Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:20 AM EST (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 706 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt later this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves building to 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ600 706 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the coast later today. High pressure returns Wednesday, with another cold front crossing the region Wednesday night. Strong high pressure builds into the northeast and mid atlantic states Thursday into Thursday night. The high moves farther off to the northeast on Friday as the next system approaches from the southwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201158
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
658 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front crosses the mid atlantic today. Weak high
pressure builds across the area from the west tonight into
Wednesday, before another strong cold front passes through the area
later Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds across the area
for thanksgiving day into Friday. A low pressure system then impacts
the region Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 700 am est Tuesday...

current goes-16 WV imagery depicts a broad trough across
much of the central and ERN conus. A the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is pushing off the nj coast, with a cold front
trailing back to the wsw into the appalachians. Stratus
over the ERN shore, SE va, and NE nc has dissipated as bkn-ovc
ac has moved overhead. Partial clearing is occurring over the
piedmont, where some patchy fog is possible early this morning.

Temperatures are milder this morning ranging from the mid 40s
to mid 50s, although portions of the far WRN piedmont counties
have dropped into the upper 30s low 40s where partial clearing
has occurred. The cold front will push into the NW half of the
area later this morning, and then push off the coast later this
aftn. Mixing with the front will help boost high temperatures
into the upper 50s to low 60s despite falling 850mb
temperatures. Mostly cloudy to overcast this morning with a
slight chc of showers across the ERN third of the area, and then
becoming partly cloudy variably cloudy by this aftn. The wind
will become NW behind the front with occasional gusts to ~20mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

high pressure builds in from the wnw tonight, with the
surface ridge axis dropping S of the local area by Wednesday.

Cooler drier air filters into the area tonight, with low
temperatures dropping to around 30f low 30s from the piedmont to the
md ERN shore, with mid upper 30s farther SE under a clear sky. The
low-level flow becomes wsw Wednesday with high temperatures rising
to around 50f over the ERN shore, to the low mid 50s farther inland.

A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night, with canadian
high pressure building across the mid-atlantic thanksgiving day.

This cold front will be dry, however there will be an appreciable
change in temperatures on thanksgiving as the coldest airmass of the
fall season arrives. The latest eps GEFS guidance support daytime
highs only in the mid-upper 30s north (low 30s md ERN shore) and
lower-mid 40s farther s. In fact, temperatures will struggle to rise
too much Thursday despite a mostly sunny sky (although a bay
streamer is possible) given the strong cold advection and a blustery
n wind. These temperatures are some 20-25 degrees below seasonal
averages for this time of year, however not unprecedented for nov
23. See climate section for further details.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

very cold Thursday night with the surface ridge axis over the
area leading to clear calm conditions. At this time, record lows
are not in jeopardy (but close at ric and sby), however temps
will still be very cold for this time of year generally in the
mid upper teens far N NW to upper 20s se. Friday will be sunny
and a little warmer than Thursday, but still highs only in the
low mid 40s N NW to the upper 40s around 50f se. Next southern
stream system moves out of the deep south Friday night and
impacts the area Sat aftn into Saturday night as it moves over
the middle atlantic. Cold dry air will initially be slow to
retreat over the piedmont, and therefore, pcpn could begin as a
mix of ra pl over the NW piedmont if it begins early enough.

Otherwise, very good agreement in timing and area of precip
between the GFS and ecmwf. Expect rain to develop by Saturday
afternoon and continue through Saturday evening as the low
passes across the area. Will therefore go with likely pops
across the entire region during this time. Some differences in
model solutions on Sunday and Monday with the GFS being more
progressive with the next system yielding a chance for showers
later Sunday into Sun night, while the gem and the ECMWF are
more amplified with the plains trough and associated frontal
system leading to a dry Sunday with chances for rain on Monday.

For now, will go with the gem ECMWF solution and keep the
forecast dry on Sunday with the better chances for rain next
Monday.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be closer to normal with upper
50s lower 60s. Slightly cooler on Monday, but still mid 50s-
around 60.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 700 am est Tuesday...

stratus has dissipated as bkn-ovc ac of 8-10kft has moved
overhead. Vsby is mainly AOA 6sm, although there is some patchy
fog W and N of ric, but any fog is not expected to impact ric
early this morning. There is a minimal chc of showers later
this morning as the upper disturbance moves across the area. A
cold front then pushes through the area during the aftn with the
wind becoming NW and potentially gusting to 15-20kt at sby ric.

High pressure builds in from the NW tonight, with the wind
becoming light, and the sky becoming clear.

High pressure slides offshore Wednesday ahead of another cold
front, which drops across the region late Wednesday night into
thanksgiving morning. The wind will become N and potentially
gust to ~25kt along the coast, and streamer clouds are possible
off the bay as a cold airmass overspreads relatively warmer
water. High pressure builds across the region Thursday night
into Friday. A low pressure system crosses the area Saturday
bringing the potential for rain and degraded flight conditions.

Marine
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

w SW winds of 10-15 kt prevail early this morning out ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west. The front will move through
the area early this aftn, shifting winds to the nw. Cold advection
and pressure rises in the wake of the front are not overly
impressive, but should see winds increase to 15-20 kt over northern
sections later this aftn and probably another few kt by early
evening. Will continue with SCA headlines for the bay north of new
pt comfort and also added the coastal waters north of parramore
island for expected gusts to ~25 kt and seas building to around
5 ft at the outer edges of the 20 nm zone by this evening.

The winds and waves seas should subside diminish below sca
thresholds by early Wed morning as weak high pressure briefly builds
over the waters. A strong cold front is expected to cross the area
wed night, with strong sfc high pressure building south into the
region for thanksgiving day. The pressure gradient is not excessive,
but cold advection is impressive for this time of year with deep
mixing over the relatively warm waters likely. Thus, went a few kt
stronger than guidance and anticipate strong SCA conditions for much
of the area (probably enough that all zones may need headlines).

Seas build to 5-7 ft and bay waves to ~ 4 ft. Conditions briefly
improve for fri, then winds ramp up again with the next system
sat.

Hydrology
As of 400 am est Tuesday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for mattoax on the
appomattox, sebrell on the nottoway, and an areal flood warning
is in effect for the mattaponi at beulahville. See flsakq or
flwakq for more site-specific information

Climate
***record low maximum temps for nov 22***
ric... 36 (1929)
orf... 39 (2008)
sby... 36 (1989)
ecg... 41 (1972)
***record low temperatures for nov 23**
ric... 20 (2008)
orf... 23 (2008)
sby... 15 (2008)
ecg... 19 (1937)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Wednesday for anz650-652.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Wednesday for anz630-631.

Synopsis... Ajz mrd
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz mrd
long term... Ajz mrd
aviation... Ajz
marine... Lkb
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 1 mi20 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 53°F1 ft1014.1 hPa (+0.9)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi32 min SW 5.1 G 6 1013.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi32 min W 7 G 8 54°F 1013.8 hPa
44072 25 mi30 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 53°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi32 min SW 12 G 15 54°F 54°F1012.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi50 min SW 1 52°F 1014 hPa51°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi32 min WSW 11 G 13 55°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi32 min W 5.1 G 8.9 53°F 51°F1012.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi38 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 49°F1012.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi20 min W 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 52°F1012.3 hPa (+1.5)
44087 37 mi50 min 54°F1 ft
CHBV2 38 mi38 min WSW 8.9 G 12 54°F 1012.1 hPa
44064 40 mi30 min SW 12 G 14 54°F 1013.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi38 min SW 9.9 G 12 53°F 1012.9 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi38 min SW 8.9 G 11 53°F 1013.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi38 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi38 min 54°F1013.4 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi32 min SW 9.9 G 13 53°F 1011.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi32 min W 6 G 7 51°F 49°F1013.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi32 min SW 8 G 9.9 54°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi50 minN 05.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F49°F100%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmS4CalmW4S3CalmSE3S3S3CalmE3S3S3S4S4S4S4S4SE3CalmCalmSW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmE4S4S5SE4S7SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN3NE8CalmSW3W6SW4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
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Tue -- 01:40 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EST     1.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:53 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.30.60.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.20.20.40.711.21.31.210.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:55 AM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:30 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:11 PM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.20.10.20.50.91.21.51.51.41.20.90.60.30.20.20.40.711.31.41.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.