Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:59PM Saturday March 17, 2018 11:11 AM CDT (16:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 7:13PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 171402
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
1002 am edt Sat mar 17 2018

Forecast update
Issued at 1002 am edt Sat mar 17 2018
warm front recently analyzed across central kentucky between bowling
green and elizabethtown denoted by wind shift and dewpoint gradient.

Mid upper 50s dewpoints have surged into south-central kentucky
while colder, easterly flow, and mid upper 30s continue across
southern indiana and northern kentucky. Surface low analyzed across
southern illinois in the last hour will quickly track across
kentucky through this afternoon. Visible satellite showed mostly to
partly sunny skies south of the warm front.

Overall the forecast for this afternoon and early evening is on
track. Potential for scattered storms remains this afternoon across
east-central kentucky as the atmosphere destabilizes in the warm
sector as the hrrr still generates around 1000 j kg of SBCAPE and
the SPC href mean also shows an axis of 500 to 1000 j kg from around
bwg to south of lex. The best shear environment will weaken move
east of the area through the day, so there is a brief period window
where a few stronger storms may develop before moving into eastern
ky tn. That window of opportunity looks to be from around 4 to 7 pm

Highs today in the tight gradient remain tricky. Model guidance
still shows a wide variety depending on the warm front location.

Mostly continued the previous forecast with just minor adjustments
to the latest blended guidance.

Issued at 650 am edt Sat mar 17 2018
quick update for latest trends. Area of scattered to numerous
showers is weakening and pushing across our far eastern counties in
central ky at this time, and will continue eastward out of our area
over next hour or so. Dry weather prevails behind it for a few
hours. Surface warm front has nudged north passing by bwg, whose
temp has risen into the mid 50s quickly. Still expecting the front
to continue slowly north today before stalling somewhere just south
of louisville. Again, temps this afternoon are predicated on where
this boundary ends up and amount of Sun later today south of the
front. For now, no major changes to forecast temps, although did
nudge up values a tad over parts of south-central ky.

Latest short-range models hrrr still show some instability this
afternoon in central ky and scattered thunderstorms still expected
to develop along and especially east if i-65 with greatest coverage
over the bluegrass area south of lex.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 315 am edt Sat mar 17 2018
currently, mid-level low is located near the mo-ia border with a
surface low over central mo and a west-to-east oriented jet streak
from southern mo to western ky within a large dry slot aloft.

Forcing within the exit region of this jet streak along with a broad
area of modest elevated instability is resulting in a line of
showers and some thunderstorms over parts of south-central in and
along our western county warning area. NAM and hrrr show this
activity should maintain itself as it pushes across our forecast
area, with a few robust cells still possible over far south-central
ky near a surface a warm front which extends west-to-east just south
of bwg at this time. The strongest storms could produce small hail
and brief heavy rain.

This area of rain will move east during the morning and out of our
area. In its wake, it should be dry for several hours over central
ky and much of south-central in. The mid-level low is forecast to
slowly propagate ese into in this afternoon and slowly weaken as it
does. The surface low will do the same pushing into central ky this
afternoon. The warm front will drift northward to some degree today
but should stall as the surface low moves ese along it. Where the
front stalls will have a major effect on high temps this afternoon.

For now, it appears the front may reach a rough line from just south
of louisville to south of lexington. North of the front, low clouds
and cooler temps will occur while south of it, low clouds should mix
out at least somewhat with a warm SW wind. Afternoon readings should
top out in the lower and mid 70s over south-central ky but only the
mid 40s from about jefferson county in to the northern bluegrass,
north of lexington. There is potential for this MAX temp forecast to
bust higher or lower near this front depending on where it ends up
later today.

As for precip potential, models especially the hrrr destabilize the
atmosphere south of the warm front this afternoon, but overall
forcing weakens and moisture depth becomes limited. Nevertheless,
scattered convection is expected along and east of the surface low
track along and near the warm front, mainly over the eastern half of
central ky this afternoon before before moving east of the area this
evening. Scattered showers are possible north of the front.

For tonight, skies should remain mostly cloudy with low clouds,
although clearing should commence by Sunday morning from the N and
ne over our northern and northeastern counties. Expect lows in the
30s north and around 40 south.

On Sunday, brief ridging aloft moves into the oh valley as surface
high pressure drifts east to our north. Expect more sunshine north
and a mix of clouds and Sun south across central ky and southern in.

Afternoon highs should be in the 50s over much of the area.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 315 am edt Sat mar 17 2018
a rather active extended forecast is in store for much of the oh and
tn valleys for next week as several systems traverse from west-to-
east from the central u.S. In such a pattern, model variability is
inherent with some timing, location, and intensity differences
expected. Nevertheless, several rounds of precip are expected, with
everything from thunderstorms and heavy rain to some wet snow
possible during the period.

Models in reasonable agreement on Monday as the next system
approaches from the west. This system looks similar to the current
one, except a little farther south. A mid-level closed low will push
east from mo into the lower oh valley while a surface low tracks out
of ar into tn or southern ky. Models show that at least some
elevated instability will be present within the left exit region of
a strong jet streak aloft. Thus showers and thunderstorms are likely
Monday afternoon and evening. If the system ends up being a little
farther north, then surface-based instability will develop over at
least south-central ky with strong storms possible.

The most uncertainty occurs Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as
another complex but broad shortwave is expected to dig southeast
over the region right on the heals of the departing system Monday.

The strength of this system and amount of available moisture and
thermal profile are in question. Nevertheless, the GFS and gem
suggest that some rain could redevelop over at least the southern
and eastern half of central ky Tuesday afternoon, which could change
to some wet snow Tuesday night as the thermal profile cools. Our
blended grids reflect the GFS gem solution. Too early to tell if any
accumulation would occur if this scenario plays out as suggested. On
the other hand, the latest ECMWF is less enthusiastic about this
possibility. Lows Tuesday night should be in the upper 20s and lower
30s, with highs Wednesday only around 40 east, and mid 40s west,
quite chilly for the first day of spring on Wednesday.

The next system arrives around Saturday with a potential influx of
deep moisture and isentropic lift leading to potentially widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. Then yet another system could bring
additional rain Monday-ish. If all these systems bring rain and some
storms to our area over the next week, then will have to remain
aware of some potential water issues by the end of the period.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
issued at 650 am edt Sat mar 17 2018
a low pressure will push southeast along a warm front today bringing
showers and some t-storms to the TAF sites. Sdf lex stand the best
chance at some afternoon t-storms this afternoon early evening with
bwg hnb only seeing some vcsh this afternoon. Winds will be
variable with the warm front over the area. Bwg will be south of
the warm front and may see southwest winds gust to 18-20 kts today.

Winds and convection will decline this evening with MVFR conditions
continuing through much of the overnight period.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Twf zt
short term... Twf
long term... .Twf
aviation... Ams

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi16 minW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F57°F76%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE10E10E12E10E13SE12E12E11E14
1 day agoW14
2 days agoNW8NW7W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.