Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 11:03 PM   Moonset 7:13 AM

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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 303 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Through 7 pm - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wed - NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 303 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast tonight, resulting in southeast then south winds across the area. The high then becomes anchored off the southeast coast from Sunday through the middle of next week, with winds generally south to southwest across the local waters.

FXUS61 KAKQ 271917 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore moves south early next week with a ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected next week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. High pressure returns by Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase late next week into next weekend as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

~1035mb high pressure is now centered SE of Long Island/Cape Cod this afternoon, with ridging extending SW into VA and the Carolinas.
A warm front is approaching from the SW (but is still over western VA/NC). Skies are still mostly cloudy to overcast across the eastern 2/3 of the area, with scattered showers from the RIC Metro NE to the VA Northern Neck/Eastern Shore. Temps have struggled to get out of the 50s across northern portions of the area, with mainly 60s elsewhere (and near 70F SW where skies have started to clear).
Showers will continue to be possible today across N and NE portions of the FA through the evening (before ending by ~8 PM), with clearing expected across W/SW portions of the area in the next few hours. Not expecting more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain.
Lows tonight in the upper 40s NE with low-mid 50s elsewhere as winds become S-SSW as the warm front crosses the area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

A ridge builds over the area early next week with a significant warmup expected as winds become SW. Dry with (slowly) increasing humidity. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sun with upper 80s in most areas on Mon/Tue. Guidance has come up a couple of degrees with respect to high temperatures early next week, and a few 90F readings are likely on both Mon and Tue (now the NBM 50th percentile shows 90F at RIC on Mon). Lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sun and Mon night. A weak cold front slowly approaches from the west on Tue, with isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms initially developing to our west during the aftn. Isolated convection potentially moves across the area during the evening through the first part of Tue night before weakening. Will hold PoPs no higher than 30% given the lack of coverage and the fact that some of the models don't have any QPF in the FA from Tue-Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The ridge lingers over the E CONUS through much of the rest of next week. At the surface, weak high pressure settles to our NE on Wed/Thu in the wake of the weak front, with mainly warm/dry wx expected (although it will be a bit cooler near the coast on both days with the flow becoming onshore). Forecast highs are in the low- mid 80s inland with 70s closer to the coast. Precipitation chances increase late next week through at least Sat as the upper ridge breaks down and a shortwave tracks from the upper Midwest to srn Ontario/Quebec. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time, which will result in multiple chances for showers/storms.
However, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. Also, another cold front may cross the area next weekend, and there's quite a bit of uncertainty regarding if/when it does so.
As such, have maintained NBM PoPs (which gives 30-40% PoPs on both Fri/Sat...highest during the aftn/evening). Highs mainly in the 80s on Fri with a slight cool down possible by next weekend.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/27 TAF period. BKN-OVC CIGs around 5000ft AGL will exit the area this evening-tonight, with clear skies outside of SCT mid/high clouds expected during the remainder of the period. Cannot completely rule out a few light showers making it to RIC or SBY during the remainder this afternoon but confidence is too low to reflect in TAFs (and even if RIC/SBY see showers...no flight restrictions are expected).
ESE/SE winds of ~10 kt become S then SSW tonight-Sun AM as a warm front crosses the area.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Sun through at least Tue AM.

MARINE
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, strong high pressure was centered just off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Winds were SE 5-15 kt over the waters, with a few gusts up to 20 kt. Seas were 3-4 ft and waves were 1-3 ft.

SE winds 5-15 kt will become S tonight, as high pressure shifts farther S to off the Mid Atlc coast. The high will then drift to off the SE coast for Sun through Tue. With this movement, winds become S or SW (still at 5-15 kt) through the period. During this period, seas will be 2-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft. A front will drop across the waters late Tue night into Wed, with winds turning to the W then NNW. Winds will then turn back to the E or SE for Wed evening into Thu.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Windmill Point Light
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Sat -- 01:31 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:24 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:58 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Windmill Point
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Sat -- 01:30 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:24 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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