Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montrose, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:03 PM EST (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:11PMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 210 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and drizzle in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early in the afternoon, then becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 210 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region today bringing gale conditions to a majority of the waters through tonight. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday into Saturday leading to calmer conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montrose, VA
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location: 37.53, -77.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 152051
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
351 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will along the mid-atlantic coast tonight... Toward
new england by early Friday. High pressure returns late tonight
into Friday and remains over the region through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 325 pm est Thursday...

latest wx analysis reveals deepening surface low pressre
offshore of the E nc coast. Aloft, strong mid upper low
continues to slide NE across the ohio valley toward the interior
northeast. Surface low pressure will continue to lift along the
mid-atlantic coast this evening, to a positon off just south of
long island by late tonight early Friday morning. Rain already
in the process of tapering off across the area, with IR wv
composite showing one last batch of heavier showers pushing
across the area at 20z. Behind this feature, will see some
periodic light rain or drizzle as mid-level drying ensues, with
pops turning off tonight as the upper system tracks to the north
across the NRN mid-atlantic. Clearing is expected sw-ne late as
drier air arrives with lows ranging from the low 30s W to the
low mid 40s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
As of 325 pm est Thursday...

upper level low will eject NE across the northeast toward new
england through the day Friday. Resultant w-sw downslope flow
will help to quickly scour out clouds Friday morning. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure rebuilds from the west late Friday into
Saturday, bringing a mostly clear sunny sky late Friday into the
weekend. Weak CAA at the surface will maintain temperatures
near or just below seasonal averages. Highs Friday generally in
the 50s Friday Saturday and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s
for coastal SE va NE nc Saturday morning.

High pressure at the surface builds overhead into the upcoming
weekend, with a quieter, quasi-zonal flow aloft bringing a dry,
quiet wx weekend across the local area. Maxima do moderate
slowly from Friday through Sunday, but temperatures look to
remain at or just below climo norms. Expect highs generally in
the 50s to near 60 with early morning lows generally into the
low to mid 30s inland to around 40 at the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

much quieter weather still on track for much of next week. A weak
upper-level shortwave approaches the area late Sunday-Monday
(coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way of rain
expected with the fropa, but have slight chc pops for coastal NE nc
from 06-18z mon. Looks like the bulk of the rain will fall well
offshore after the front crosses the CWA by Mon aftn. Behind the
front, sfc high pressure settles just west of the region Mon night-
tue. However, am only expecting temperatures to drop to slightly
below average. A weak shortwave caught in NW flow aloft is progged
to swing through the mid-atlantic on Wed (coupled with another cold
front). However, moisture will be lacking across the area, so this
will be another (mainly) dry fropa. Canadian high pressure then
settles over the region on Wed night-thu am before moving offshore
by the end of the day on thu.

The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs on Mon will
still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with highs in the
upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Warming back up into the
50s area-wide on thu. Lows Monday night in the low-mid 30s
inland around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Cooler on both Tuesday and
Wednesday night with lows ranging from near 30 NW to the mid-upper
30s se.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 110 pm est Thursday...

deepening sfc low continues to lift n-ne along the carolina
coast this afternoon, spreading light rain across area
terminals. CIGS vsby are largely ifr this afternoon. Rain will
continue to taper off from sw- NE this aftn through this
evening, with some lingering light rain drizzle persisting into
late tonight. A NE wind will increase to 10-15kt inland to
15-25kt along the coast, with gusts as high as 35kt along the
coast, and ~20kt inland. CIGS are expected to remain ifr this
evening after the rain ends. Drier air arrives from the W later
tonight with the wind becoming W 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt and
conditions are expected to improve rapidly after 07-10z, with
vfr conditions persisting through Friday on a breezy west wind
(gusts to ~20-25kt tomorrow late morning aftn).

Outlook: high pressure prevails Friday night through Monday
with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 330 am est Thursday...

early this morning, observations show NE winds of around 15 to
25 knots over the waters. Seas range from 5 to 7 feet while
waves in the bay range from 3 to 4 feet. Conditions will begin
to rapidly deteriorate this morning from south to north as an
area of low pressure intensifies along the carolina coast and
lifts nne with strong high pressure over new england.

Gusts to gale force likely begin by 6 am across the southern
waters and spread north through the morning hours. E NE winds
will likely gust to 35 to 40 knots in the bay and southern
coastal waters, and a little higher to 40 to 45 knots on the
ocean north of CAPE charles. Seas will increase to 8 to 12 feet
south and 10 to 15 feet by late Thursday afternoon evening off
the eastern shore. Waves in the bay will average 4 to 6 feet
with higher waves right at the mouth of the bay.

A brief lull in the wind is expected later this evening and
into tonight as the area of low pressure moves off the mid-
atlantic coast. Winds turn to the W NW Thursday night into
Friday morning, likely gusting to gale force for the coastal
waters and bay. Gusts will once again reach 35 to 40 knots over
the coastal waters bay with higher gusts to 45 knots out 20 nm.

Winds will likely be highest in the 06-12z period over the
waters before slowly diminishing through Friday morning. As a
result of newest wind probabilities and model guidance, opted to
extend the gale warning for the southern coastal waters and bay
into Friday morning. Left headlines in the rivers and currituck
sound as is and will let the day shift evaluate the need for
any potential upgrades based on the latest data. Regardless,
winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into Friday
afternoon.

Winds and seas will remain stirred up into early Saturday
morning, likely requiring additional SCA headlines after the
gale warnings expire. Calmer conditions return for the weekend
as high pressure settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 330 pm est Thursday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 1215 pm est Thursday...

strong E NE winds prevail and tidal departures are rising rather
quickly as expected. Based on current observations, have raised
a coastal flood advisory for areas along the southern shore of
the james river from surry to suffolk. Closer to the bay as well
as in areas farther north, departures are in general slightly
lower but will still be close to minor flood thresholds with the
upcoming high tide this aftn early evening. Issued a couple of
coastal flood statements to highlight these areas from sewells
pt up the western shore of the bay to lewisetta.

Will continue to monitor the trends to in case additional
advisories are needed for the atlantic side eastern shore though
it looks like this would not be until the following high tide
overnight early fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for mdz025.

Wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for mdz024-025.

Nc... High surf advisory until 1 am est Friday for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm est this evening for vaz089-
093-096.

High surf advisory until 1 am est Friday for vaz098.

High surf advisory until 7 am est Friday for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for vaz099.

Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for vaz100.

Marine... Gale warning until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 7 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-656-658.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz633-635-636-
638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz637.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Ajb
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi34 min ENE 13 53°F 1010 hPa53°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 54 mi34 min NE 14 G 22 56°F 55°F1009.3 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA6 mi70 minNNE 10 G 191.50 miRain Fog/Mist46°F44°F93%1013.1 hPa
Chesterfield County Airport, VA10 mi68 minN 93.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F44°F97%1014.5 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA12 mi70 minVar 41.25 miRain Fog/Mist44°F41°F89%1014.2 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA24 mi69 minNNW 71.50 miRain47°F44°F93%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7NE6N4N5N4N6NE3N4N7NE7NE10NE10NE10NE14NE10
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1 day agoN5N4N6NE3N7N6N6CalmN7N6N7N7N8N6NE8N7NE7NE9NE6N12N10N8N8N13
2 days agoN4NE7N6N5N6N4NE4NE7NE6CalmE6SW8NW6NW12NW7NW9NW8NW6NW4NW7N6N6N8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Thu -- 04:50 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:12 AM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:25 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.71.20.70.50.40.71.52.22.72.92.82.41.91.30.80.50.50.71.42.22.833

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia
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Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:15 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:56 PM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.40.90.60.40.51.122.62.932.72.21.610.60.50.511.92.63.13.23

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.