Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:35 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM

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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 645 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 645 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure over the region prevails through midweek, bringing dry weather and benign marine conditions to the local waters. Rain chances look to return for the latter half of the week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 201941 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 341 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear out through the evening

- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible across the entire forecast area

High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to severe.

High pressure remains in place over the area through mid-week and gradually shifts to the south. The ridge aloft will continue to build through early Wed, then gets suppressed Wed into Thurs. Skies will be mostly clear Tue and Wed. A cold front approaches from the NW on Thurs. Based on 12z global guidance, the front looks to enter the local area late evening Thurs. Northwestern portions of the area should see precip in the late afternoon, then showers/storms move into the remainder of the area later that evening. Thunder seems likely (especially in the afternoon/evening) given sufficient instability from day-time heating. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N.

Temperatures follow a warming trend through the week. Highs on Tues will be in the low 80s in the piedmont, upper 70s in the E, and upper 60s-low 70s immediately at the coast courtesy of onshore flow.
Highs on Wed warm into the upper 80s inland and low-mid 80s immediately along the coast. Cannot rule out a few places touching 90. Hot again on Thurs with highs in the mid-80s to around 90. Lows Tues night in the upper 50s, mid-60s Wed and Thurs night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

A lot of uncertainty in the long term, but the pattern looks to be generally unsettled. Thursday night's cold front will likely stall out over or near the local area due to a weak flow aloft. This will create daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week, mostly in the afternoon and evenings. Due to the uncertainty, stuck close to the PoPs from the blended guidance. However, capped PoPs at Chnc and did some light editing to reflect the diurnal nature. Regarding temps, Friday has trended warmer with highs now getting into the mid-80s most places and low 80s on the Eastern Shore. Likely a bit cooler on Sat and Sun with temps in the upper 70s-around 80 across the N and up to the mid- 80s in the far south. Back to the low-mid 80s everywhere W of the bay on Mon (upper 70s on Eastern Shore). Lows will be in the low-mid 60s through this period.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow.

Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday.

- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.

High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon, which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to 15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to 3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance of scattered showers and storms each day.

A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down" to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.

HYDROLOGY
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday morning before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from the weekend may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper James area, for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Nassawadox Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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