Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painter, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:13AMMoonset 1:47PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1017 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 foot late.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 1017 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered over the waters this afternoon...then slides off the coast through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painter, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231425
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1025 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure prevails over the region today, sliding offshore
tonight through Saturday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday
into the upcoming weekend. Low pressure tracks across the region
early next week.

Near term /through tonight/
A cool and dry morning is observed across the region thanks to
a ~1033mb high centered over the northern mid-atlantic region. A
shortwave digging down the backside of the exiting upper trough
has resulted in a few high clouds over the region, but little
impact to radiational cooling. Temps will start the morning in
the 20's inland to low 30's across southeast virginia/northeast
north carolina.

High pressure settles over the region today as a broad
anomalous upper ridge over the central us builds eastward.

Despite moderating heights and low level thicknesses, a light
onshore flow and limited mixing will keep temperatures below
normal. Highs struggle into the low to mid 40's along the coast,
and into the low 50's inland. Otherwise, a clear sky prevails.

High pressure slides offshore tonight as winds become south to
southwest. Dewpoints begin to moderate overnight thanks to
modest return flow, but still cool with lows in the upper 20's
to low 30's inland. Cooler over the maryland eastern shore as
temperatures drop quickly into the mid 20's late this evening,
before light return flow warms temperatures into the low 30's
around daybreak.

Short term /Friday through Saturday/
Upper flow flattens Friday as an upper level low tracks into
the central plains. High pressure slides farther offshore,
resulting in increasing return flow over the forecast area.

Southwest winds increase to 15-20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30
mph. 850mb temperatures warm to around +6 to +8c (~1 standard
deviation). Have trended toward the warmest guidance Friday as
thicknesses depict temperatures warming into the mid 60's. A
shortwave tracking across the northern mid-atlantic region will
result in a partly cloudy sky, mostly across the northern half
of the local area. Breezy southwest winds Friday afternoon mix
dewpoints into the low to mid 30's Friday afternoon, resulting
in minimum relative humidity values as low as 30%. Mild Friday
night as light return flow continues ahead of an approaching
storm system. Lows generally in the upper 40's to low 50's.

The upper low begins to weaken/fill Saturday, tracking into the
lower missouri river valley late. Associated area of low
pressure also locates in the vicinity of northeast missouri. A
warm front will extend eastward over the northern mid-atlantic
region as the cold front tracks into the lower mississippi river
valley. The result will be ongoing return flow over the local
area. 850mb high pressure centers slides offshore, with better
moisture return expected, but conditions remain dry thanks to
ridging aloft (warm temperatures and a lack of forcing). Warm,
with highs in the mid to possibly upper 70's under a generally
partly cloudy sky.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to
above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level
ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the
mid atlantic/southeast coast. Main weather features of note will
be a series of mid/upper level troughs... Bringing a few periods
of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next
week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the
central/southern plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses
e-ne into the ohio valley and great lakes on Sunday and into the
northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated
to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. Qpf
will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening
dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our n-nw, and will
therefore maintain 40-60% pop over our western/nw tier for some
sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with
lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal
plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast
highs in the upper 50s to 60s northern neck and lower md eastern
shore... With upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into
early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a pair of
shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to
track east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains
and mid-south late Sat to early Monday. This system will
continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the
conus Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream
system will drop from the pac NW toward the northern plains
early Monday, eventually reaching the great lakes by the middle
of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these
systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z ec ensembles remains quicker
to dampen these features with the gfs/gefs a bit stronger/more
amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the
preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution
allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a
small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave
ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain
mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the northern
neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid 70s
inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern
sections.

Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/
High pressure/fair weather prevails over the region this
morning. A few high clouds at or above 25k feet agl are
streaming over the region, with little aviation impact. Surface
winds generally north to northeast at or below 10 knots. Skc
conditions expected today as high pressure settles over the
region. Winds become south to southeast this afternoon,
remaining at or below 10 knots.

Outlook... High pressure/fair weather prevails through Saturday.

A storm system approaches from the west on Sunday, with a good
chance of showers late Sunday through Monday.

Marine
Sfc hi pressure starting to build into the region, with winds
starting to diminish. Have cancelled the SCA headlines for bay
zones N of new pt comfort, and extended them through 1pm for the
lower bay where NE winds of 15-20 kt will persist another 2-3
hrs. For the coastal waters, seas have fallen off to 3-4 ft
across the N so the headlines N of parramore island have been
cancelled. They remain in effect through 1 to 4 pm this aftn
farther S (lingering the longest for nc waters where its still 6
ft at buoy 44100). Winds gradually shift more to the E by late
today at 10-15 kt or less.

Sfc hi pres remains off the coast tonight... W/ winds becoming sw
fri and lingering through sat. Speeds increase to 15-20 knots
by Fri afternoon as a storm system develops over the midwest.

The next front crosses the waters early next week... W/ relatively
benign marine conditions expected over the weekend in ssw winds
mainly AOB 15 kt. Seas averaging 2-3 ft... Waves 1-2 ft.

Equipment
Radar kdox remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter.

Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated
(though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday,
march 24th.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
anz632>634-654-656.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz658.

Synopsis... Bmd/sam
near term... Sam
short term... Sam
long term... Mam
aviation... Sam/lsa
marine... Alb/lkb
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 5 mi39 min ENE 8 G 9.9 34°F 45°F1038.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi39 min N 8.9 G 9.9 1039.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 25 mi27 min NE 7.8 G 12 32°F 47°F2 ft1038.8 hPa (+0.8)
44089 27 mi27 min 43°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi39 min NNE 7 G 9.9 46°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 37 mi39 min ENE 14 G 17 34°F 1037.8 hPa
44072 37 mi27 min NNE 12 G 16 33°F 47°F2 ft
44096 39 mi36 min 45°F4 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi27 min ENE 5.8 G 9.7 33°F 45°F1 ft1037.9 hPa (+0.6)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 44 mi39 min ENE 8.9 G 13 35°F 47°F1038.1 hPa
CBBV2 - 8638863 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 46 mi39 min NE 11 G 14 34°F 47°F1038.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi39 min NE 6 G 8.9 34°F 42°F1038.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi39 min ENE 5.1 G 8 34°F 46°F1038.5 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi45 min 45°F5 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 47 mi39 min NNE 9.9 G 14 34°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair38°F4°F25%1038.3 hPa

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW7N9
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NW8NW6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4NW4N14
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2 days agoNW11NW11
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NW10NW11NW7W4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3S6S4S6S6S6S5S5CalmSW3W4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
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Wachapreague
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:55 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:54 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.72.533.53.93.93.52.82.11.40.80.61.11.92.533.53.73.42.61.91.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:22 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.30.30.50.81.21.51.71.71.51.310.70.40.30.40.60.91.21.51.61.51.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.