Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:51PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:17 PM EST (17:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1002 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sleet late this morning. Rain.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 1002 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure will track northeast from the gulf of mexico today. A frontal boundary then stalls over the southeast and mid atlantic states through Friday. Another low pressure system arrives by Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201542
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1042 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast from the gulf of mexico
today. A frontal boundary then stalls over the southeast and mid
atlantic states through Friday. Another low pressure system arrives
by Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1030 am Wednesday..

The going forecast is on track. Much of the area along west of
i-95 has turned to freezing rain. However, with the ground and
road temps relatively warm, any ice accumulation seems to be
only on elevated surfaces. Across the southern piedmont, 2m
temps still at freezing, but the wet bulb is also 32 so expect a
change over to just rain shortly. With this in mind, the
expectation is that the advisory across the southern piedmont
will be allowed to expire at noon. With the wet bulb temps still
in the upper 20s to around 30 across the northern piedmont and
the ric metro and points north, will maintain the advisory until
3pm, but again expect the main impacts to be just on elevated
surfaces. Louisa and fluvanna counties will stay freezing rain
through the late afternoon with temps stuggling to rise above
freezing.

Snow continues across the md eastern shore. This will change to
rain later this morning into this afternoon as the warm nose
pushes north. Again, with temps near freezing the snow
accumulation will likely be on the grassy surfaces as traffic
cams in md show very little accumulation on the roadways. Will
keep the advisory going there as well until 3pm but it is
possible that the transition to rain will before this time.

As of 705 am Wednesday...

goes WV imagery continues to show a deep trough over the
intermountain west and high plains, with a ridge over the
subtropical WRN atlantic. A potent trough is lifting NE through
the central conus, with 1037mb surface high pressure is
centered over SRN new england, and an inverted trough over the
tennessee valley. Pcpn has slowly arrived early this morning,
and began as a ra ip mix, before changing to sn. However, the
intensity has been light and temperatures have slowly dropped
to 32f for most locations from the piedmont to the md ern
shore, and hence the threat for fzra is diminishing.

850mb WAA strengthens this morning. Therefore, 850-700mb
thickness values will rise very quickly while 1000-850mb
thickness values will be slower to increase as surface high
pressure remains in vicinity of SRN new england. Therefore,
expect snow to quickly transition to sleet, with freezing rain
still possible over the NW piedmont. All rain should push into
s-central va after 7am, and then NW of the i-85 us 360 corridor
after 10am. Warm air aloft will continue to deepen during the
aftn, while the cool surface layer will slowly shallow. Most
areas will rise above 32f by mid-late aftn, with the exception
of the far NW where some pockets of freezing rain could
continue. Snow accum is forecast to range from a t-0.1" from the
sw piedmont to the va ERN shore, with 0.5-1.0" from the central
piedmont toward the ric metro and most of the md ERN shore, and
1-3" for the NW piedmont, n-central va, and dorchester md. Ice
accum is forecast to range from a t to a few hundredths of an
inch for the i-95 corridor and 0.05-0.10" over the piedmont.

Winter weather advisories remain for the piedmont to the ric
metro to the NRN neck and md ERN shore. Forecast highs today
range from the low 30s NW to the upper 30s low 40s central, and
low 50s far se.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
As of 405 am est Wednesday...

mostly rain by tonight (albeit a cold rain nw) with
temperatures remaining rather steady through the night. A cold
front aloft slowly pushes through the area Thursday with the
highest rain chances shifting se. Temperatures will be
challenging Thursday and will largely be dictated by whether or
not any clearing can occur by aftn. Temperatures aloft will be
quite warm (6-10f) at 850mb, but the low-level cool airmass my
not completely scour out if clouds hold strong. For now,
forecast highs are mainly in the 50s. Total liquid QPF for the
event ranges from 0.75" S to 1.25" n.

A weak boundary will linger across the southern tier of the cwa
into Friday. Could see some lingering showers light rain across
the SE with shallow overrunning moisture on Friday. However,
should just portend to more clouds than Sun and a short-lived
lull in precipitation Friday. Slightly cooler with highs mainly
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 340 pm Tuesday...

high pressure slowly moves from ny to new england Fri as a
cad wedge pattern remains in place over the cwa. An area of
steady light-moderate rain will quickly overspread the entire
region (from SW to ne) late Fri evening through Sat am as a
potent upper shortwave (along W sfc low pressure) moves from
the rockies to the plains midwest. Rain continues throughout the
region during the day on sat. A warm front lifts N toward the
region late Sat (and crosses the region Sat night) in response
to a deepening area of sfc low pressure tracking from the plains
to the midwest. Temperatures remain in the 40s in most areas on
sat as the rain falls. The steady rain departs to the N NE sat
night as the warm front crosses the region. Temperatures will
slowly rise Sat night (forecast temps at 12z Sun range from the
upper 40s nw-upper 50s se) as winds veer to the S then ssw
behind the front. Shower chances continue on Sun before the
trailing cold front crosses the region during the aftn as the
aforementioned sfc low tracks into SE canada. Not much in the
way of QPF W the cold FROPA on sun. Expect it to be a warm day
throughout the region on Sun as temperatures rise into the low-
mid 70s in most areas (w 60s on the ERN shore).

Drier (but not that cold) Mon mon night as sfc high pressure briefly
settles into the region. Our next chance of rain is late tue-wed, as
low pressure approaches from the west. Highs on Mon will be in the
upper 50s-low 60s in most areas (except for mid 50s on the ern
shore). Lows mainly in the 30s Mon night W highs rising into the
upper 40s n-mid 50s in SE va NE nc on tue.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 700 am est Wednesday...

high pressure is centered over SRN new england as of 12z, with
low pressure over the tennessee valley. Light fzra is occurring
at ric and should change to ra by 14z. Sn should begin at sby by
around 14z, transition to sn pl by midday and then ra by aftn.

Phf orf ecg should generally be rain-free for the next few
hours, before rain develops later this morning into the aftn.

Vsby is expected to drop to 2sm or less in sn at sby and
generally be 2-5sm at ric, with 3-5sm at phf orf ecg once ra
(and br) develops later this morning. Ric should mainly have an
ifr cig through the TAF period, with ifr CIGS developing at sby
later this morning, closer to midday at phf, and after 18z at
orf ecg. Ifr CIGS will persist into tonight along with
occasional ra dz.

The chc of rain gradually ends from nw-se Thursday with
conditions slowly improving. High pressure builds N of the
region Thursday night into Friday. However, moisture will
continue to spread over the region with clouds and a minimal chc
of light rain continuing. Low pressure, and more rain and
flight restrictions are expected Friday night into Saturday. A
cold front crosses the region Saturday.

Marine
As of 300 am est Wednesday...

sfc hi pres sits from near the mid-atlantic coast nwd to far se
canada attm... W complex lo pres taking shape INVOF lower ms
valley. Primary lo pres expected to track nne to the great lakes
today... Pulling a frontal boundary nwd from the SE states. A
weak secondary area of lo pres will develop along that boundary
over the coastal carolinas this afternoon... Then track through
the tidewater of SE and E va late this afternoon evening before
a cold front from the wnw enters the local waters during thu.

Ene winds starting out from 5-15 kt... Are slow to increase this
morning into this afternoon as sfc hi pres drifts out over the
ocean and ahead of the weak sfc lo pres approaching from the
ssw. Models showing only moderate speed increases over most of
the waters... W the highest speeds anticipated INVOF the lower
bay... On the sound and over the ocean by late today this evening.

Have made a few adjustments to the scas... Confining them to the
hi prob areas list in previous sentence. Winds become ssw
tonight then wsw Thu (at generally diminished speeds)... W scas
to eventually be confined to the NRN ocean (thu) due to seas
near 5 ft. Hi pres builds into the region late Thu into fri
before another system approaches the region late Fri into sat. A
stronger cold front likely impacts the region by the second
half of the weekend.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
mdz021.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for mdz022>024.

Nc... None.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz048-
509-510.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
vaz061-062-064-069-075>078-511-512-515>517-519-521-522.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for vaz060-
065>068-079-080-513-514.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 11 am est
Thursday for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz631-
632-634-636-638.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz633.

Synopsis... Ajz mam
near term... Ajz mrd
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ajb alb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi29 min E 19 G 22 1031 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi29 min E 17 G 19 39°F 1030.3 hPa
44072 25 mi27 min 39°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi47 min ENE 4.1 34°F 1031 hPa33°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi29 min E 17 G 19 39°F 44°F1029.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi35 min E 12 G 19 44°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi29 min E 19 G 22 38°F 42°F1029.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi35 min E 16 G 20 35°F 39°F1031.1 hPa
44087 37 mi47 min 43°F3 ft
CHBV2 38 mi35 min E 19 G 22 40°F 1028.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi35 min E 19 G 24 40°F 1028.6 hPa
44064 40 mi27 min ESE 19 G 21 40°F 1029.1 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi35 min E 14 G 21 40°F 1029.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi35 min ENE 7 G 8.9
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi35 min 46°F1029.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi29 min E 20 G 21 40°F 1027.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi29 min E 11 G 14 41°F 1029.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi29 min ENE 12 G 17 34°F 40°F1031.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi42 minENE 41.75 miOvercast34°F33°F100%1031.2 hPa

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Last 24hrN3N4N5NW5N6NE5CalmNE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E7E6NE5E7NE8E6NE6
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2 days agoNW3CalmSE5S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
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Wed -- 04:45 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:41 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:05 PM EST     1.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.20.20.71.21.51.51.410.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.300.40.91.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:55 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:59 AM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:32 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.20.90.40-0.3-0.4-0.20.10.71.21.51.71.51.20.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.40.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.