Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gwynn, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 3:32 PM EDT (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 107 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 107 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure returns for today and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gwynn, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211854
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
254 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the northwest today and tonight,
and settles immediately off the coast Wednesday. This area of
high pressure then shifts off the coast later in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am edt Tuesday...

latest analysis indicates that the sfc cold front has pushed
well S of the local area, now located over southeast nc. Sfc
high pressure is centered over the great lakes and is building
se into the mid-atlantic states, with area obs showing about a 3
to 5 mb rise in pressure over the past 6 hrs. Nnw winds, gusty
to 25 mph prevail on the eastern shore, with N to NE winds in
place elsewhere (also somewhat gusty to around 25 mph along the
coast). Temperatures as of 15z 11am range from around 70 f
across the N to the mid upper 70s over the s. Dew pts have
dropped into the lower 50s N but remain in the lower 60s in ne
nc. Mostly sunny and pleasant this aftn with just some scattered
cu developing. Highs will range from the lower 80s in interior
ne nc and south central va to the lower-mid 70s along the coast
and over the n.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

dry and seasonal conditions will continue tonight into
Wednesday as high pressure shifts from the NRN mid-atlantic
tonight, to off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday. Clear tonight
with low temperatures ranging from around 50f n, to the
mid upper 50s near and along the coasts of SE va NE nc. Favored
cold spots potentially drop into the upper 40s. Mostly sunny
Wednesday with high temperatures ranging from the low mid 70s
along the coast (around 70f md atlantic coast), to around 80f
well inland.

High pressure shifts east Wednesday night and Thursday allowing
the start of the next warmup. Models continue to show a NW flow
upper level flow pattern setting up that could allow for
another round of upstream convection to dive sewd. The 21 00z
gfs remains most aggressive with this, while the nam ECMWF are
generally drier and more capped. Timing can be a problem this
far out so pops are mainly ~20%. Low temperatures Wednesday
night are in the upper 50s to low 60s, followed by highs
Thursday in the mid upper 80s inland, to the upper 70s low 80s
closer to and along the coastlines.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 250 pm edt Tuesday...

summerlike temperatures remaining above normal through the
extended forecast period as hi pres aloft remains centered ssw
of the fa INVOF central gulf states. Meanwhile... An anomalous
deep trough aloft will continue to largely remain out over the
wrn conus. Sfc warm front lifts N through the fa Fri night into
sat then W W flow aloft through the mid-atlantic ne
conus... That front will become hung up just N of the fa into
early next week. While isold convection possible both sat-sun
afternoons... Higher pops will be Mon afternoon as the trough
aloft sharpens through new england and a sfc cold front pushes
across the local area. Drying out cooling off tue.

Lows Fri night in the l-m60s N to the m-u60s se. Highs Sat in
the l-m80s E to the l90s w. Lows Sat night in the u60s-around
70f. Highs Sun in the 80s at the coast... L-m90s elsewhere. Lows
sun night in the u60s-around 70f. Highs Mon in the 80s E to the
l90s inland. Highs Tue from the u70s-l80s E to the m80s inland.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 700 am edt Tuesday...

a cold front is slowly pushing through NE nc as of 11z. The
wind will initially shift to NW behind the front, and then turn
nne 8-12kt primarily after 12z, and continuing through the day
with occasional gusts to 15-20kt. Mostly clear sunny conditions
are expected as high pressure builds in from the nw. High
pressure becomes centered N of the area tonight, with a light ne
wind under a clear sky.

High pressure remains over the region Wednesday, before sliding
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a 20-30% chc of
showers tstms Thursday aftn evening as a trough slides across
the area in NW flow aloft. Dry conditions are expected Friday
into Saturday as weak high pressure returns.

Marine
As of 410 am edt Tuesday...

a cold front will drop acrs the waters and push into the atlc
during this morning. Fairly modest pressure rises occur behind
the frontal passage, with high res guidance still showing a
surge of nnw winds in the wake of the front this morning. Winds
in the ches bay and the lower james river will generally run
15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Accordingly, scas remains in
effect for these areas through 10 am this morning. Waves will
briefly build to 3 ft this morning, then subside to 1-2 ft by
this aftn. Winds offshore will also run 15-20 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots and seas 3-4 ft in offshore flow. Winds decrease
to 5-15 knots later today into Wed before swinging around to
the ese and then S by thu, as high pressure moves offshore and
ridging aloft builds over the southeast. There is the potential
for another cold frontal passage on fri.

Climate
* avg date of 1st 90f (1981-2010 climatology):
* site avg 2019 value
* richmond: may 13th (sun 5 19)
* norfolk: may 16th (sun 5 19)
* salisbury: may 27th (none so far)
* eliz city: may 18th (sat 5 18)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg most
* richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941)

Equipment
Kakq 88d down ufn. Apparent comms rda modem problem. Techs are
working on the issue.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Jdm tmg
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 6 mi38 min N 17 G 19 1016.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 7 mi38 min NE 16 G 18 66°F 71°F1013.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi38 min E 16 G 18 68°F 1016 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 24 mi38 min N 7 G 14 71°F 78°F1015.2 hPa
44072 26 mi32 min 67°F 70°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi38 min N 9.9 G 13 72°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi38 min NW 12 G 14 73°F 74°F1015.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 34 mi32 min NE 12 G 14 67°F 69°F1015.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi38 min N 8.9 G 12 69°F 72°F1015.9 hPa
44087 37 mi32 min 70°F2 ft
CHBV2 37 mi38 min NNE 16 G 18 68°F 1014.3 hPa
44064 39 mi32 min NNE 14 G 16 68°F 70°F2 ft1015.4 hPa (-0.4)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 41 mi38 min NE 8.9 G 11 68°F 1014.9 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi38 min 71°F 85°F1013.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 44 mi38 min E 8.9 G 12 71°F 1015.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi38 min 72°F1015.6 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi38 min N 9.9 G 11 69°F 1015.3 hPa
44089 44 mi32 min 66°F2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi38 min NNW 11 G 13
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi38 min NNW 13 G 18 69°F 77°F1015.9 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi38 min ENE 8 G 11 71°F 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA20 mi37 minNW 8 G 1610.00 miFair70°F50°F50%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE5E4SE7SE5E4SE7SE8SE8SE7SE7S5SE5SE3SE7SE7SE4S4S8S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:38 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.31.21.10.80.50.20-000.30.60.8110.90.70.50.20.100.10.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia (3)
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Windmill Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:46 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.51.310.60.30.1-000.30.60.91.21.21.10.90.60.30.100.10.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.