Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wachapreague, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:48PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:14 PM EST (02:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 5:17AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 650 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, building to 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds, subsiding to 2 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds late.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain, snow and sleet likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SE winds 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ600 650 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight, and lifts northeast off the mid atlantic coast Monday morning. High pressure builds north of the region Monday into Tuesday, with more unsettled conditions returning for midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wachapreague, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180056
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
756 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will move through the region tonight, and lift northeast
off the mid atlantic coast Monday morning. High pressure builds
north of the local area Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled conditions
return Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next storm system moves
northeast from the gulf of mexico. A frontal boundary then
stalls over the southeast and mid atlantic states through
Friday.

Near term through Monday
As of 750 pm est Sunday...

update...

sfc obs and spotter reports of t wnw of ric... So have added
slgt chc t for areas N and NW of ric for the next few hours.

Previous discussion:
latest analysis indicates sfc high pressure now well off to our
ne off the coast (this is associated with strong parent sfc
high centered over NW central canada). Meanwhile, main sfc low
pressure (~1005 mb) is centered over eastern ky, with a sfc
trough extending NE into western pa. Precipitation amounts so
far today have been fairly light (only up to around 0.10"). This
1st batch of overrunning moisture had to overcome dry low
levels and the main region of lift through the dgz is already
pushing off the coast. Thus, only some spotty light rain is
expected into the early evening hrs. Temperatures range from the
mid- upper 30s in the piedmont to the upper 40s over far SE va
and NE nc.

For later this evening, the next wave of moisture will be associated
with the actual sfc low riding ene along the advancing frontal
boundary. This will lead to a more substantial widespread area
of moderate rain, with some locally heavier rain from time to
time, especially after midnight over southern SE va where qpf
amounts will avg from 075" to around 1.00". Upper level jet
streak off to the NW will further aid deep lift aloft to support pops
overnight of 80-100%, while the rain may be heavy at times, this
is still not expected to lead to any significant flooding concerns.

Lows will range from the the mid 30s NW to the mid 40s se.

This wave pushes off the coast Mon morning with pcpn tapering
off west to east in the morning (lingering the longest in far se
va NE nc). Skies are expected to become partly to mostly sunny
by late morning or early aftn. Overall, Mon should turn out to
be a nicer day and much milder with highs mainly in the 50s,
potentially even into the lower 60s in NE nc.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
As of 350 pm est Sunday...

mostly clear and seasonably cold Mon night with lows in the
mid upper 20s inland to the lower 30s SE coast as strong sfc
high pressure builds in from the great lakes. Remaining dry, but
with increasing clouds on Tue along with much colder temps with
highs in the 40s due to nne flow.

Latest 12z 17 suite of models are in pretty good agreement with
a significant storm system ejecting NE from the gulf of mexico
tue night and tracking through the tn oh valley as strong sfc
high pressure lingers over the NE conus, slowly retreating ene
into new england. As it should be initially rather cold tue
night Wed morning, this pattern favors the piedmont and northern
sections of the forecast area for snow mixed precipitation,
while SE portions will tend to quickly change to all rain wed
morning. Exact position and strength of the sfc high will be key
in how long cold air can stay in place. First cut at p-type and
snow ice accumulations are for 3-4" of snow in the NW with
less than one inch over far southern SE va and NE nc. Typical
battle zone Wed morning will likely be across metro richmond.

Rather warm mid level h85-h7 thicknesses suggest period for all
snow will be limited to early Wed am, then transitioning to
sleet and potentially some freezing rain in areas that can
remain at or below 32f through midday early aftn. Have a zone of
up to 0,10" of ice accumulation across western zones. Will
continue to be watching this scenario, as slight changes could
lead to little to no wintry precipitation for most of the area,
or higher amounts if the sfc high ends up stronger colder than
currently anticipated. Highs Wed in the mid 30s nw, to the
lower-mid 50s NE nc.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 350 pm est Sunday...

a deep upper trough is progged to remain over the WRN conus
late this week, while an upper level anticyclone remains centered a
few hundred miles E of the bahamas. Several disturbances embedded in
the resulting SW flow aloft are progged to affect the area from thu
through the weekend. With less cold air in place (when compared to
tue night-wed), expect that pcpn remains in the form of ra
throughout the extended period.

Periods of ra continue Wed night as a warm front slowly moves N as
the cad wedge pattern erodes. This will lead to slowly rising
temperatures throughout the area Wed night. Temperatures will rise
into the low 40s NW while 50s prevail over SE va NE nc by sunrise
thu. A weak cold front crosses the area during the day on thu. This
may give us a brief break in the rain from Thu night-fri night
(especially north of i-64 E of i-95). However, rain will quickly
overspread the entire region again Fri night-sat as the WRN upper
trough deamplifies starts to move e. At the same time, a warm front
lifts N toward the region, allowing a cad wedge pattern to set up
over the CWA late fri-sat. The warm front lifts N of the CWA sat
night as sfc low pressure deepens to our W NW but rain chances
continue. Rain chances finally decrease by Sun night as the area of
sfc low pressure tracks to our N and the associated cold front
crosses the region. Still anticipating a pattern change next week as
an upper ridge amplifies over the ERN pacific while as a upper low
becomes anchored over the hudson bay. The flow aloft is progged to
remain zonal over much of the CONUS (leading to a period of quieter
wx).

Despite the rain on thu, highs will be in the mid 50s-low 60s in
most areas (w mid 60s in SE va NE nc). Lows Thu night will range
from the mid-upper 30 N to the low-mid 40s s. Highs Fri will be in
the upper 40s-low 50s in most areas. Lows only fall into the upper
30s-low 40s Fri night. Highs Sat will range from the upper 40s NW to
around 60f se. Warmer on Sun as forecast highs are in the upper 50s-
upper 60s (coolest N nw, warmest in NE nc).

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
As of 645 pm est Sunday...

MVFR CIGS prevail from ric-ecg southwestward (w ifr CIGS not
too far SW of ric) this evening as an area of ra has overspread the
nrn half of va (including some -ra at ric). Expect this area of ra
to move into sby during the next couple of hours, while missing the
southeastern terminals to the n. Widespread ra (and thus reduced
vsbys) will hold off across the SE until ~03z or so. CIGS slowly
lower to ifr from W to E from 02-06z as the ra moves in. Ifr (or
even occasional lifr) CIGS then persist through the remainder of the
night. Vsbys will fluctuate between 2-5sm in the rain through the
night before rain tapers off from W to E between 12-16z. Expect slow
improvement Mon morning, with CIGS lifting to MVFR at ric by ~12z.

Ifr CIGS may hang on a couple hours longer near the coast before
lifting to MVFR. GFS lamp guidance is forecasting ifr CIGS to
prevail near the coast (especially near ecg) until midday, but did
not go this far W prevailing ifr in the tafs attm. Winds remain aob
10 kt through tonight before shifting to the wnw by late
morning aftn and may gust to 20 kt or slightly higher Mon aftn.

Outlook... Pattern remains active through the week. Remaining dryVFR
mon night through most of tue, but deteriorating conditions are
likely Tue night Wed as another system affect the region. A lot of
uncertainty, but snow or mixed precipitation is more likely at
kric ksby than at korf kphf kecg where most of the event looks like
rain. Periodic ifr conditions are expected. Chances for rain and
more flight restrictions continue Thu fri.

Marine
As of 350 pm est Sunday...

current observations show E to SE winds around 5 to 10 knots over
the waters. Seas are generally 3 to 4 feet and waves in the bay 1 to
2 feet. A warm front slowly lifts across the region later tonight
shifting the winds from SE to SW with wind speeds around 10 to 15
knots. A cold front will cross the region during the day tomorrow
with high pressure returning tomorrow night. SCA conditions are
expected late Monday into Tuesday morning as colder air filters into
the region. Expect NW winds around 15 to 25 knots with occasional
gusts to 30 knots over the coastal waters Monday night and NW winds
of 15 to 20 knots over the bay currituck sound. Seas will also build
to around 5 feet or greater, especially out 20 nm. As a result, have
hoisted small craft advisories for all marine zones minus the
rivers. Winds diminish during the day on Tuesday with high pressure
making a brief return to the region. Another low pressure system
approaches the region late Tuesday and impacts the area into
Thursday. Conditions remain unsettled through the end of the week as
yet another low pressure system affects the area.

Equipment
Akq radar is down due to a broken part that is on order and
expected to arrive mon. Ftm and usos sent.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm Monday to 7 am est Tuesday for
anz630>632-634-650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm Monday to 10 am est Tuesday
for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm Monday to 7 am est Tuesday for
anz656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Alb lkb
short term... Jdm lkb
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri lkb
marine... Ajb ajz
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 4 mi45 min ENE 8.9 G 11 41°F 44°F1013.8 hPa
44089 19 mi45 min 42°F3 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 21 mi45 min ENE 6 G 8 1015.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 35 mi45 min E 5.1 G 7 44°F
44072 43 mi45 min 41°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi45 min NE 5.1 G 6 41°F 1015.6 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi45 min 44°F3 ft
44064 47 mi45 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 42°F 1014.1 hPa
44087 48 mi45 min 44°F1 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi45 min ESE 9.9 G 11 39°F 41°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA9 mi20 minE 32.00 miHeavy Rain41°F38°F91%1014.9 hPa

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Last 24hrN3N3N4N5N6N6NE5NE5NE5NE4CalmNE4E8E8E5NE5CalmCalmSE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:16 PM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.61.733.94.54.643.11.90.9-0-0.5-0.40.51.62.73.543.83.120.9-0

Tide / Current Tables for The Swash, south end, Virginia
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The Swash
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:28 PM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:26 PM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.41.52.83.84.44.64.23.22.110.1-0.5-0.40.31.42.53.443.93.22.21.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.