Boston, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boston, VA

May 18, 2024 4:17 AM EDT (08:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM
Moonrise 2:38 PM   Moonset 2:20 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 400 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024

Through 7 am - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Today - E winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.

Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.

Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tue - E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

ANZ600 400 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas today and then moves off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boston, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 180739 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Widespread showers continue through early this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms also possible across the south. The widespread rain will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain showers expected through this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is possible and a flood watch remains in place over portions of the Piedmont.

- Showers continue into this afternoon, with a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of the NC/VA border.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure (centered over Atlantic Canada) ridging S into the coastal Mid-Atlantic. Just to the E (offshore), expansive, but weak, low pressure continues to harmlessly spiral. In the upper levels, WSW flow continues ahead of a srn stream shortwave currently located over the mid-South. Water vapor imagery also shows a secondary impulse in the WV/srn PA vicinity. Along with a sfc boundary/weak sfc low, this upper disturbance is serving to focus moderate-heavy showers over most of the Piedmont. Radar shows the heavier echoes gradually moving E, though weak low and mid-level wind fields are favoring rather slow movement of these showers. With 6z mesoanalysis showing 1.5-1.7" PWATs (highest W/SW) and model-derived soundings showing a deeply saturated moisture profile, heavy rainfall is possible in any showers. Analyzed instability is very weak but any deeper shower could produce a rumble of thunder. There is decent agreement among the CAMs that the heavier rain gradually pushes E toward sunrise.
This lines up well with current trends seen on radar. Further S in NC, additional (more scattered in nature) showers will also push E/NE into NE NC and SE VA into the mid-morning. Highest QPF continues to focus across W of I-95 and especially in our far wrn tier of counties. This is where the flood watch continues through 10 AM. While aerial QPF is marginal for widespread flooding issues, any slow-moving or stationary shower could quickly put down 1-2" in a couple hours. This could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially for areas that received significant rainfall earlier this week.

Rain transitions closer to the coast in the late morning and early afternoon. Thinking is the intensity trends down a bit (especially from the Northern Neck into the eastern shore), while becoming more "showery" in nature, as the higher PWATs become increasingly focused S of the area. There remains some uncertainty heading into the mid/late afternoon regarding coverage of showers and possible storms. For the nrn half of the area, not expecting much redevelopment due to lingering impacts from the morning rain/convection and cool low-levels from the NE flow. Some sfc-based instability may creep into far srn VA and NE NC which could favor storms. CAMs generally focus most of the heavier activity just S of our CWA and along a remnant Midwestern MCS boundary. The best chance for storms in our CWA would be just S of the NC/VA border and especially along the Albemarle Sound. SPC has a marginal risk for severe for these areas, but thinking is best chance for svr is well to our S given the meager instability (and decreasing) instability.
Elsewhere, just expecting scattered light rain or showers and perhaps some drizzle. It certainly won't feel like late spring with cloudy skies and highs struggling to get out of the low-mid 60s for most of the FA. Upper 60s or lower 70s are possible in interior NE NC and S and W of US-460. Scattered showers continue into tonight with the highest coverage over SE VA and NE NC. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 50s under continuing overcast skies. Becoming breezy along the immediate coast with a tightening pressure gradient.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Low chance for showers across SE VA and NE NC Sunday, with dry weather elsewhere. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northern portions of the area.

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.

Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for northern portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). In response to this potential, the guidance is trending up with temps across this area. Given looming uncertainty and the fact that these airmasses are sometimes hard to scour out, will blend the previous forecast's highs w/ the NBM, which yields temps in the low 70s across the N (a couple degrees below NBM). However, temps could certainly be warmer w/ 75th percentile highs approaching the mid 70s. Highs likely to stay in the 60s in SE VA/NE NC and along the Atlantic coast (where it also remains breezy). PoPs also continue to trend down, with just slight chc for the srn half of the area (30% along the Albemarle Sound). Lows Sun night in the mid 50s.

Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere. The low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with PoPs below 20% areawide. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A substantial warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday with mainly dry weather.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon, with some stronger storms possible.

Low pressure gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night, with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, much warmer temps are expected midweek, with highs Tue in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a comeback. An isolated shower is possible across the NW Wed night w/ a shortwave sliding through the ern Great Lakes.
However, vast majority of the moisture stays well to our NW.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area in the later Thursday/early Friday timeframe. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. CAPE fields from the GFS/ECMWF show impressive instability so could see some stronger storms. A little cooler behind the front to end the week, though will need to watch another disturbance ejecting out of the Plains Friday into Saturday. Depending on the track of the sfc feature, will again need to monitor for some stronger storms. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

There are two areas of low clouds this morning. The first is a widespread area of 600-1000 ft CIGS, mainly W of I-95 and RIC (associated w/ a large shield of rain). There are also patchy MVFR CIGs closer the coast associated w/ a maritime airmass and NE onshore flow. For ORF, PHF, SBY, and ECG, cannot rule out SCT- BKN MVFR CIGs , but prevailing VFR is forecast for at least next few hrs. RIC will drop to IFR first this morning, around 10z (cannot rule out a hr or so earlier). Degraded flight conditions and rain showers then push E to the remainder of the terminals by mid-late morning w/ initially MVFR CIGs and then IFR by the aftn today (SBY may stay MVFR for most of today).
Coverage of showers may lower some later in the aftn, but IFR CIGs and potentially some drizzle will keep flying conditions less than ideal. There is also a chc of LIFR CIGs , but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this point. Degraded VSBY in rain/drizzle also likely. E-NE winds are light this morning, with 5-10 kt winds prevailing for the remainder of the period.

Outlook: At least some chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) into Sunday morning, with the best chance at srn terminals. Mainly dry by Sun afternoon and night with a few lingering showers in the SE. Dry Mon-Tue.

MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.

Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with weak low pressure centered well inland and slowly approaching from the W. The wind in mainly E to NE at 5-10kt with seas 3-4ft. Low pressure will track ESE across NC today and become more organized off the Carolina coast tonight into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday.
Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. The wind is expected to become E 10-15kt today, and then become NE by tonight into Sunday ranging from 10-15kt N to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt S.
Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.
High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues for today, with moderate for the northern beaches Sunday, and high for the southern beaches due to increasing NE flow and building seas.

HYDROLOGY
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.

Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Tidal anomalies have dropped a few tenths of a foot across the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers in the wake of a modest ebb tide. Therefore, nuisance to minor tidal flooding is largely not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning to mid-afternoon. However, astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060-061- 065>068-509.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 12 sm2 minSE 0310 smPartly Cloudy Lt Drizzle 29.95
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 19 sm2 minSE 0610 smPartly Cloudy61°F57°F88%29.95
Link to 5 minute data for KBGM


Wind History from BGM
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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Gaskins Point
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Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.4
3
am
0.4
4
am
0.6
5
am
0.9
6
am
1.2
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.5
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.2
11
am
1
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.3
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.9
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
1.6
8
pm
1.7
9
pm
1.7
10
pm
1.5
11
pm
1.3


Tide / Current for Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Nassawadox Creek
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Sat -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.4
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.7
4
am
1
5
am
1.3
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.5
9
am
1.3
10
am
1.1
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
1.3
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
1.8
9
pm
1.7
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1


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Wakefield, VA,




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