Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:08 AM   Moonset 12:43 PM

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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1258 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves around 1 foot, diminishing to 1 foot or less and light chop late. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 1258 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure briefly builds in today. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 021034 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 634 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and very warm conditions are expected today as high pressure builds over the region. A backdoor cold front pushes inland on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

Dry and very warm weather is expected today as the upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US. Any fog burns off within in the next 1-2 hours and skies become mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 for inland locations (potentially lower 90s in a few typically warmer spots). Closer to the coast, highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s as an onshore wind develops. Mild/dry tonight with lows around 60s (mid to upper 50s Eastern Shore).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure builds SSE over New England on Friday, which will push a backdoor cold front south along the Eastern Shore/Chesapeake Bay. Meanwhile, our next area of low pressure takes shape and begins to approach from the W. As a result of the backdoor front, temperatures will vary widely from only the mid 60s to lower 70s (perhaps only around 60F/lower 60s Maryland Atlantic beaches) across the MD/VA Eastern Shore and locations along the Chesapeake Bay to the mid to upper 80s further inland.
High temperatures will ultimately depend on how far/how quick the front pushes inland with guidance still all over the place, but could certainly see highs trend cooler (especially east).
Otherwise, increasing cloud cover by Friday afternoon and evening with the system approaching from the west. Rain chances increase across western portions of the forecast area late Friday evening into Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night range from around 50F NE to around 60F SW.

On Saturday, the combination of the lingering backdoor boundary from Friday and the approaching system from the west will lead to a cool, cloudy, and unsettled day. Not expecting a washout on Saturday by any means, but scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms (especially across the western half of the area) will be possible. High temperatures will range from the 60s over across the NE to the mid to upper 70s further SSW. Rain chances increase further Saturday night, with likely PoPs overspreading the western half of the forecast area. Total QPF Saturday-Saturday night will range from ~0.25" to 0.75" along and west of I-95 and ~0.25" or less further east. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s for much of the area (50s across the VA/MD Eastern Shore).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

The front slowly moves/lingers across the are on Sunday leading to continued unsettled weather. Sunday will have the best chances for showers and storms areawide. Highs Sunday will generally be in the 70s. Increasingly warmer Monday and Tuesday, but there will be continued chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to a boundary lingering near or just north of the forecast area. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday.
Outside of the slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm (mainly north), drier conditions are anticipated for Wednesday.
Very warm, especially if we can stay rain free, as the ridge builds over the SE US. Highs may approach 90 degrees across inland portions of the area.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 630 AM Thursday...

Fog/IFR VSBYs currently being seen at ECG should diminish by 14z. PHF is seeing mainly patchy ground fog which is impacting the sensor versus the terminal. The remainder of the forecast period will feature mostly clear/sunny skies and VFR conditions.
Winds become SSW 5-10 knots this afternoon. Fog may try to develop again late in the period, especially at the fog-prone terminals (PHF, SBY, ECG).

Outlook: Primarily dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight through Friday, although some sub-VFR conditions are possible once again along the coast early Friday as another backdoor cold front slides through the area. There is chance for showers and a few tstms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday night through Sunday with the next front, with diminishing shower/tstm chances by Monday.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected today and tonight across all local waters

- Increased NE winds expected behind and cold front Friday evening into Saturday. SCAs possible in the lower Ches Bay/lower James.

High pressure has temporarily built in over the region, leading to light southerly winds of 5kt or less. Today, southerly winds gradually increase from N to S into the evening, but stay sub-SCA at 10-15kt. A backdoor cold front gradually drops across the region early Friday morning. Behind the front, winds turn to the NE and increase to 15-20kt in the Bay and coastal waters and 10-15kt in the rivers. Given the potential for gusts of 20-25kt in the lower bay, SCAs may be needed starting Friday afternoon. Breezy onshore winds continue through the weekend with winds becoming more southeasterly by Sunday. Winds diminish to 5-10kt and turn SSW for the early week period.

Latest buoy obs indicate seas around 2ft. Waves are 1ft or less. As winds increase behind the backdoor front tomorrow, seas will increase to 3-4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ092-093- 096-097.
MARINE...None.

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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Dixie
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dixie, Piankatank River, Virginia, Tide feet

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