Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montrose, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:20PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:23 AM EST (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:18AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 944 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
Overnight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Snow likely late this evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. A slight chance of snow late.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
ANZ600 944 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks off the coast tonight. High pressure slowly builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montrose, VA
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location: 37.53, -77.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180343
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1043 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the mid
atlantic coast this evening into early Thursday morning. The
storm tracks east northeast out to sea Thursday while high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the
gulf coast states eastward to off the southeast coast will bring
dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Thursday
night through Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Updated forecast again as of 10pm to allow the last remaining
warning to expire across greensville southampton sussex northampton
nc. Did then place these zones into a winter wx advisory into
early Thu morning to expire for most of south central va, will
allow them to remain in effect across greenville southampton sussex
northampton nc. Also, extended advisories a few more hrs for
areas to E SE of metro ric with no other changes to headlines.

Latest analysis indicates a deepening ~1013mb sfc low off to
the ese of CAPE hatteras this evening with areas of snow now
ending over NW portions of the CWA as drier air (dew pts into
single digits) are filtering in. Farther S and se, still have
areas of light moderate snow occurring across southern eastern
va NE nc and the va eastern shore. Models water vapor imagery
indicate the upper level low over western nc far SW va, with
strong mid level vorticity vorticity advection pushing into
eastern nc. Based on the latest hrrr rap model trends, and
anticipated upper level shortwave energy vorticity advection and
associated vertical motion transfer to the mid atlc coast this
evening tonight, have extended the ending times of advisories
acrs the cwa. Some enhancement of snow is now occurring across
interior NE nc and will probably end up seeing some localized
additional snow accumulations of around 2" in portions of NE nc
and possibly to a few spots in SE va. Would serve little purpose
to upgrade to winter storm warnings at this point and these
higher amounts will tend to be localized (over most areas of ne
nc only around 1" of snow has been received thus far).

Expect gradual clearing fm wnw to E between 06-12z Thu morning.

Cold with lows ranging from the lower mid teens W NW to lower
20s se. Driving conditions will still remain slick after pcpn
ends and will be issuing an sps for the overnight period to
cover slick hazardous conditions in areas that received
significant snow earlier today.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thu aftn with 850mb temps
-2 to -4c at 12z warming to +4-6c by 21z. A cold start to the
day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should result in rather
stable lapse rates and surface high temps should only reach the
upper 30s to arnd 40.

High pressure will then slide from the gulf coast states
eastward to off the SE coast Thu night thru sat, and bring dry
weather and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows Thu night
mainly in the lower to mid 20s. Highs on Fri will range fm the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri night will range fm the mid 20s
to around 30. Highs on Sat will range thru the 50s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving
fits transition of mjo through phase 4 toward phase 5... Leading to
aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system
tracking off SE CONUS coast sun... Sfc hi pres and upper level
ridging will be dominant Sun into mon. By late mon... Storm system
expected to track into the WRN great lakes... W its trailing
cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress
across the local area Mon night-early Tue W potential shras
(though 12z 17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12z 17 GFS attm).

Drying clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal
levels) for Tue afternoon-wed.

Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s
on the ERN shore to 55-60f elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly
35-40f. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ERN shore to the u50s-l60s
elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the
l50s on the ERN shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in
the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Drier air slowly filtering from the nw, with mainlyVFR
conditions now at kric ksby and pts nw. Still MVFR ifr across se
va NE nc in snow and this will persist through 03-06z,
lingering the longest across the far se. Winds will generally be
n with gusts to 25 kt near the coast overnight. Skies gradually
become sct to skc between 06-12z, with breezy N to NW winds
continuing.VFR mainly clear for the remainder of the day with
winds shifting to the W by aftn.

Outlook: predominantVFR conditions Thursday night through
Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds
across the region. Next chance for showers (rain) and flight
restrictions will arrive later Mon mon night.

Marine
Raised gale warnings for southern coastal wtrs and mouth of the
bay through Thu morning due to frequent gusts up near 35 kt
anticipated overnight. Several stations along near va beach
coast already gusting to 30-35 kt.

Previous discussion...

sfc lo pres exits off the coast this eve... W continued low
level CAA into Thursday (morning) before waning. Nnw winds will
average 15 to 25 kt... Gusts to around 30 kts - ESP near the
lower ches bay and on the ocean waters. Will need to monitor for
at least low end gale gusts this eve-tonight as the lo pres
system exits... ESP on the lower ocean waters S of CAPE charles
va. Scas have been raised to most of the ERN va rivers (through
tonight)... Otherwise no big changes to other SCA headlines attm.

High pressure settles over the area for the end of the
week... Through the weekend allowing for diminishing winds and
sub-sca conditions.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for ncz012>014-
030.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Thursday for ncz015>017-
031-032-102.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for vaz078-
084>090-092-093-096-523>525.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Thursday for vaz095-
097>100.

Marine... Gale warning until 7 am est Thursday for anz634-654.

Gale warning until 10 am est Thursday for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz635>637.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est Thursday for anz630>633-
638.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Lkb tmg
short term... Tmg
long term... Alb
aviation... Jef
marine... Alb mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi53 min NNW 5.1 26°F 1024 hPa14°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 54 mi53 min N 13 G 19 25°F 34°F1023 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA6 mi29 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast23°F10°F57%1024.9 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA12 mi29 minNNW 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast23°F6°F48%1025.5 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA24 mi20 minN 610.00 miOvercast23°F8°F54%1024 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N5N6N8N8N9N9N11N10N12N9N11N16N12N12N12N10N15
G19
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1 day agoNW4NW3CalmNE3CalmSE3E3SE3NW4E3Calm3SE3S4SE4SE6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N7N7N9N9N9N8N7N10N9NW8N8NW8NE7N6N5NE5NE6NE5NE3E3CalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Thu -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:29 PM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.10.71.72.42.82.72.31.710.40-0.2-00.61.72.6332.72.11.40.80.3

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia
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Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:51 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.41.32.22.72.92.621.40.70.2-0-0.10.31.32.433.232.51.81.20.60.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.