 500mb flow of 45-55 kt is expected along
with modest instability. Therefore... A few stronger to
marginally severe storms are possible. The main threat would be
wind and hail as low-level shear is minimal but a decent cold
pool aloft will exist. Additional QPF Thu aftn evening should
average up to ~0.25" with locally higher amounts possible. Highs
thu in the m70s W of I 95 to the l80s across eastern portions
of the fa.

The upper low continues to lift NE across pa ny new england
late Thu night into fri. Drier conditions finally arrive as
deep layered wnw flow develops over the region. Some lingering
mid-level energy could result in sct-bkn CU mid afternoon fri.

Otherwise... Drier and breezy with highs in the u70s to l80s,
after morning lows in the m50s W to l60s at the coast.

Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the wsw Fri night
into sat. Differing potential timing in arrival of weak S w
tracking into the fa by Sat afternoon. Combination of daytime
heating and that S W in wnw flow aloft may result in at least
sct convective development. Otherwise... Partly cloudy fri
night-sat morning... Then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon.

Lows from the u50s NW to the l60s se. Highs Sat from the m70s-
around 80f on the eastern shore to the m80s inland.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Long term period starts off Sat night into Sun with a warm front in
the vicinity and plenty of energy passing through the wnw flow
aloft. This will lead to a chance of shras tstms everywhere, with
low temps in the 60s Sat night and high temps in the low mid 80s
sun. Continued chance of rain into Mon with a weak cold front
passing through the area. Highs again in the low mid 80s. Drier
weather into Tue and Wed behind the front, but still cannot rule out
the chance of a shra or TSTM with continued cyclonic flow aloft.

High temps in the upr 70s to mid 80s both days.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
MVFR ifr conditions across the CWA and TAF sites with east flow
and lots of moisture over the region. A low pressure system
over the tn valley continues to bring lots of moisture and
precipitation over the mid atlantic region. A warm front just
south of the va border is helping to induce some convection as
the moisture moves north. The rain and thunderstorms will
prevail over the area through the night and into Thu morning.

Widespread ifr ceilings are expected during the overnight. The
low will lift into the oh valley by Thu afternoon and the precip
will move north and east of the region. Some scattered showers
will again be possible Fri afternoon but MVFRVFR conditions
across the region.

DrierVFR wx returns by Fri as weak high pressure builds over
the region. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend when
another frontal boundary affects the mid atlantic states.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows a low pres system centered over the oh
valley with a warm front stretching across the va-nc border. The
front slides north tonight, and with an increasing pres
gradient, expect SCA winds to commence over the bay late. Also
expect seas to build up to 5 ft out 20 nm late. For thu, a weak
cold front crosses the area, and SW flow may come close to sca
thresholds over the bay. Decided to just continue the headlines
there through Thu night since winds may ramp up again then.

Also, seas may continue to meander around 5 ft out 20 nm. Will
end headlines at the end of the third period attm. Lwr james and
currituck sound may potentially need to be added to the sca
thu Thu night as well. Weak high pres then builds in for fri
leading to improving marine conditions. Sub-sca conditions
expected to continue into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
A period of onshore flow and high astro tides (moving toward a
new moon) will result in elevated water levels through Friday.

Issued several coastal flood advisories and statements for
tonight's high tide cycle... Refer to cfwakq for more details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Thursday for vaz089-090-
093.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Sam
short term... Alb jdm
long term... Mas
aviation... Alb jef
marine... Mas
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi42 min ENE 18 G 20 58°F 64°F1006.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi42 min E 17 G 20 1006.3 hPa
44089 27 mi42 min 60°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi42 min E 8 G 18 65°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 32 mi32 min ESE 16 G 19 59°F 1005.2 hPa
44096 32 mi51 min 61°F4 ft
44072 37 mi22 min E 14 G 16 60°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi30 min 62°F4 ft
44064 39 mi22 min 18 G 19 60°F 1005.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 39 mi42 min ESE 14 G 17 60°F 1005.3 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 42 mi42 min ESE 19 G 23 60°F 64°F1004.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 42 mi42 min E 18 G 21 59°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi42 min E 8.9 G 15 61°F 68°F1005.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 48 mi42 min E 16 G 18 60°F 1004.7 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi37 minE 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast57°F13°F17%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E10NE11
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1 day agoNW4NW7N6NW3NW5N3NE3CalmNE4NE7E8E9
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S9S5SE3CalmCalmCalmE8N4N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:09 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:15 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.3-00.92.13.34.14.64.43.52.310.1-0.4-0.20.72.13.54.75.35.44.73.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:05 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:12 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20-0.4-0.10.92.13.44.54.84.43.52.31.1-0.1-0.7-0.40.72.23.85.265.95.13.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.