Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quinby, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:51PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:52 AM EDT (06:52 UTC) Moonrise 1:51AMMoonset 4:28PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1205 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds...building to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds late. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Seas 2 to 3 ft... Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds...becoming... Mainly ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms early in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft... Mainly N swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt...becoming E early in the afternoon, then becoming se late. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1205 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides offshore through tonight. The next cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday and then drops across the waters Friday night and stalls near the mid atlantic coast through Sunday morning. High pressure rebuilds over the area for late in the weekend into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quinby, VA
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location: 37.47, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180609
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
209 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm and humid air mass remains in place across the mid-
atlantic states tonight and Friday as the flow continues out of
the south. The next cold front will arrive late on Friday night
and exit the region by Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds
in for Sunday through early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Warm humid conditions through the overnight. Usually not much fg
when dew points in the 70s... Though will include patchy fg away
from the coast. Shras tstms have weakened as they have moved out
of the higher terrain this evening. Adjusted pops down most
places... Though kept highest pops (25-35%) across far nne areas
overnight. Lows mainly in the m70s.

Short term 6 am this morning through Sunday
The next cold front approaches late in the day on Friday into
Friday night and moves the region by Saturday afternoon. This
will be the dominate feature for this period and should produce
some shower activity with the front with the best chance for
convection across northern portions of the cwa. Further to the
south, the lift is not as strong or as organized for not
expecting as much pcpn there. So on Friday, will see some
morning showers exiting the DELMARVA and then a general wane in
precipitation. Expect to see some scattered convection due to
the heating of the day, but as the front arrives, activity
should increase. The front slowly pushes southeast overnight
reaching the SE portion of the CWA by Saturday morning. This is
a bit of a change from the 00z and 6z model runs which stalled
the front. But all the 12z guidance pushes the front to the
south of the area by 18z. So have sped up the clearance of the
pops by late Saturday afternoon.

A strong shortwave trough sweeps across the mid-atlantic states
Saturday night, but it remains north of the area and with the
low level moisture gone, not anticipating much except some mid
level clouds. By Sunday, high pressure will be over the region
with dry and seasonable weather in place.

For temperatures, will continue to see near normal weather with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day and lows in the low
to mid 70s each night except for Saturday night when the drier
air will allow temps to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Sfc high pressure builds north of the area with stacked high
pressure residing off the southeast coast through Mon night.

A thermal trough develops in the lee of the appalachians for
tue Tue night, and then a cold front is expected to track
through the area on wed... Exiting the coast late Wed night.

Conditions will become increasingly more humid with each
passing day. Sfc features rather diffuse for mon, however
seabreeze boundaries with the presence of ample moisture will
keep a slight chance for showers storms in the forecast...

primarily for the aftn early evening. Thunderstorm activity
expected to become widely scattered Tue as convection develops
invof lee trough. The frontal passage Wed wed night will
provide a better focus for more organized thunderstorms to
occur. Highs mon-wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s;
low-mid 80s beaches. Lows sun-tue nights generally 70-75f.

Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75f se.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions across the terminals this morning. A weak
boundary will move north of the area later tonight into Friday
morning. High-res models hint that a few showers are possible
around daybreak along the coast near orf, phf and ecg, areal
coverage should be low and as such will continue to keep out of
taf for now. Main story will be MVFR ifr CIGS and possible vsby
restrictions (mainly at ric) after 09z. With the wind staying
around 5 kt, still anticipate more of a lower stratus event vs.

A low vsby event at ric. Elsewhere, it should remainVFR or
MVFR with low probability of ifr expected.

A cold front approaches the region today, with showers and
thunderstorms developing and becoming more widespread fri
evening into Saturday. This will bring another chance for sub-
vfr conditions in heavier showers. Confident enough to throw
showers in at ric sby, but will keep thunder mention out for
now.

Outlook:VFR conditions returns later Sat through the weekend as
high pressure builds back into the region. Some early morning
fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Marine
A boundary remains stalled just south of the mason-dixon line
into delaware this aftn. High pressure and fog clouds earlier
this morning have hampered widespread thunderstorm development
today. However, isolated storms may still be possible over srn
waters late this aftn early evening. Winds generally SE around
10kt will increase to around 15kt and become more sly this
evening into Friday as a cold front approaches the region.

Seas waves average 2-3ft. The cold front moves over the waters
late Fri night into sat. South winds average of 15kt bay and
15-20kt ocean with the frontal passage. Seas build to 3-4ft
north of CAPE charles light Fri aftn and may even touch 5ft
for a few hours out near 20nm as the front crosses the waters.

Sca conditions still not anticipated with the increase in
winds seas Fri except with thunderstorms associated with the
front. If any headlines are necessary, they can be handled with
short-fused mws or smw products.

Winds become more sw-w with speeds AOB 10kt early Sat morning
into Sun morning as the front stalls near the mid atlantic coast,
and then become more onshore Sun aftn into Mon as the front sags
well south of the area. Seas subsiding from 2-3ft Sat morning to
2ft by Sat aftn through Mon night. Winds become S on Tue as a
thermal trough develops inland with seas building to 2-3ft. Winds
then become more SW AOB 15kt Tue night Wed as the next cold front
is expected to cross the region; seas build to 3-4ft.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ess
near term... Alb ess
short term... Ess
long term... Bmd
aviation... Mam jao
marine... Bmd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi53 min SSW 11 G 13 79°F 83°F1013.8 hPa (-1.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi53 min S 16 G 17 1014.1 hPa (-1.4)
44089 27 mi53 min 77°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi53 min S 12 G 14 79°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 32 mi43 min SW 9.7 G 12 80°F 2 ft1013.7 hPa
44072 37 mi43 min SW 9.7 G 12 80°F 1 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi53 min 79°F3 ft
44064 39 mi43 min 80°F 1 ft1013.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 39 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 12 80°F 1014.1 hPa (-0.9)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 42 mi53 min S 6 G 8.9 78°F
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 42 mi53 min SSW 8.9 G 12 79°F 80°F1013.8 hPa (-1.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 79°F 82°F1013.4 hPa (-0.9)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 48 mi53 min S 11 G 13 79°F 1013.7 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi78 minS 710.00 miFair78°F75°F94%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmSE7SE10S10SE9SE7S8SE6S6S6S8S7S6S6S5
1 day ago--------------N5N4N3NE5W3SE4SE7S5S4S5S4SE4CalmS3CalmS3SW3
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE4S4CalmN4N8----------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:22 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:46 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.311.92.93.6443.32.31.40.60.10.20.92.13.24.24.854.53.62.51.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia
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Upshur Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:16 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 PM EDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.51.1233.84.23.93.32.41.40.4-0.10.10.823.34.65.55.65.14.33.11.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.