Thursday, June21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Fordsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday June 21, 2018 3:25 AM CDT (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 1:34AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fordsville, KY
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location: 37.58, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 210725
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
325 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 314 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
first round of widespread precipitation is already beginning to move
into the region this morning across southwestern ky, thanks to a
strong upper level low in the midwest that is tapping into
moisture from the gulf of mexico. For some perspective on how
unusually strong this upper level low is, GEFS normalized
anomalies are forecasting 500mb 700mb heights to be 2 to 3
standard deviations below normal (by mid to late june standards).

Precipitation will overspread the region as we continue through the
morning, with nearly everyone in the CWA seeing some rainfall by
early afternoon. Think flooding issues should be pretty limited
today, despite having high pwats in place and good forcing ahead of
the upper level low. Most models indicate the precipitation to be
more stratiform in nature vs convective... And model QPF through 00z
Friday is generally on the order of a quarter-inch to as much as an
inch, well below FFG criteria. Believe any flooding issues, if they
develop, will be localized and confined to training embedded

Rain should taper off early this afternoon starting in the west and
gradually ending eastward as drier air works in aloft. Low level
moisture won't be as quick to scour out, and a broken stratus deck
may hang around for most of the afternoon. High-res models indicate
a north-south line of strong to marginally severe storms developing
across central il through western ky by late afternoon, and pushing
eastward into our CWA by early evening. Some questions remain as to
how primed our atmosphere will be when the storms arrive, as storms
will be working against increasing surface CIN due to loss of
daytime heating. The best chance for storms and any potential severe
weather (gusty winds, small hail) in our CWA will generally be west
of i-65 between 6pm edt and midnight edt.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 255 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Unsettled weather Friday-Sunday...

Friday and Friday night...

on Friday morning, the anomalous upper low should be centered over
central il and drift east into central in by the end of the day.

Clouds and isolated to scattered showers may be ongoing Friday
morning across central ky and southern in. As the day wears on,
showers should increase in coverage south and east of the upper low
along and ahead of a subtle surface trough moving east into central
ky. The amount of destabilization is in question, as expected cloud
cover may keep instability and low-level lapse rates marginal (less
clouds means greater instability). Nevertheless, at least modest low-
level heating and cooler air aloft associated with the trough,
combined with forcing ahead of the trough will aid in development of
low-top convection as well. Some of the high-resolution models
actually develop a few robust cells Friday afternoon over parts of
central ky. Brief heavy rain would be the main hazard, but a few
stronger wind gusts could occur as well if low-level lapse rates
steepen enough. Expect high temperatures Friday afternoon around 80
or lower 80s. Scattered lighter showers may linger Friday night into
early Saturday as the low pushes slowly away to our north and east.

Saturday and Sunday...

as the upper low pulls away, the flow aloft will quickly flatten out
and become more zonal as the next shortwave upstream moves into the
mid ms valley Saturday night and into the lower oh valley on Sunday.

Models differ in whether there actually will be two shortwaves and
thus potentially two rounds of convection. Ahead of the first
shortwave, the air mass over the lower oh and tn valleys will
destabilize somewhat Saturday afternoon, especially south-central ky
where isolated thunderstorms are possible late in the day and
Saturday evening.

For Saturday night into Sunday, the forecast is a little more
challenging as nam, gfs, gem, and ECMWF all suggest additional, more
numerous convection could develop upstream and move into parts of tn
and ky. Convection would be supported by a forecasted 30 kt low-
level jet and even a hint of some isentropic lift. Again, the best
instability and convection should reside on the southern portion of
this area (e.G., south-central ky and tn).

Depending on what happens Saturday night Sunday morning will affect
any additional convective cells Sunday afternoon, i.E., where any
low-level boundaries may set up to provide forcing. For now,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later Sunday given
the presence of sufficient instability. Highs Sunday should range
through the 80s.

Monday thru Wednesday...

longer range models suggest that the upper ridge may build back
northward into the ohio valley during this period. In general, this
would result in a reduced chance for daily convection and warmer
daytime temperatures. However, cannot completely preclude an
isolated storm or two during one or more of the afternoons into
early evening. High temperatures should be in the mid to perhaps
upper 80s Monday, reaching around 90 by Wednesday. Models then
generally suggest that another shortwave may cross the great lakes
mid next week, which could cause isolated to scattered showers and
storms over parts of the ohio valley either late Wednesday and or
Thursday next week with highs on Thursday again around 90.

Aviation (06z TAF issuance)
issued at 121 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will move in from
the southwest this morning ahead of a strong upper level system.

MVFR to ifr CIGS vis will also accompany the precipitation this
morning, but will gradually improve toVFR from west to east as
drier air moves in. Should see a lull in precipitation this
afternoon, but another round of scattered thunderstorms will be
possible during the late afternoon to overnight hours.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Dm
long term... Twf
aviation... Dm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Owensboro, Owensboro-Daviess County Airport, KY27 mi29 minSW 1110.00 miLight Rain74°F71°F91%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from OWB (wind in knots)
1 day agoS4S6SW4W4W7W9W12W11
2 days agoS4SW3S4S4S7W7W7W4W7W5SW8SW10SW8SW10SW11SW8SW6SW4SW3CalmSW4SW3S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.