Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:00PM Saturday September 23, 2017 2:13 PM EDT (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 8:17PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 133 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot...building to 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot... Building to 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft... Building to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft...building to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 133 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the weekend, while the remnants of jose lift northeastward away from the area. Hurricane maria will move slowly northward or north- northwestward off the southeast coast through early next week. SEe national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells from hurricane maria will begin to impact coastal area by late this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231734
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
134 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
Post-tropical storm jose will continue lingers off the new england
coast before dissipating later this weekend. Meanwhile, high
pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern through
early next week. Hurricane maria is forecast to move northward
between the offshore atlantic waters and bermuda through the early
part of next week. A cold front is expected to cross the area by mid-
week pushing maria east of the region.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Post-tropical cyclone jose continues to linger just of the coast of
southeast new england. High pressure has centered over the
northeast. Patchy fog, some areas locally dense, has once again
developed this morning over portions of the piedmont and interior
northeast north carolina. Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. High pressure will allow for continued dry weather
and above normal temperatures today. Highs will range from the lower
80s near the coast to the mid upper 80s inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our
weather pattern over the weekend, as ptc jose weakens and shifts a
bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with nne flow
will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.

Will have to keep and eye on hurricane maria which will be moving
north off the SE coast by Sunday and Monday. Right now maria is
expected to take a course similar to jose, keeping it well offshore.

Highs sun-mon will generally be in the mid 80s, except upper 70s at
the beaches. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to upper 60s
near the coast.

Long term Monday night through Friday
A broad upper ridge is expected to prevail Monday night
through Wednesday from the great lakes across the northeast CONUS co-
located with surface high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper low
(400-200mb) is progged to drop SE from the NRN gulf coast to the fl
peninsula. The strength of the ridge and the presence of the upper
low is potentially complicating the situation with hurricane maria.

This is resulting in a westward shift in the track with the 23 00z
global models, with the tropical cyclone taking a turn toward the nw
and heading toward and approaching the outer banks during the
Wednesday Wednesday night time-frame per 23 00z ECMWF gfs. Note the
23 00z cmc appears too fast. Monitor the latest official forecast
tracks from the national hurricane center. This more westward track
would bring an increasing threat of more wind higher pops along the
coast by midweek. For now, pops and sky cover have been nudged up. A
vigorous trough eventually pushes through the great lakes
Thursday Thursday night, breaking down the ridge and pushing maria
well offshore. The associated cold front crosses the area late
Thursday Thursday night, resulting in cooler conditions late in the
forecast period.

Highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s to low 80s, Wednesday in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, low mid 80s Thursday, and the 70s Friday. Lows
Monday night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to
around 70f, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Vfr conditions prevail for the most part through the 18z taf
period, as high pressure remains in control over the area. Have
maintained some MVFR overnight at kric ksby per 12z taf
issuance. This seems reasonable given little overall pattern
change, and dew points are about the same as Friday. Have kept
korfVFR through the period, as that terminal is generally not
prone to nocturnal fog development.

However, have opted to forecast similar consditions to Friday
night at kphf kecg. Both these locations had at least
intermittent ifr lifr Friday night. Since the overall pattern
is unchanged from the last 24 hours, both of these sites should
again see intermittent ifr lifr conditions after 02z.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through the Monday due to
the influence of high pressure over the region. Sub-vfr
conditions will be possible Tuesday through mid next week,
primarily at eastern TAF sites, as moist northerly flow from
tropical cyclone maria overspreads the region.

Marine
Early this morning, post-tropical cyclone jose remains centered
se of CAPE cod, and is forecast to gradually pushing ewd thru
sun while weakening. Meanwhile, hurricane maria was located
about 350 miles east of nassau, and is forecast to track to the
nnw thru today, then track nwrd thru Wed to well off the outer
banks of nc.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6 ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
at times below 5 ft over the next few days. However, the sca
for hazardous seas will continue, and will be extended thru sun
night, as energetic ese swell will continue. Swell arrives from
maria most likely beginning Sun night, and continuing into next
week. The bulk of the forecast guidance still keeps maria just
offshore Tue into thu, before it gets kicked quickly ene out to
sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have
increased winds and seas fcst for Mon thru wed. Monitor the nhc
forecast for the official forecast track of maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels expected to remain elevated at all sites through
the weekend, but given that the swell is not as large as what
it has been, they should stay just below flood. Will need to
watch for additional flooding next week, especially in the
bay as the swell from maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues thru today, as swell nearshore waves will be
slow to subside.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz078-084>086-099-100-523.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz095>097-524-525.

Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz075-
077.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Monday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajb
near term... Ajb
short term... Ajb jdm
long term... Ajz alb
aviation... Ajz wrs
marine... Tmg
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 1 mi34 min E 9.7 G 9.7 75°F 1018.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi44 min NNW 7 G 8.9 1018.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi44 min E 7 G 7 76°F 1018.5 hPa
44072 25 mi34 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 75°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi44 min N 1.9 82°F 1019 hPa68°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi44 min E 7 G 8 77°F 77°F1017.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi44 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 76°F1017.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi44 min NNW 9.9 G 13 76°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi44 min NNW 6 G 7 78°F 77°F1017.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi34 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 1017.3 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 37 mi34 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi44 min NE 9.9 G 11 75°F 1017.9 hPa
44064 40 mi34 min 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 1017.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi44 min W 1.9 G 4.1 78°F 1017.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi44 min NNW 8.9 G 11
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 42 mi44 min N 8 G 11 75°F 76°F1017.7 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi44 min 76°F1017.8 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi44 min NNE 5.1 G 7 75°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi44 min WNW 11 G 13 76°F 77°F1018 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi44 min NNE 8 G 12 77°F 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi79 minNNE 410.00 miFair84°F64°F51%1018.6 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmW4W3CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW3N5
1 day agoN7CalmN6N3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3CalmW3W4CalmNW5NW3N5CalmW6
2 days agoW5NW4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N6N3

Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:43 AM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:06 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.41.31.10.80.50.20.10.20.40.81.21.41.61.51.310.70.40.20.20.30.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:18 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:20 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.41.51.41.20.90.50.30.10.20.40.81.21.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.20.20.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.