Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painter, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:55PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:25 PM EST (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 347 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Through 7 pm..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 347 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds over the region through tonight, and then slides offshore later Sunday into Monday. A cold front crosses the coast Tuesday, with high pressure building north of the region by the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painter, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 172116
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
416 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the region tonight, maintaining
dry weather into through early next week. A weak disturbance
approaches the region late Monday into Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 355 pm est Saturday...

latest surface analysis shows ~1025mb sfc high pressure over the
mid-south central gulf coast region. Quasi-zonal w-sw flow aloft
east of the rockies this afternoon. Some mid to high clouds
noted across the deep south, as a weak disturbance was noted
sliding across the southern plains toward the deep south.

Closer to home, a mainly clear sky over the region this
afternoon, as high pressure continues to build into the region
from the southwest. Did see some sct-bkn CU stratocu earlier
this afternoon with a narrow bay streamer, but that has scoured
out this afternoon with wind shifting diminishing over the past
few hours. Despite downslope flow aloft and plenty of sunshine,
modest cool air advection at the surface has kept temps a bit
cooler than normal today, largely in the low to mid 50s inland,
upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

Mainly clear sky continues this evening, with temperatures once
again falling off quickly after sunset. Previously mentioned
deep south upper wave will bring some high clouds late, but
should be thin enough that they will have little bearing on
overnight lows. Look for low temperatures just slightly milder
than last evening, mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s
inland... Mid to upper 30s at the coast.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
As of 355 pm est Saturday...

surface high pressure builds overhead Sunday. Continued quasi-
zonal, progressive flow aloft will bring another quiet, pleasant
day. Temperatures do moderate a bit more as winds do turn around
to the e-se. Despite the modest warm up, temperatures remain at
or just below climo norms. Highs again in the 50s to near 60
each day. Early morning lows ranging through the 30s to near 40.

A weak cold front approaches the region late Monday into Tuesday,
but with limited moisture and weak forcing to work with, not
expecting much of any precipitation across the region. Could see
a few sprinkles light rain along the albemarle sound Monday
morning, but chances of measuring precipitation occurring are
quite low, and have therefore kept pops at slight chance for
Monday. By late Monday, we will a better chance of some
scattered light rain showers mainly north of ric-sby line Monday
afternoon into Monday night... But again given rather shallow
overrunning, any QPF would be quite low, and have therefore kept
rain chances on the low side. Look for additional temp
moderation with temps warming out ahead of this system. High
temperatures Monday climbing up into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Overall timing of front continues to slow with 12z 17 model run.

Blended model solution now favors the (mainly dry) frontal
passage now occuring into the aftn on Tuesday (ecmwf remains
fastest within the guidance envelope, with the remaining
guidance leaning toward slower gfs). Given the eps looking a bit
slower than the operational ecmwf, have again favored slowing
timing down slightly. Therefore kept warm side of guidance for
Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Mainly dry w
majority of moisture forcing sliding off to our north.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 400 pm est Saturday...

the medium range period looks to be relatively quiet with dry wx and
below normal temperatures through fri, then becoming unsettled by
next Sat as low pressure moves NE from the gulf of mexico. Latest
suite of 12z 17 models are in good agreement that a strong upper
level trough moves ese from hudson bay canada on Wed to the canadian
maritimes by 12z fri. Strong cold sfc high pressure (>1035 mb) will
build SE from the upper great lakes to the NE states on
thanksgiving, before settling from eastern ny state new england to
the mid-atlc by fri. After a dry cool but seasonal day on Wed with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, temperatures really trend colder
for thanksgiving day and Fri with highs only in the 40s for the most
part even with ample sunshine. Lows will be mainly in the 30s wed
night, but down into the 20s for most of the region for thanksgiving
night Fri morning. By late Fri fri night into sat, the nw
flow confluent zone aloft shifts E off the new england coast and sfc
high pressure retreats to the ne. GFS is slowest to bring moisture
into the local area for sat, the gem ECMWF being a little faster.

Have gone with high chance to low-end likely pops by Sat aftn for
the piedmont with chance elsewhere. Highs will show the typical
cad wedge pattern, eventually reaching into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s over NE nc far SE va, while holding in the upper 40s lower
50s nw.

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
As of 1250 pm est Saturday...

vfr conditions across area terminals this afternoon... With the
lone exception with some bay-induced MVFR CIGS across the
eastern tidewater area, which is bringing some sct-bkn
stratocumulus and high-end MVFR CIGS to korf and vicinity this
afternoon. Expect these clouds at ~2.5-3 kft agl to break within
the next few hours, with high confidence that dry,VFR
conditions will prevail through the 18z TAF period. Winds will
remain generally light and variable through the forecast period
away from the coast.

Outlook:VFR and dry conditions will continue through early next
week as high pressure builds across the region.

Marine
As of 400 pm est Saturday...

late this aftn, one area of high pressure was right over the
waters, while a second area was centered over WRN pa. The center
of that high will slide ene and off the new england coast
tonight thru thu. Northerly winds 5-10 kt late this aftn, will
become NE everywhere late tonight into Sun morning. Winds 5-10
kt become E then SE during sun, then sse becoming SW or W sun
night into Mon morning. A cold front moves through the area
tue morning, with the wind becoming NW then N 5-15 kt by tue
night. Strong high pressure builds N of the region late wed
night thru thu, resulting in increasing NW then N winds.

Hydrology
As of 355 pm est Saturday...

cancelled flood warning for lawrenceville. River flood warnings
remain in effect for mattoax on the appomattox, on the
meherrin, sebrell on the nottoway, richmond westham on the
james, and richmond locks on the james. See flsakq for more
site-specific information

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajb mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Tmg
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 5 mi38 min NW 1 G 1 42°F 51°F1026 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi38 min NE 5.1 G 6 1026.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 25 mi36 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 1026.7 hPa
44089 27 mi56 min 58°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi44 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 55°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 37 mi38 min E 5.1 G 6 48°F 1026.4 hPa
44072 37 mi36 min Calm G 3.9 48°F
CHBV2 41 mi44 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 1024.7 hPa
44064 43 mi36 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 48°F 1025.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi36 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 1025.1 hPa
44087 43 mi56 min 55°F1 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 44 mi38 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 47°F 55°F1025.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi38 min N 2.9 G 2.9 45°F 48°F1026.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi44 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 49°F1025.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi26 min 58°F3 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 47 mi38 min NE 5.1 G 7 48°F 1024.1 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair40°F36°F89%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN5N4N4N7N6N5NE9N8N5N7N5N4NE3E17
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Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
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Wachapreague
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:18 AM EST     3.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:50 PM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:55 PM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.533.43.73.63.12.41.91.30.911.52.32.93.33.83.93.62.92.21.50.90.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:47 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:41 AM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.711.41.61.61.51.31.10.80.60.50.50.711.41.61.71.61.41.10.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.