Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:49 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KLMK 281652 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1252 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy weather continues, with gusts of 20-25 mph out of the southwest at times on today.

* Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
A few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible.

* Additional showers and thunderstorms possible late next week, though confidence in detailed timing remains low.

UPDATE
Issued at 954 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast remains on track this morning. Minor tweaks were made to the temperatures (adjusted slightly warmer) and sky cover based on the latest observations and trends... Otherwise, expect another warm and breezy day by late April standards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region. Temperatures were in the mid-upper 60s across much of the region. Other than some high thin clouds moving through, no significant weather is expected through sunrise.

For today, strong ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue while an active weather pattern continues off to our west. We'll see another breezy day today as the pressure gradient tightens up and we'll have a faster 850 hPa flow over the western half of the region. With afternoon mixing, we'll see winds in the 10-15 mph range with gusts of 20-25 mph at times. This will also probably lead to a dry air mixdown event where afternoon dewpoints decrease significantly. Afternoon highs will be in the 79-84 degree range.

For tonight, ridge axis will shift to the east as a slow moving cold front pushes toward the region from the west. A few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible over our far NW counties toward dawn Monday. Lows tonight will be in the 60-65 degree range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mature mid-latitude cyclone will wrap northeastward over the Upper Midwest on Monday, dragging a weakening cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley Monday evening and Monday night. Ahead of this boundary, Monday morning will likely start off dry for most. Weakening convection may attempt to push into the far western CWA around daybreak, but will likely not approach the I-65 corridor before dissipating. An upper level shortwave trough and the effective sfc boundary continue to progress eastward, and renewed convective development appears likely during the mid to late afternoon hours in portions of central KY and southern IN. We will see increased synoptic scale ascent along the frontal boundary, also beneath the right entrance region of a SW to NE oriented jet streak over the Great Lakes. Some modest destabilization should allow convection to strengthen Monday afternoon and evening, though overall destabilization will be limited by weak lapse rates aloft and possibly cloud cover. Deep-layer shear will also be marginal at around 30 kts. At the very least, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible.
The 28.00Z CSU machine learning severe weather forecasts for Mon/Mon night feature low (5-10% or less) probabilities for wind in relatively small portions of KY.

With the potential for a bit more early day sunshine, temperatures will top out in the low/mid 80s east of I-65 Monday afternoon. Highs of 75-80 F are expected west of I-65.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak Monday evening and overnight as convection evolves eastward across the region. Rain likely lingers into Tuesday morning, especially for the eastern half of the CWA Rainfall amounts of a half inch to around an inch will be possible through Tuesday, though some communities could see a bit more than an inch (depending on convective evolution). Tuesday afternoon and evening will feature a drying trend with temperatures topping out in the low/mid 70s in the Bluegrass and mid/upper 70s along and west of I-65.

Tuesday night into Thursday will feature amplifying ridging aloft over the Ohio Valley. Will lean toward a warmer and relatively dry solution in the forecast for this time frame, though forecast confidence drops off Thursday and beyond. Large model spread and run- to-run consistency issues remain for late next week and next weekend. Confidence is increasing in warm and dry conditions for midweek with highs in the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening, though rain chances have been lowered for Thursday. An overall slower trend for a storm system over the Plains could help keep active weather confined to the Plains and Midwest through the daytime period of Thursday, but confidence in detailed timing remains low.

A strengthening storm system over the central CONUS will eventually bring a period of showers and stormy weather to the Ohio Valley, and this is most likely around the Friday-Friday night time frame at this time. Rain chances do linger into the weekend, but the details will need time to come into focus.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions expected through most of the forecast period. Dry and breezy conditions will persist through the remainder of the daylight hours, though we should see the gusts subside after sunset with the nocturnal inversion setting in. Quiet overnight, though LLWS appear possible after midnight to just after dawn tomorrow as a 40-50kt 850mb LLJ creeps in from the west.

A weakening line of showers will approach the region tomorrow morning and could brush up against HNB after dawn. Not anticipating any impacts with these, but additional development of showers and storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon, just outside the TAF window for most sites, and these could result in sub-VFR cigs/vis for a time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Louisville, KY,