Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Exmore, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:26 AM EDT (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1231 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Rest of tonight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1231 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slides off the coast overnight into Thursday. A weak cold front approaches from the northwest late Thursday, then drops across the area Thursday night into Friday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Exmore, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.55, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 230129
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
929 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure settles offshore into tonight. This area of high
pressure then shifts well off the southeast coast Thursday into
Thursday night as low pressure passes north of the region.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 910 pm edt Wednesday...

winds have become SE this evening... And will become more s
overnight as sfc hi pres near the coast (now) shifts farther
offshore (after midnight). An area of bkn-ovc sc (cigs roughly
3-5kft) moving only very slow progress nne through SW portions
of the fa (in va). Hi res guidance does suggest some of that
moisture continues to spread ene overnight resulting in partly
cloudy conditions... ESP inland. Not quite a cool overnight as
dew points have nudged up a bit as winds have shifted to se
(then eventually s). Lows in the m-u50s... Except around 60f
across parts of the piedmont SW of ric and the l50s inland on
the lower md ERN shore.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

the mid upper level ridge axis will push offshore Thursday
morning as a shortwave trough tracks through ERN great lakes.

Meanwhile, the low-level flow will become sw, which will allow
for slow moistening of the low-level airmass. Warmer high
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90f are expected across
our area, with low 80s for much of the ERN shore and coastal se
va NE nc, and upper 70s at the immediate atlantic coast of the
ern shore.

We are continuing to monitor the potential for some thunderstorms
thu aftn and evening. SPC has added a small area of slight risk
over the far northern quarter of the area (ric to sby and
north). Convective threat for Thursday remains conditional; and
is dependent upon the development of an MCS upstream from kstl
to ksdf late tonight early thu. Should this feature develop as
modeled by cams, the MCS would push across from WV pa into S pa
and nj Thursday aftn and evening. This is expected to trigger
convection N of the region in a zone of 40-50kt 500mb flow and
35-45kt 700mb flow. Must note that this shortwave will dampen
upper ridging to a degree... With resultant quasi-downslope flow
serving to lower areal coverage of tstms over the local area.

That said, there is the potential for isolated to widely sct
outflow- driven tstms from this feature, which could move off
the higher terrain into the NW piedmont after 20z 4pm later
Thursday aftn, and potentially pushing across the NRN neck and
md ERN shore by mid to late Thursday evening. Obviously, a lot
has to go "right" for this convection to develop as modeled, and
for that reason... We will continue to cap pops at 30%-40% for now,
highest in the slight risk area from the NW piedmont counties to
the md ERN shore, bordered by 20% for much of the area, and
less than 15% far SRN va NE nc. The potential for some stronger
storms does exist, given cooling drying aloft... With large hail
and damaging winds the primary threats in any convection that
can make its way toward the area tomorrow evening.

Heat then builds for Friday through the weekend. Good model
agreement continues with respect to building strong upper ridge
back to the north Fri sat, before the ridge flattens late in
the holiday weekend courtesy of northern stream shortwave
sliding across the upper great lakes and SE canada. Increasingly
hot, though remaining mainly dry. Some isolated (mainly
diurnally driven) convection possible along lee troughing to the
west Sun afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s to near 90 on sat, 80s
along the coast, l-m 90s inland on Sunday. Early morning lows
60s to near 70.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 250 pm edt Wednesday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the extended
forecast period. An upper level anticyclone remains centered along
the gulf coast early next week, putting our region in w-nw flow
aloft. Meanwhile, an anomalous deep trough aloft will continue
to largely remain out over the WRN conus. A weak frontal
boundary crosses the area Sun evening-sun night, but only
isolated tstms are expected (mainly N ne). Isolated-scattered
aftn evening tstms are possible on mon, but the chance of this
is only ~20%. Drying out from tue-wed as upper ridging amplifies
over the us east coast as the aforementioned deep trough aloft
ejects out into the NRN plains.

Lows Sun night in the u60s-around 70f. Highs Mon in the 80s over the
lower ERN shore to the low 90s inland. Highs Tue from the low 80s
over the ERN shore to near 90f inland. Forecast highs on Wed are in
the low 90s in most areas, but there is the potential for it to be
even warmer.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
As of 925 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure was centered just offshore of the region this evening,
leading to SE winds of 5-10 kt. Skc conditions prevail (except for
sct high clouds) at the terminals. Skies remain clear below 20k
ft through most of tonight at sby orf phf ecg before sct clouds
around 6-9k feet move in closer to sunrise. Sct-bkn clouds at
4-6k feet move in from 04-06z at ric and persist through
~12z. Winds shift to the ssw by sunrise but remain light
through the night. Ssw winds increase on Thu (gusts to 20 kt at
the coastal terminals). Expect sct CU (~5k ft) to develop across
the area by Thu aftn. There is a 20-30% chc of showers tstms
(primarily ric-sby and points n) after 20z 4 pm Thursday as a
trough slides across the region in NW flow aloft. The (slight)
chc of showers tstms lasts through 03-06z fri. For now, did not
include any mention of pcpn in the tafs.

Outlook: mainly dry conditions are expected Friday through the
weekend as weak high pressure prevails over the region.

Marine
As of 345 pm edt Wednesday...

high pressure will move off shore tonight. Winds overnight will
be 5-10 kt and seas will come down to around 1 ft in the bay
and 2-3 ft in the atlantic. As a cold front approaches from the
north, southwesterly winds will increase tomorrow afternoon. Not
going with any SCA for tomorrow afternoon because conditions
will be marginal. Gust may exceed 25 kt for a short period of
time and waves will touch 5 ft off the eastern shore's atlantic
coast(mostly far offshore edge of our zones). Farther south in
the atlantic, winds will between 15-20 kt with waves 3-4 ft. In
the chesepeake bay and rivers, winds Thursday afternoon will be
10-15 kt and waves will be around 1-2 ft.

Behind the cold front on Friday, high pressure will build back
into the area for the holiday weekend. Looks like winds and seas
will stay below SCA criteria through Monday.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
As of 330 pm edt Wednesday...

kakq 88d radar out of service until further notice. Techs are awaiting
parts to make needed repair. Return to service possible late thu
or fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz mam
near term... Alb
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri mam
marine... Cp
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 5 mi39 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 1025.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 13 mi39 min S 7 G 8.9 64°F 70°F1025 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 18 mi63 min S 12 G 14 66°F 70°F1022.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi45 min SE 7 G 8.9 70°F
44072 30 mi57 min 67°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 30 mi39 min SSE 12 G 13 67°F 1025.3 hPa
44089 34 mi57 min 64°F2 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi39 min SSE 5.1 G 7 64°F 73°F1024.5 hPa
CHBV2 37 mi45 min SSE 12 G 13 66°F 1024 hPa
44087 38 mi57 min 70°F1 ft
44064 39 mi67 min SSE 12 G 12 66°F 1025 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 40 mi45 min SSW 14 G 16 67°F 69°F1023.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi45 min S 8 G 9.9 63°F 69°F1024.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi39 min SE 9.9 G 13 65°F 1024.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 45 mi45 min SSE 7 G 8.9 65°F 1024.2 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 45 mi57 min 66°F3 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 47 mi45 min 73°F1024.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi45 min S 12 G 15 66°F 70°F1024.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi39 min SE 8.9 G 11 66°F 1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
N11
N11
N14
NE22
NE16
NE12
NE10
G13
NE11
NE10
E7
G11
E7
G11
E7
G10
E5
E9
E8
SE6
SE6
SE6
SE9
SE9
SE10
SE9
SE9
SE12
1 day
ago
W5
W5
W5
W7
N19
N19
G24
N23
N23
NW21
N22
N19
G23
N20
N19
N18
N16
N17
G21
N20
N18
N18
N17
N16
N15
N16
N14
G17
2 days
ago
S14
S14
SW13
SW13
S12
S7
S13
S14
S17
S15
S15
S14
S13
S13
S12
W19
G24
SW8
G15
SW12
G15
SW11
S13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi97 minSE 710.00 miFair59°F52°F79%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN5NE5NE4CalmCalmNE6E8E10
G16
E10E4E5SE6SE6E3SE4SE4SE4SE5SE3S4SE6
1 day agoSW4W6W5W5NW3N6N8
G14
N8
G16
N9
G16
N10
G17
NW15
G19
N13
G20
N9
G17
NW9
G23
NW13
G19
NW8
G19
NW14NW8
G19
N10
G15
N9N5N3N5Calm
2 days agoS7S8SW8SW6
G17
SW9SW8
G15
SW10
G16
SW10
G16
SW8
G14
W8
G18
SW8
G16
SW13
G18
SW10
G19
SW12
G18
SW16
G20
SW9
G16
SW13
G20
S10
G19
S6S5W10
G20
S9CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:55 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.21.61.81.81.71.410.60.30.20.20.40.81.21.51.61.51.30.90.60.40.20.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Nassawadox Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.61.921.81.51.10.70.30.20.20.40.81.21.51.61.61.410.70.40.20.30.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.