Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM   Moonset 3:13 PM

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ANZ636 York River- 648 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 648 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
winds remain easterly and elevated behind a backdoor cold front through tonight. The front lifts back north late tonight into Sunday. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast Monday through Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 042019 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 419 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
On and off shower chances are expected this afternoon into Sunday night. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, a backdoor front was located south and west of the CWA While, high pressure just off the New England coast was wedging cool, moist air into the Mid Atlc. That wedge will gradually erode from WSW to ENE tonight through Sun, as a warm front slowly moves ENE through the region. More energy, moisture and lift will push back into the area from the W and S this evening into Sun morning, with the highest PoPs for showers (isolated thunder) over the wrn half of the CWA Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s across the N, and in the lower to mid 60s in the S.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid Monday/Monday night with showers and storms areawide.

The front (as a warm front) will move ENE and north of the area Sun into Sun evening, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions. However, still expecting showers and some tstms to redevelop for later Sun morning into Sun evening (PoPs 30-70%). PoPs will diminish later Sun evening into Sun night. Highs on Sun will warm into the 70s across the region. Lows Sun night in the lower to mid 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Mon with high temps warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined with an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the aftn, then slide eastward into Mon evening/night. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid to upper 60s, so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows Mon night mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Tuesday through Friday.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over from Tue through Fri. A ridge aloft builds in by Tue aftn, then weakens slightly starting Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed aftn. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue at the TAF sites from this aftn into Sun aftn, as LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs will prevail, along with occasional showers (isolated thunder). There may be MVFR or VFR CIGs at ECG through the period, but the other TAF sites will mainly have IFR or MVFR CIGs . NE or E winds 6-12 kt this aftn, will become SE or S tonight into Sun aftn.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times into Mon, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sctd showers and tstms are expected at all TAF sites Sun aftn through Mon. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

MARINE
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning.

1030mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf of Maine this aftn, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks.
The wind is primarily E 10-15kt with guts up to 20kt, and somewhat less S of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the trough.
Seas are ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and 2- 3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt across the Ches. Bay and lower James later this aftn through the early overnight hours, before shifting to SE and diminishing slightly later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for these zones. Seas are expected to remain ~4ft, with 3-4ft seas in the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and 2-3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay tonight.

The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front Sunday.
with the wind shifting to SE/SSE. A SSW wind returns for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
Southerly flow should prevail through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The northern Neck remains under a Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday for widespread minor flooding.

- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.

Tidal departures remain 1.25-1.5ft above astronomical this aftn, but have been steady to slowly falling as a decent ebb tide is occurring. The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the Northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect in this area through Sunday aftn (an extension through Sunday night/early Monday morning will likely be needed). A Coastal Flood Statement continues for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding through late tonight. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as a SSE wind will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next high tide cycles, but this has not been extended given the current ebb tide. It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.

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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:09 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:40 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:47 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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