Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montrose, VA
May 19, 2024 5:07 AM EDT (09:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM Moonset 2:47 AM |
ANZ636 York River- 352 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Through 7 am - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Today - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 352 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system pushes off the carolina coast today, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
a low pressure system pushes off the carolina coast today, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
FXUS61 KAKQ 190733 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 333 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.
- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the 60s along the coast.
High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region, especially across western and northern portions of the area (away from the coast). Therefore, we may see clearing, especially toward the later half of the afternoon. This could allow temps to rebound into the mid 70s. Continue to go on the lower side of guidance (and lower than NBM) for temps given some uncertainty on how fast the clouds scour out. Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low- level flow will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to yesterday (Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just broken-overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low-level convergence and a final piece of upper energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the Piedmont.
Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very isolated and think the latest HRRR runs are too excited regarding this potential.
Will have a small area of low-end/slight chc PoPs mainly N of Richmond.
Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly dry.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains cooler at the coast.
Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper 60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in typically cooler inland spots.
Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the week.
A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of the area.
Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40- 50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the extended period generally remain in the 60s.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through at least the rest of this morning. Latest obs indicate that CIGs are low-end MVFR in the 1000-2000 ft range for most of the area, with IFR CIGs along the Atlantic coast and in NE NC. Patchy drizzle from RIC and points NE is also causing localized MVFR VSBY. CIGs should drop to IFR for all terminals over the next few hrs, though there may be occasional clearing that turns skies BKN- SCT. CIGs could also drop to LIFR, but confidence in this is lower and guidance has generally backed off on this. Patchy fog (2-4 SM VSBY) could develop W of I-95 through 12z. Gradual improvement is expected later today with slowly lifting CIGs and a slow clearing trend. All terminals should be MVFR by 16z/12 PM and improvement to VFR is possible in the later aftn inland.
MVFR continues along the coast for most of the period. Light NE winds expected at RIC and SBY this morning with 5-10 kt winds at PHF, ORF, and ECG. NNE winds ~10 kt expected this aftn.
Outlook: CIGs likely degrade back to MVFR of IFR Sunday night, potentially lingering along the coast Monday. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
-Increasing NE wind and seas today. Small craft advisories are in effect for southern portions of the marine area.
1030mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends SW through New England and into the northern Mid- Atlantic. Meanwhile, weak low pressure is tracking E off the Carolina coast. The wind is NE 10-15kt north to 15-20kt S, with seas 3-4ft north to ~4ft south. The guidance has backed off some on the strength of the wind. Regardless, a persistent NE wind of 15-20kt should still allow seas to build to 4-6ft today through Monday. SCAs remain in effect for the ocean south of Chincoteague, the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Elsewhere, the wind should mainly be NE 10-15kt. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later Monday aftn into Monday night as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub- SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek. A cold front settles into the region later Thursday into Friday bringing a chc of tstms. Conditions will primarily be sub-SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast today through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves.
HYDROLOGY
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from yesterday will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday....
Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding during high tide later this evening into the early overnight hours, and this will likely continue into early this week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 333 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.
- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the 60s along the coast.
High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region, especially across western and northern portions of the area (away from the coast). Therefore, we may see clearing, especially toward the later half of the afternoon. This could allow temps to rebound into the mid 70s. Continue to go on the lower side of guidance (and lower than NBM) for temps given some uncertainty on how fast the clouds scour out. Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low- level flow will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to yesterday (Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just broken-overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low-level convergence and a final piece of upper energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the Piedmont.
Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very isolated and think the latest HRRR runs are too excited regarding this potential.
Will have a small area of low-end/slight chc PoPs mainly N of Richmond.
Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly dry.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains cooler at the coast.
Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper 60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in typically cooler inland spots.
Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the week.
A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of the area.
Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40- 50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the extended period generally remain in the 60s.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through at least the rest of this morning. Latest obs indicate that CIGs are low-end MVFR in the 1000-2000 ft range for most of the area, with IFR CIGs along the Atlantic coast and in NE NC. Patchy drizzle from RIC and points NE is also causing localized MVFR VSBY. CIGs should drop to IFR for all terminals over the next few hrs, though there may be occasional clearing that turns skies BKN- SCT. CIGs could also drop to LIFR, but confidence in this is lower and guidance has generally backed off on this. Patchy fog (2-4 SM VSBY) could develop W of I-95 through 12z. Gradual improvement is expected later today with slowly lifting CIGs and a slow clearing trend. All terminals should be MVFR by 16z/12 PM and improvement to VFR is possible in the later aftn inland.
MVFR continues along the coast for most of the period. Light NE winds expected at RIC and SBY this morning with 5-10 kt winds at PHF, ORF, and ECG. NNE winds ~10 kt expected this aftn.
Outlook: CIGs likely degrade back to MVFR of IFR Sunday night, potentially lingering along the coast Monday. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
-Increasing NE wind and seas today. Small craft advisories are in effect for southern portions of the marine area.
1030mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends SW through New England and into the northern Mid- Atlantic. Meanwhile, weak low pressure is tracking E off the Carolina coast. The wind is NE 10-15kt north to 15-20kt S, with seas 3-4ft north to ~4ft south. The guidance has backed off some on the strength of the wind. Regardless, a persistent NE wind of 15-20kt should still allow seas to build to 4-6ft today through Monday. SCAs remain in effect for the ocean south of Chincoteague, the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Elsewhere, the wind should mainly be NE 10-15kt. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later Monday aftn into Monday night as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub- SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek. A cold front settles into the region later Thursday into Friday bringing a chc of tstms. Conditions will primarily be sub-SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast today through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves.
HYDROLOGY
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from yesterday will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday....
Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding during high tide later this evening into the early overnight hours, and this will likely continue into early this week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 38 mi | 98 min | N 1 | 60°F | 29.95 | 57°F | ||
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 40 mi | 44 min | NNW 3.9G | 58°F | 70°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRIC RICHMOND INTL,VA | 5 sm | 13 min | NNE 03 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.96 |
| KFCI RICHMOND EXECUTIVECHESTERFIELD COUNTY,VA | 10 sm | 11 min | N 03 | 9 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 29.96 | |||
| KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA | 12 sm | 13 min | calm | 6 sm | Overcast | Mist | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.97 |
Tide / Current for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:26 AM EDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT 3.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:28 PM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:26 AM EDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT 3.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:28 PM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 3.2 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 3.6 |
| 4 am |
| 3.2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:57 AM EDT 3.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:21 PM EDT 3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:57 AM EDT 3.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:47 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:21 PM EDT 3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3.7 |
| 3 am |
| 3.5 |
| 4 am |
| 3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Wakefield, VA,
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