Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 4:21 AM EST (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:51AMMoonset 5:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 334 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Through 7 am..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog early in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft... Building to 3 to 4 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of snow early in the morning, then snow likely in the late morning and afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft late. A chance of snow showers early in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft...subsiding to 1 foot after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 334 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Arctic high pressure becomes centered over eastern canada and ridges southwest into the local area through today. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low pressure strengthening off the coast. Cold high pressure returns by Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 160624
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
124 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will extend south into the region tonight.

A cold front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low
pressure moving northeast along the coast Wednesday afternoon
and night. A second surge of arctic air pushes across the area
Wednesday night and Thursday before temperatures moderate into
next weekend.

Near term through today
Latest wx analysis features strong sfc high pressure lifting ne
across atlantic canada, with the surface ridge still down into
interior portions of va nc. A sfc trough is still situated just
off the nc va coast and continues to keep low clouds in place
over eastern sections of the CWA this evening. Earlier snow
showers across the eastern shore have ended, with the main
challenge for the overnight forecast being with clouds and
potential for fog. In general, the model output showing
widespread vsbys less than 1sm over eastern and SE va appears
way overdone given all of the cloud cover that will be slow to
diminish (if at all). Have added some 3 to 5 sm vsbys E of i-95
later tonight but unless all of the low clouds scatter out,
dense fog looks unlikely even though winds will be rather light.

As for overnight lows, it will be much colder west of i-95 where
dew pts are significantly lower and skies stay mostly clear for
much of the night, expect lows 15-20 f over much of the
piedmont. Lows will avg 20-25 f across the i-95 corridor and a
few counties on east, with 25-30 f more likely near the coast
in clouds and a light NE flow.

Another weak low progged to lift north just off the coast tue
with a cold front approaching from the west. The local area
will be in btwn these features as weak high drifts toward the
carolina coast. Although weak, the return flow results in a
short lived warm-up across the region as temps rise into the
low- mid 40s.

Short term tonight through Thursday
Closed upper low over western great lakes will be the main
weather maker in the short term period. Emerging model agreement
with the 12z suite of models that the system will slide east, as
a progressive, positively tilted trough by Wednesday. This
system will eventually shunt a stalled frontal boundary east,
ramping up snow chances late Tue night and Wed as better
lift dynamics arrive into later Tue night.

Have trended toward blended 12z ECMWF nam solution with the fcst
package. This is a slightly slower solution, but maintains the
open wave aloft. In turn, this allows the development of the
sfc low slightly closer to the coast, albeit still offshore. It
also allows a stronger piece of the shortwave to push across
the local area into Wednesday aftn. Forecast confidence has
improved enough to nudge much of the CWA up into likely pop,
with the exception for the far NE zones. Overall, timing has
slowed slightly, but still on track for late Tue night across
the piedmont, towards sunrise Wed metro ric, and Wed morning
tidewater. Likely pops then continue Wed across the piedmont as
the upr lvl moisture tracks se. Will need to watch for
sharpening axis of f-gen oprh depicted by the high-res nam... As
it may portend to a period of moderate snow even into hampton
roads Wed aftn. Have accordingly bumped snow accums up there
slightly. Highs 30-35.

Pcpn exits off the coast Wed evening with decreasing clouds after
midnite. Cold as yet another shot of arctic air overspreads the
area so would think any snow or water from the storm freezes
solid. Lows 15-20 except lwr 20s sern coastal zones.

Qpf has nudged up slightly ~.10 east of the i95 corridor, .10
to .25 i-95 corridor and west. Expect varying slr's across the
fa as well ranging from arnd 10:1 across the SE to as much as
15:1 over the piedmont. This translates mainly to an advsry
level event with amts ranging from inch or less east of i95, 1-2
inches along the i95 corridor, 2 to 4 inches across the
piedmont (given the higher slrs). Will hold off on headlines for
one more cycle, as it appears models are starting to click into
agreement. Advisories will likely be needed for a good part of
the CWA given timing.

Behind the system, departing upper trough will usher in another
quick burst of arctic air for Wed night into Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night back down into the teens to around 20. Could see
some high single digits possible inland Wed night.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Pattern change looks to occur during the medium range period with a
significant warmup expected through the upcoming weekend early next
week. It will still be on the cold side Thu night with sfc high
pressure centered across the deep south, and one last upper trough
moving SE through the great lakes and off the new england coast fri
morning. Mostly clear skies will prevail over the local area with
lows mainly in the 20s though depending on remaining snow cover,
some upper teens will be possible across interior southern va.

Latest gfs ECMWF cmc depict the upper trough moving well off the new
england coast Fri with a broad upper level ridge building over the
eastern CONUS Fri aftn through the weekend. Expect continued dry
conditions with warming temperatures, highs in the upper 40s lower
50s fri, rising well into the 50s (possibly near 60f) sat, and into
the 60s (except at the immediate coast eastern shore) for sun. Lows
fri night Sat am in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and Sat night Sun am in
the 30s to around 40f. Some timing differences arise by sun
night mon, but overall expect increasing clouds ahead of the next
front Sun night and will carry a chc for showers Mon mon night. Mild
with lows in the 40s and highs Mon mainly in the 60s.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Wide variety of conditions tonight with primarily ifr to lifr
ceilings for the eastern half of the CWA and mainly clear
skiesVFR west of i-95. Fog has also formed mainly east of i-95
across the area of low ceilings, fog may be locally dense at
times. Conditions slowly improve during the day today with lower
ceilings expected to linger near the coast through the early
afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate once again Tuesday night
as a potent upper level trough brings thickening and lowering
clouds. Light winds will average 5 knots or less for the most
part which will tend to keep an onshore flow at the immediate
coast, but shifting to the S well inland.

Outlook: expect flight restrictions on Wed with snow showers as
clipper and associated cold front crosses the region. Clearing
wed night with breezy N winds near the coast. PredominateVFR
then likely Thu Fri as the trough ejects NE offshore.

Marine
Late this aftn, ~1048mb high pressure is centered over ern
canada, and was ridging to the ssw along the piedmont. Also,
weak low pressure was well off the mid atlc coast. This
combination was still resulting in a nne wind of 10-20 kt
acrs the waters, with a few gusts near 25 kt just off the NE nc
coastal waters. Seas were ranging fm near 4 ft nearshore, to as
high as 8 ft out around 20 nm. Scas are in effect until 7 pm
this evening for the mouth of the ches bay and currituck snd,
and until 15z Tue for seas for the coastal waters. The wind
should diminish by tue, as a weak surface ridge settles near
the coast. A surface cold front crosses the coast Tue night,
with strong CAA lagging behind until the upper trough arrives
wed evening into early thu. The wind is expected to become n
10-20 kt wed, and then NW 15-25 kt Wed night into early thu.

Sca conditions are likely for wind and seas. High pressure
settles over the area by Thu aftn and Thu night, and then
slides off the southeast coast fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz632>634-
636>638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Lkb mam
short term... Mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb lkb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 1 mi42 min N 5.8 G 7.8 31°F 1033.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi52 min NNW 12 G 14 1031.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi52 min NNW 8 G 8 31°F 1031.6 hPa
44072 25 mi42 min N 7.8 G 9.7 31°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi52 min NW 4.1 G 6 31°F 35°F1030.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi52 min NW 1.9 30°F 1032 hPa29°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi52 min N 9.9 G 13 35°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi52 min WNW 1.9 G 8 31°F 34°F1030.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi52 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 30°F 32°F1031.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi42 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 30°F 1031.1 hPa
CHBV2 38 mi52 min NNW 9.9 G 12 32°F 1029.5 hPa
44064 40 mi42 min N 9.7 G 12 32°F 1030.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi52 min N 8 G 8 1030.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi52 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 31°F 1031.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi52 min N 4.1 G 4.1
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi52 min 36°F1030.9 hPa
44096 44 mi61 min 39°F4 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi52 min NNW 11 G 12
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi52 min N 6 G 8 32°F 1030.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi52 min N 5.1 G 6 30°F 31°F1031.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi27 minNNW 32.50 miOvercast31°F30°F97%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N5N4N3NW6N4NW4NW5NW4NW6N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN6N4NW3NW4N5NW11
G15
N8N5NE5N8N8N8N6N4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3N5N3
2 days agoSW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:41 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:00 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.1-0-0.10.10.40.711.21.31.210.70.40.1-0-00.20.40.7111

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:52 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:04 AM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:15 PM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.2-0-0.100.30.711.31.41.31.10.80.40.2-0-00.10.40.711.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.