Exmore, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Exmore, VA

May 3, 2024 6:57 PM EDT (22:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM
Moonrise 2:36 AM   Moonset 1:54 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 254 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Saturday - .

Through 7 pm - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.

Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers late.

Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat night - SE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.

Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 254 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a backdoor cold front drops through the local waters today, and stalls over the carolinas tonight and Saturday. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Exmore, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 031939 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight.
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dropping temperatures expected this afternoon behind a backdoor cold front.

- On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland.

- Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover.

Sfc obs, satellite, and radar data show the backdoor cold front quickly marching W/SW across the area. Behind the front, temps are falling quickly. It's in the 50s on the VA/MD Eastern Shore and in the 60s across Hampton Roads northwards to the Northern Neck. Ahead of the front (over the Piedmont), temps have risen into the mid and upper 80s. Thus, we are currently seeing a very impressive temperature gradient over the area (55 at Ocean City/OXB vs 87 at South Hill/AVC). Extensive low-level clouds are also slowly pushing inland from the ocean and Chesapeake Bay. Expect the front to continue advancing westward for the remainder of this afternoon. A few CAMs show a few pop-up showers or storms developing along the front given building instability (SPC mesoanalysis showing ~500-1000 J/kg across the Piedmont). Will continue a 20% PoP for these areas through the afternoon. Additional shower chances are expected overnight, with the highest coverage expected over the nrn half of the area. Not expecting any thunder tonight. Some patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds. Lows tonight will be chillier than the previous few nights and around 50 on the MD Eastern Shore to the mid-upper 50s for the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound).

The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday.
Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place.
The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S).
On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear.
Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 215 PM Friday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected through most of the 03/18z TAF period as a backdoor cold front pushes further inland.
As of 18z, IFR CIGs (bases ~800 ft) have moved into ORF and PHF. MVFR CIGs are noted at SBY, with VFR at RIC. Expect these IFR CIGs to persist along the coast through the period.
Elsewhere, expect SBY and ECG to drop to IFR CIGs over the next few hrs, with RIC holding off until this evening. CIGs may then drop further to LIFR for a time tonight (best chances at ORF and ECG). Additionally, there may be VSBY reductions below 3 SM due to BR or FG. This part of the forecast is more uncertain so have not gone lower than 3 SM in the TAFs at this time. In terms of precipitation, most stay dry this aftn (a very brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out at RIC), before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday.
Areas of drizzle are also possible. Winds have turned to the E behind the front at all TAF sites and E winds 10 should avg ~10 kt overnight into Saturday.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Advisories were expanded south to the NC/VA border and extended through this evening.

- Winds of 15 to 25 kt will persist this evening then diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but winds may increase some Saturday and additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by Saturday/Saturday night.

Winds increased abruptly as expected earlier today behind the backdoor cold front. Overall the NE winds have over-performed with some gusts of 25 to 30 kt at times over the ocean and lower Bay. SCA advisories are in effect for the Bay, lower James River and coastal waters from the NC/VA border north. Winds will persist into this evening, but should slowly decrease some by midnight. That said given the pattern and gradient winds will remain E-ENE at 15 kt gusts to 20 kt through the overnight.
Seas have increased to 4 to 6 ft from Cape Charles north and 3 to 4 near the NC/VA border. Given the easterly flow seas over the ocean and waves at the mouth of the Bay may be slow to decrease overnight.

Wind speeds increase again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE and this reflected by nearly all of the guidance. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Have issues a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and approach minor flood levels later on Saturday. Tidal departures will increase overnight due to winds persisting onshore from the E or ENE. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 5 mi58 min ENE 19G21 30.14
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 13 mi58 min ENE 19G22 54°F 68°F30.11
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 18 mi52 min E 14G19 55°F 65°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi58 min E 14G19 55°F 63°F30.12
44072 30 mi46 min ENE 14G18 56°F 2 ft
44089 35 mi62 min 55°F5 ft
CHBV2 37 mi58 min E 15G19 56°F 30.07
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi58 min E 17G19 58°F 66°F30.10
44087 38 mi62 min 63°F3 ft
44064 39 mi52 min ENE 21G23 53°F 61°F2 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 40 mi52 min E 16G19 58°F 64°F3 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi58 min ESE 19G21 60°F 69°F30.11
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi58 min ENE 18G19 55°F 30.11
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 43 mi88 min ENE 1.9 61°F 30.0956°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 45 mi62 min 60°F5 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 45 mi58 min E 18G21 56°F 30.08
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi58 min E 14G18 59°F 73°F30.12
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 47 mi58 min 62°F30.11
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi58 min NE 2.9G9.9 58°F 30.09


Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 11 sm22 minE 10G1810 smOvercast30.11
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 20 sm22 minE 15G2010 smOvercast57°F52°F82%30.12
Link to 5 minute data for KMFV


Wind History from MFV
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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Gaskins Point
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Fri -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:57 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.3
1
am
0.2
2
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0.2
3
am
0.5
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.3
6
am
1.7
7
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1.8
8
am
1.7
9
am
1.5
10
am
1.2
11
am
0.8
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.2
2
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0.1
3
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0.2
4
pm
0.6
5
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1.1
6
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1.5
7
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1.8
8
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1.8
9
pm
1.7
10
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1.4
11
pm
1



Tide / Current for Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Nassawadox Creek
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Fri -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:02 PM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.2
1
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0.3
2
am
0.5
3
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0.9
4
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1.3
5
am
1.7
6
am
1.9
7
am
1.9
8
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1.6
9
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1.3
10
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0.8
11
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0.4
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0.1
2
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0.3
3
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0.7
4
pm
1.1
5
pm
1.5
6
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1.8
7
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2
8
pm
1.8
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
0.6




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Wakefield, VA,



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