Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 1:30 AM   Moonset 11:27 AM

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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 340 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers. Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early in the afternoon, then becoming E late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Fri night - E winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Sat night - SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 340 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak cold front crosses local waters today. High pressure breifly builds in behind the front through Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 010732 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front slowly crosses the area today triggering scattered showers and storms across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon into this evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the region. Rain chances return this weekend as a series of disturbances impact the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

A weak/decaying cold front slowly pushes through the area this morning, eventually making its way south of the area this evening. CAMs continue to focus the best shower/thunderstorm chances across northeast North Carolina (along the Albemarle Sound) later this afternoon through this evening, with lesser rain chances further north and west. Cannot completely rule out a stronger thunderstorm closer to the Albemarle Sound with the 00z HRRR showing ~1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (wind shear will be the limiting factor) developing this afternoon. If a stronger storm were to develop, strong wind gusts would be the primary threat.
Any storms that develop may also produce some locally heavy rainfall, though flooding issues are not anticipated due to the dry conditions over the past month.

Much of the area north of the North Carolina border likely stays fairly dry today, outside of a chance for a scattered shower or storm across portions of southside Hampton Roads/SE VA (~30-40% PoPs). Skies will range from partly sunny to mostly cloudy, with a gradual clearing trend from the NW this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast.
Along the coast, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s (coolest along the Atlantic beaches of the Maryland Eastern Shore).

Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset this evening, with dry conditions returning tonight. Lows will range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Models and forecast soundings continue to hint at fog development later tonight into early Thursday morning, especially for areas along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Dry weather is expected on Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US. After some AM fog, Thursday will feature mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for inland locations (may push 90 degrees in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Mild/dry conditions Thursday night with lows around 60 (mid to upper 50s Eastern Shore).

On Friday, high pressure scoots further offshore as our next low pressure system takes shape and begins to approach from the west. Additionally on Friday, we will see a backdoor cold front drop south along the Eastern Shore/Chesapeake Bay. As a result of the front, temperatures will vary widely from only the mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only lower 60s Maryland Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland. High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place, but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances increase across western portions of the forecast area late Friday evening into Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend as a series of disturbance cross the area. A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it will affect the region Saturday into Sunday night, bringing a good chance of showers/tstms across the entire area. Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temps cooler on Saturday and Sunday. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid to upper 70s SSW. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday, but there will be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Mon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF period. BKN/OVC high/mid level clouds will persist early this morning. Showers and a few storms are possible later this afternoon, mainly at ECG, so have kept VCSH and VCTS wording (best chances for storms from ~21z to 00z). Patchy fog may try to develop late in the period, especially near the coast. Winds are generally starting out SW 5-10 kt and become W and NW as a weak front drops southward. ENE winds are likely toward the end of the period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR VSBYs are possible early Thursday morning due to patchy fog. Latest model guidance really keys in on SE VA and NE NC, with the 00z HRRR showing a 70 to 80% for VSBYs less than 2SM early Thursday morning at ORF, PHF, and ECG and ~40% chance at RIC and SBY. Dry/VFR conditions are then expected later Thursday morning through Friday. There is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday night through Sunday with the next front.

MARINE
As of 235 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into the weekend.

A weak front will cross local waters later this morning. High pressure remains anchored well off the SE coast. Ahead of the front, SW winds are 10-15kt with a few gusts as high as 20kt. Through the rest of tonight and into the morning, winds will turn to the west and diminish to 5-10kt. Winds continue to turn through the day, becoming onshore by the afternoon. Light, onshore winds persist through Thursday evening. A backdoor cold front drops across the region Friday. NE winds increase to around 15kt. Remaining breezy into Saturday as winds become more easterly.

Latest buoy obs indicate 2-4ft seas. Waves are 1-2ft. As winds become light, seas drop back to around 2ft through Thursday.
Increased onshore winds allow for seas to increase back to 3-4ft.
Waves will be around 1ft through Thursday night, then increase to 2- 3ft late in the week and into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Quinby Inlet entrance
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Wed -- 01:51 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:37 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia, Tide feet

Upshur Neck
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Wed -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:23 PM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upshur Neck, south end, Virginia, Tide feet

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