Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montrose, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:02PM Monday September 25, 2017 4:47 PM EDT (20:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:04AMMoonset 9:35PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 412 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft...subsiding to 1 foot after midnight. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 412 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered north of the area through tonight, as hurricane maria moves northward to a position about 150 miles east of cape hatteras by Wed morning. Maria will then recurve out to sea through Friday. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells and increasing seas from hurricane maria will begin to impact the coastal area today and persist through most of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montrose, VA
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location: 37.53, -77.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251947
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
347 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic through
Tuesday. Meanwhile, maria will continue to track north well off
the coast while gradually weakening. Maria lingers off the outer
banks Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead
of an approaching cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
High pressure remains anchored over the ERN great lakes and
northeast CONUS this afternoon. Hurricane maria (presently a
category 1) is situated ~300mi sse of CAPE hatteras. There are
varying amounts of cloud cover over the area this afternoon with
mostly sunny conditions north west... And low stratus stratocu
cover immediate coastal locations into SE va NE nc. There's no
pcpn to speak of at the moment as outermost bands from maria
remain off the outer banks. Based on current trends will hold
off on introducing low pops until after 00z across the
southeast. Increased low-level moisture along the immediate
coast this afternoon will quickly spread inland this evening
with overcast conditions becoming prominent most areas
overnight. Lows temps will range from the mid 60s inland to the
low 70s along the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of
due N as an upper low drops sewd across fl. Increasing moisture
and some outer banded features will result in 20-35% pops along
and E of i-95 Tuesday. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky.

Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to
15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of CAPE hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall across SE va NE nc (and coastal md to
a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less. There is still a
potential for modestly strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles
on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from orf va
beach to the currituck county beaches (including the currituck
sound). Tropical storm watches for these areas are currently in
effect which may be upgraded to warnings later this afternoon.

High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will have pops of 20-40% east of
i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night), with slight chc pops
into the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the
low mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s and low 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well offshore by late in the
day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs from the upr 70 coast to low mid
80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
MVFR to local ifr conditions are prominent along the immediate
coast and portions of SE va NE nc this afternoon. Elsewhere,VFR
conditions prevail with a clear mainly clear sky. MVFR cigs
will gradually push farther inland this evening, reaching kric
around 03z, and potentially falling to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. A NE wind of 10-15kt along the immediate coast this
afternoon tonight will increase to 15-20kt with gusts around 25
kt Tuesday morning.

Outlook: increasing moisture from maria will result in a 20-40%
chc for showers Tuesday Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg Tuesday night Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday and pushes
maria farther offshore with conditions improving
Thursday Friday.

Marine
Hurricane maria is located about 380 miles sse of CAPE hatteras
nc as of 500 am. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered
north of the area. The hurricane is forecast to track northward
well off the SE coast today into this evening, then moves to
well east of the nc outer banks by early Wed morning. The storm
will then start to track northeast Wed aftn and evening, then
accelerate ene out to sea late Wed night into Thu night. Ne
winds and waves seas will start to increase build over the
waters, esply SRN waters, this evening into Tue morning, as the
storm moves northward to well off the SE nc coast. NE winds will
increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt by Tue morning,
with waves building to 2-5 ft (near 6 ft mouth of the bay), and
seas building to 6-10 ft.

Strongest NE winds and highest waves and seas will affect the
waters Tue night into Wed night with gusts to 35-45 kt a good
bet over the SRN ches bay, currituck sound, and va nc coastal
waters. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the currituck
sound, and SRN waters from the va nc border to currituck beach
light until 12z 800 am Thu morning. Aforementioned areas above
may be added to the watch this aftn, since impacts farther
north of the watch area are not anticipated to begin until tue
evening. Elsewhere, strong solid SCA conditions (20-30kt) will
occur. Seas will build as high as 14-15 ft south and 10-14 ft
north. N winds will then diminish west to east late Wed night
thru thu.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor to possibly moderate tidal flooding could occur at many
sites in the middle to lower bay, and SRN va and NE nc coastal
waters Wed into Thu morning. High surf advisories have been
issued for tue, and lasting into wed. The combination of storm
surge and large waves could result in some coastal erosion and
damage to dune structures later Tue into Wed night.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through today, as 4-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Tropical storm watch for ncz015>017-102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz632-634-638.

Tropical storm watch for anz633-656-658.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ess
aviation... Ajz jdm
marine... Bmd tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi78 min NE 2.9 82°F 1016 hPa70°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 40 mi38 min ENE 7.8 G 12
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 54 mi48 min E 12 G 14 74°F 78°F1014.8 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA6 mi54 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F64°F49%1015.1 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA12 mi54 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds87°F66°F50%1015.2 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA24 mi53 minNE 12 G 1610.00 miFair86°F59°F40%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E8E5E4CalmCalmNW3N3CalmN4N4N6N4N5N6NE4NE8NE7N7NE12
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1 day agoN5N9NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3N6N5NW4N5N6N6N9N7
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2 days agoN7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4N4N6NE7N6NE8N8N8N9N10
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:35 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.410.70.60.91.82.73.23.43.12.61.91.30.80.60.60.91.82.83.53.73.53.1

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia
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Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:19 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:37 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.20.80.60.71.42.43.13.53.532.41.610.70.50.71.42.43.33.83.83.52.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.