Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday June 20, 2019 6:07 PM CDT (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 8:19AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 201930
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
330 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 255 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
cold front continues to push through the region this afternoon.

We've seen a scattered line of convection develop along the cold
front over the past hour or two, and these storms should gradually
move eastward along the front. By early evening, expect most of the
precipitation to be east of the i-75 corridor.

Skies should gradually clear from west to east overnight, and the
gusty winds we had during the afternoon should taper down. High
pressure will nudge in from the west after midnight, and we could
see a period of light to calm winds with clear skies during the
early morning hours. Given the wet ground conditions from recent
rains, patchy fog looks like a good bet for most of southern indiana
and central kentucky in the vicinity of the high, some of which may
be dense.

Any fog that develops should gradually burn off by sunrise Friday
morning. Much uncertainty remains in the forecast going beyond the
morning hours, as models take an MCS that develops over the plains
and swing it somewhere between eastern mo and eastern ky during the
afternoon and evening hours. Have included chance pops in the
forecast for the afternoon hours for all but the eastern 1 3 of the
cwa where the best model precipitation consensus is. Should our
region be in the path of this mcs, strong to severe storms would be
possible.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 325 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
Friday night - Sunday night...

an upper ridge axis will extend from the gulf of mexico up through
the mid mississippi river valley, with NW flow aloft over our
region. Models continue to indicate that an MCS will be ongoing
either upstream of our CWA or already impacting our CWA during this
time, however each one differs on timing placement. Given a
moderate strong NW SE instability gradient, and 25-35 knot 0-6 km
deep layer shear oriented in the same manner there will be potential
for organized wind producing storms. Will have to keep it general
until models come into better agreement, and will also have to note
the inversion evident on soundings that could limit convective
potential. Nevertheless, any organized cold pool upstream would
likely at least somewhat survive into our area and could produce
some impacts.

The upper ridge axis will slowly slide east over our area through
the weekend, but will be characterized as a "dirty" ridge as chances
for showers and storms will continue under a strongly unstable
airmass. SREF probs have very high probabilities of at least 3000
j kg of CAPE all through the weekend, with likely amounts over 4000
j kg at times. May have to deal with some capping at times given the
upper ridge, so triggering and weaker deep layer shear will be
limiting factors. Nevertheless, and storm that does develop will
likely carry a hail and isolated wind threat, in addition to heavy
rainfall and plenty of cg lightning.

Expect a muggy stretch with lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in
the mid to upper 80s.

Monday - Monday night...

the upper ridge axis will shift to the east by the start of the new
work week, however a strong shortwave will quickly approach. Given
better forcing and deeper moisture return in the SW flow ahead of
the shortwave, expect better coverage of showers and storms, along
with some stronger wind shear. A few organized storms may be
possible later Monday into Monday evening.

Tuesday - Thursday...

chances for a drier stretch of weather may arrive by mid to late
week as upper ridging over the southern CONUS strengthens and seems
to push the stronger westerlies up over the NE conus. As a result,
of the upper ridging and overall drier forecast look for highs to
creep up toward the upper 80s by the end of the week. Will still keep
some small chances for a shower or storm in the forecast, but
overall this should be a drier stretch.

Aviation (18z TAF issuance)
updated at 105 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
MVFR CIGS currently persist across much of the lower ohio valley
this afternoon. Upstream observations and short-term model guidance
suggests these CIGS will persist for another 2-3hrs before finally
lifting toVFR. Winds have been gusty out of the west and will
continue to remain that way through the duration of the afternoon.

Skies will gradually clear out tonight from west to east as high
pressure nudges in. There could be a small window of opportunity for
fog development during the early morning hours when winds become
light to calm in the vicinity of the surface high. Won't hit the fog
too hard in the tafs this far out, but given the setup, there is
potential for patchy dense fog. Any morning fog that develops should
gradually clear out after sunrise.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Dm
long term... Bjs
aviation... Dm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi72 minWNW 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F64%1009.3 hPa

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Last 24hrW3S8S6S6S6S6S5CalmS4S4SW6SW7SW8W11
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1 day agoNW4S9E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmSE5S5S5W6SW7S8S6SW9SE13
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2 days agoW4NW4CalmS11S7CalmCalmSE6S4SE4E3S6S7S8S11SW6S9SW4W6W6CalmSW44SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.