Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:41PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 7:37 AM CDT (12:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:22PMMoonset 6:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 251040
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
640 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 310 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and tonight...

Significant flash flood threat continues for today and tonight...

mostly cloudy skies were found across the region this morning.

Surface analysis revealed an effective warm front bisecting the
region. Boundary was evidenced by dewpoints well in to the lower
70s in the i-65 corridor and points west, with a decrease in
dewpoints out toward the i-75 corridor. Nocturnal low-level jet was
starting to develop and on the nose of this jet we've seen some
showers go up this morning. Latest hrrr runs seem to be capturing
this fairly. Over the next few hours, mid-level perturbation over s
mo will lift northward into southern il in. We expect to see a bit
more convection develop across north-central and east-central ky
over the next few hours. The area at most risk for convection would
be areas along and north of the wk and bg parkways. Short term
trends in temperatures support readings remaining in the upper 60s
to the lower 70s.

Moving into the daylight hours, we should see aforementioned band of
convection steadily move northward into southern in later this
morning, with somewhat of a drier period of weather from mid-late
morning. Could see some breaks in the cloudiness as we get further
into the warm sector. However, current thinking is that much of the
area will likely remain mostly cloudy. Temperatures this afternoon
have a shot of warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s in many
areas. Instability will increase this afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Overall severity of the
storms will be dependent on how much instability is available.

While there is a risk of severe weather this afternoon with gusty
winds and lightning being the main threats, heavy rainfall from the
storms is a very real concern. Antecedent soil conditions are just
saturated in many areas. Therefore any heavy rainfall will likely
result in flash flooding.

Tonight, the front to the northwest will move into the region. All
model guidance shows another line of convection accompanying this
front as it swings through. The front will be pushing through at
the nocturnal instability minimum, but any strong storm will be be
capable of producing damaging winds. Again, while severe focus is
there, the heavy rain aspect of this system will likely lead to
additional flash flooding tonight. Therefore, will keep the flash
flood watch going with this forecast. Overnight lows will range
from the lower 60s in our northwest areas to the lower 70s across
much of kentucky.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 255 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
by 12z Wednesday morning, the surface cold front is forecast to be
near a dayton to louisville to hopkinsville line. The new 25.00z run
of the GFS is quicker than most other models and thus, drier on
Wednesday. There's good consensus in holding on to
likely categorical pops Wednesday morning from the bluegrass region
down through the lake cumberland region. Pops drop to the chance
category along the i-65 corridor, with a dry forecast in southwest
indiana. Isolated storms may persist into Wednesday morning east of
i-65, along with localized heavy rainfall. But areal-average QPF is
an additional 0.10-0.25 inches of rain between 12-18z. However,
significant flooding may be ongoing Wednesday from heavy rains the
night before. Flooding or continuing rain showers may impact your
Wednesday morning commute.

The front sweeps through during the afternoon, with showers
lingering mainly closer to the i-75 corridor. Winds will become
breezy out of the northwest, and temperatures won't make it out of
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The primary upper trough over the great lakes quickly ejects
northeast Wednesday night as yet another wave moves over the
southern plains. This shortwave swings through the lower ohio valley
on Thursday, but the bulk of the moisture should be south of the tn
border. Still, a few showers could occur in the lake cumberland
region. Most places will see morning lows in the low to mid 50s
Thursday morning. A few low lying areas could even hit the upper 40s
in the northern bluegrass or southern indiana. Skies look partly
cloudy with highs Thu afternoon around 70.

Quiet weather will continue Thu night and Friday. Morning lows will
again be cool, down in the 50s. But with a bit more sun, afternoon
highs should be able to reach the mid 70s. A weak frontal boundary
is forecast to drop south toward the region this weekend, but it may
not have much moisture to work with. There's a low chance for
showers Friday night and Saturday. The better chance for widespread
rain will hold off until next Monday night and Tuesday. Highs this
weekend should end up in the 70s, pushing 80 in spots.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
issued at 640 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
nocturnal low level jet and isentropic lift will result in scattered
rain showers across the region this morning. Best widespread rain
chances would be over at klex during the first few hours of the taf
period and then we should see a bit of a break by mid-late morning.

However, during the afternoon hours we'll see convection refire.

Overall convective evolution is a bit uncertain and therefore will
keep vcts in the forecast at the terminals. Southwest winds will be
gusty today with speeds of 10-13kts and gusts of 20-25kts at times.

Cold front will approach the region tonight and a band of showers
and storms will likely accompany it as it comes through. The front
will likely clear khnb overnight but it will be Wednesday morning
before the front clears ksdf kbwg klex.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... Flash flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for inz078-079-084-

Ky... Flash flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for kyz023>043-

Short term... Mj
long term... .Ebw
aviation... ..Mj

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi41 minS 710.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1017 hPa

Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE5S7S9S8S8S11S10S10SW10S5S6S5SE7SE6S6SE8S8S11S9S8S8S7S8S7
1 day agoNE4NE6NE8NE5NE4E7NE6E6E8NE6E8E8E6E5E7E4E5E3E3CalmE5E7SE6E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.