Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fordsville, KY
May 20, 2024 5:32 AM CDT (10:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 5:21 PM Moonset 3:46 AM |
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 200726 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 326 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry weather and above normal temperatures today and tomorrow.
* Unsettled weather late in the week, with highest confidence in showers and storms late Wednesday through Saturday.
* Severe storm potential remains uncertain, with somewhat higher confidence in the potential for localized flooding.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis...Mid-level ridge, extending from subtropical high over Mexico, will consolidate along the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours as a secondary positive height anomaly core forms over the Northeast US and Mid Atlantic. At the surface, broad surface high pressure will transition to the East Coast where some intensification will occur given rising heights aloft.
Today...As expected, it has been a dry and slightly warmer night across the forecast area. Surface and satellite observations do not show any indication of river valley fog at the moment, but it is still possible especially over the Cumberland and Bluegrass regions.
Otherwise, anticipate a scenic sunrise as high clouds stream in from the west with a fair-weather cumulus field developing by midmorning and through the afternoon as solid daytime heating gets underway.
Additionally, highs should warm up to the upper 80s this afternoon with urban areas probably hitting the 90 degree mark based on Sunday highs and the fact that weak south winds will slightly enhance WAA.
Tonight...Dry weather will continue tonight but forecast soundings start to show moistening of the vertical profile as low- to mid- level winds shift to the southwest in response to approaching trough and falling mid-level heights. Last but not least, a small and weak 700-mb vorticity wave will move across southern Indiana and north central KY in the pre-dawn hours with an increase in the cloud coverage but negligible precipitation chances.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Tuesday through Wednesday Night...
Upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure will hold sway across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s are expected with overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. By late Tuesday, the upper level ridge axis will slide off to the east while a upper trough axis slides in the from the west. Convection is likely to develop across the Midwest Tuesday evening and then work its way eastward into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning while in the process of decaying. Aforementioned cold frontal boundary will slowly push into the region during the afternoon and serve as a focus for renewed convective development. Model soundings show decent instability available, but the best synoptic scale forcing and shear will remain well to our north and to our west. While showers and storms look increasingly likely during the afternoon, a few storms could be strong/severe with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats, especially in areas north of the Ohio River. Storms will continue into the evening hours before weakening late. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.
Thursday through Sunday...
By Thursday, the upper level flow across the CONUS looks to deamplify slightly with a broad southwest flow regime setting up from the southern Plains into the northeast. Frontal boundary from Wednesday doesn't look likely it will want to move much as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Weak perturbations aloft are expected to move through within the mean flow resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms in the Thursday through Saturday period. The period will not be a total washout, but episodic bouts of convection are likely to move through the region during this time period. Some strong to severe storms will be possible as instability will be available, but shear is forecast to remain weak during the period. Most likely outcome will be clusters of storms moving through with heavy rainfall and gusty winds as the main threat. Repeated bouts of convection may result in some local hydrologic issues in spots that see repeated storms. The flow aloft looks to become slightly more zonal by Sunday which should allow the front to push on off to the east/southeast resulting in somewhat drier weather by Sunday.
Highs Thursday and Friday will a bit cooler than what we've seen recently with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the lower-mid 60s. Temps may warm up slightly for Sat/Sun with highs returning to the low-mid 80s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Discussion...VFR conditions will continue at all terminals during this TAF cycle. Surface high pressure over the region will host calm or light and variable winds throughout sunrise with a weak southerly component starting around 14Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 326 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry weather and above normal temperatures today and tomorrow.
* Unsettled weather late in the week, with highest confidence in showers and storms late Wednesday through Saturday.
* Severe storm potential remains uncertain, with somewhat higher confidence in the potential for localized flooding.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis...Mid-level ridge, extending from subtropical high over Mexico, will consolidate along the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours as a secondary positive height anomaly core forms over the Northeast US and Mid Atlantic. At the surface, broad surface high pressure will transition to the East Coast where some intensification will occur given rising heights aloft.
Today...As expected, it has been a dry and slightly warmer night across the forecast area. Surface and satellite observations do not show any indication of river valley fog at the moment, but it is still possible especially over the Cumberland and Bluegrass regions.
Otherwise, anticipate a scenic sunrise as high clouds stream in from the west with a fair-weather cumulus field developing by midmorning and through the afternoon as solid daytime heating gets underway.
Additionally, highs should warm up to the upper 80s this afternoon with urban areas probably hitting the 90 degree mark based on Sunday highs and the fact that weak south winds will slightly enhance WAA.
Tonight...Dry weather will continue tonight but forecast soundings start to show moistening of the vertical profile as low- to mid- level winds shift to the southwest in response to approaching trough and falling mid-level heights. Last but not least, a small and weak 700-mb vorticity wave will move across southern Indiana and north central KY in the pre-dawn hours with an increase in the cloud coverage but negligible precipitation chances.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Tuesday through Wednesday Night...
Upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure will hold sway across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s are expected with overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. By late Tuesday, the upper level ridge axis will slide off to the east while a upper trough axis slides in the from the west. Convection is likely to develop across the Midwest Tuesday evening and then work its way eastward into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning while in the process of decaying. Aforementioned cold frontal boundary will slowly push into the region during the afternoon and serve as a focus for renewed convective development. Model soundings show decent instability available, but the best synoptic scale forcing and shear will remain well to our north and to our west. While showers and storms look increasingly likely during the afternoon, a few storms could be strong/severe with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats, especially in areas north of the Ohio River. Storms will continue into the evening hours before weakening late. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.
Thursday through Sunday...
By Thursday, the upper level flow across the CONUS looks to deamplify slightly with a broad southwest flow regime setting up from the southern Plains into the northeast. Frontal boundary from Wednesday doesn't look likely it will want to move much as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Weak perturbations aloft are expected to move through within the mean flow resulting in additional waves of showers and thunderstorms in the Thursday through Saturday period. The period will not be a total washout, but episodic bouts of convection are likely to move through the region during this time period. Some strong to severe storms will be possible as instability will be available, but shear is forecast to remain weak during the period. Most likely outcome will be clusters of storms moving through with heavy rainfall and gusty winds as the main threat. Repeated bouts of convection may result in some local hydrologic issues in spots that see repeated storms. The flow aloft looks to become slightly more zonal by Sunday which should allow the front to push on off to the east/southeast resulting in somewhat drier weather by Sunday.
Highs Thursday and Friday will a bit cooler than what we've seen recently with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the lower-mid 60s. Temps may warm up slightly for Sat/Sun with highs returning to the low-mid 80s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Discussion...VFR conditions will continue at all terminals during this TAF cycle. Surface high pressure over the region will host calm or light and variable winds throughout sunrise with a weak southerly component starting around 14Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Louisville, KY,
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