Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montrose, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:44PMMoonset 8:56AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 655 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 655 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles off the southeast coast through tonight as low pressure passes north of the region. This area of low pressure drags a weak cold front through the area late tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday and then passes over the region Saturday, and then shifts off the southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montrose, VA
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location: 37.53, -77.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231933
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
333 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure settles off the southeast coast through tonight
as low pressure passes north of the region. This area of low
pressure drags a weak cold front through the area late tonight.

High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday and then
passes over the region Saturday, and then shifts off the
southeast coast Sunday and memorial day.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 340 pm edt Thursday...

severe t-storm watch 219 in effect for northern tier of counties
along and north of i-64 through 00z 8pm edt. Shortwave trough
evident on early aftn IR vis satellite sliding across the upper
great lakes this aftn, and has allowed a narrow line of
convection to re-develop across northern va SE pa. Best
forcing kinematics for strong to severe tstms remains just to
the north W central md to SE pa S nj later this aftn in a zone
of 40-50kt 500mb flow and 35-45kt 700mb flow. Ww219 now in
effect for far northern tier of counties. MLCAPE on the order of
1000-1500 j kg over this area, with CU just beginning to
develop as convective temperatures just being reached over the
past hour or so. Any tstms that do reach the area will be
capable of locally damaging wind gusts and (secondarily) large
hail. Pops are mainly 20-30% from about 20z 4p- 04z midnight.

Gradual clearing tonight as drier air arrives late tonight in
association W a weak cold front dropping across the area. A few
showers may occur coinciding with the frontal passage.

Otherwise, becoming mostly clear late W early morning low
temperatures late tonight range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday night
As of 340 pm edt Thursday...

no major changes to forecast rationale for the near term period,
with weak high pressure building in from the north behind the
front for Friday. Still rather warm, but a bit drier across the
area, as high temperatures range from the low 80s over the ern
shore (upper 70s immediate atlantic coast), to the upper 80s low
90s in downsloping deep layer NW flow. Aftn dewpoints drop into
the low mid 50s. Could have some aftn CU stratocu in association
with a weak disturbance. However, warm dry soundings should
preclude any pcpn Fri Saturday.

Latest numerical guidance depicts somewhat of a reprieve from
the anomalous heat Saturday, as high pressure passes across the
region resulting in e-se low-level flow along the coast, and
se-s flow farther inland. Forecast highs Saturday range from the
low mid 70s E (cooler along the immediate atlantic coast of the
ern shore) to the low mid 80s farther inland, after morning
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Saturday evening, there is
a slight chc of showers tstms drifting off the higher terrain
into the piedmont.

Heat is back on for Sunday... Which has the potential to be the
hottest day of the spring thus far across our region. Surface
high pressure slides well off the southeast coast as low
pressure moves into the ERN great lakes. This will result in
w-sw low-level flow, which will help boost high temperatures
into the low mid 90s inland, with upper 80s over the ERN shore,
and even mid 80s at the immediate atlantic coast. Lows Sunday
morning range from the mid 60s to around 70f.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 230 pm edt Thursday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the extended
forecast period. An upper level anticyclone remains centered along
the gulf coast early next week before expanding eastward into the
western atlantic by midweek. Our region will be under the influence
of w-nw flow aloft thru Tuesday, then SW flow aloft wed-thu. A weak
frontal boundary crosses the area Sun night and Monday, but with
only isolated showers tstms possible Sun night. The boundary
lifts back NE quickly early tues with little if any forcing for
convection leftover by afternoon under the influence of ssw flow
at the sfc and rising h5 heights. Other than a late-day tstm
possibility near the piedmont trough, Wednesday looks dry also.

Wednesday also looks to be the hottest day next week as h85
temps rise to 20-22c with deep- layered SW flow ahead of the
next potential cold front by next Thursday. Lows through the
period in the 60s to low 70s, except some mid 70s possible wed
night. Highs Mon in the 80s over the lower ERN shore to the low
90s inland. Highs Tue from the mid-upr 80s over the ERN shore to
the low 90s inland. Forecast highs on Wed are in the upper 80s
to low 90s lower ERN shore to the low-mid 90s inland.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 155 pm edt Thursday...

high pressure is centered off the coastal carolinas lower mid-
atlantic coast this aftn. Vis radar imagery showing some sct-bkn
stratus s-sw of kric this aftn, which should continue to dissipate
and move offshore over the next few hours. Main operational
issue is with MCV sliding from the NRN central appalachians
toward the mid-atlantic this aftn. Sct CU are expected to
develop by mid to late aftn, with increasing rain chances after
20z as convective line approaches this aftn. A 20-30% chc of
showers tstms (primarily from ric- sby and n) after 22z 6pm and
continuing through 04z midnight edt Friday as a trough pushes
across the region in NW flow aloft. Tstms could produce locally
stronger wind gusts along with reduced vsby in brief heavy rain.

Have maintained a tempo group at sby... But low areal coverage
at ric and pts south southeast will continue to preclude
mention in the remaining tafs for now.

Outlook: mainly dry conditions are expected Friday through the
memorial day weekend, as weak high pressure prevails over the
region. There is a low probability of iso showers tstms Sunday
evening along and N of a line from ric-sby.

Marine
As of 300 pm edt Thursday...

sca is up from 7pm thurs to 7am Fri for our northern ocean zones.

Winds this afternoon will continue to be 15-20kt (gust up to 25 kt)
for the ches bay and northern atlantic zones (lasting into tonight
for ocean). Waves in the bay will be 2-3 ft and decreasing tonight.

For the atlantic zones off the eastern shore, seas will build into
this evening up to 5 ft (warranting sca). High pressure will move in
overnight and winds and seas will decrease. Friday afternoon there
will be a surge of wind NW 15-20 kt across the northern zones as a
low deepens off the southern new england coast.

A series of high pressures will be moving into the area through the
holiday weekend and into next weekend. There will be periods of
stronger southerly winds (around 15 kt) through the extend forecast.

However, it looks like winds and seas will stay below SCA criteria
through Monday.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
As of 320 pm edt Thursday...

kakq 88d radar is back online.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am edt Friday
for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Cp
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 54 mi38 min SW 9.9 G 13 81°F 74°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA6 mi74 minSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1017.5 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA10 mi72 minS 410.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1018.4 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA12 mi74 minSW 108.00 miFair84°F69°F61%1017 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA24 mi73 minSW 710.00 miFair84°F70°F63%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE6SE4SE6SE6S4SE4S5S4S6S6S7S10S11SW11SW13SW11SW15S12S17SW11
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1 day agoNE9NE4N4N3CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmN4NE5NE6NE7E9NE6E5E435S5CalmSE9S5S7
2 days agoS4S5SW5SW43W6W4N3N6N7N7N8N9N13N9NE5N76NW8NW10N10N9N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.80.60.71.42.43.33.73.73.42.82.11.510.70.40.71.52.43.13.43.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia
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Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.70.61233.73.93.73.22.51.91.30.80.50.51.122.93.43.53.22.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.