Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for King William, VA
May 3, 2024 3:41 PM EDT (19:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM Moonset 1:59 PM |
ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 254 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Through 7 pm - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 254 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a backdoor cold front drops through the local waters today, and stalls over the carolinas tonight and Saturday. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.
a backdoor cold front drops through the local waters today, and stalls over the carolinas tonight and Saturday. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 031910 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 1030 AM EDT Friday...
Late morning sfc analysis shows high pressure remains SE of the area, along and offshore the Carolina coast. Aloft, a ridge axis is located just E of the area, extending into southern Quebec.
Well- advertised backdoor cold front has crossed into the FA, with easterly winds and cool/moist maritime air noted along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore. Already seeing a wide range in temps with 50s and 60s on the Eastern Shore and mid-upper 70s/around 80F further W. The backdoor front will continue its journey SW today, creating non- diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. Inland areas should be able to warm into the mid-upper 80s (possibly ~90) by this aftn, with falling temps as the front spreads further inland. Areas on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck will remain in the 50s and 60s.
Clouds will also increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the Piedmont this afternoon ahead of the advancing front (soundings show 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE w/ moisture pooling along the front), but CAMs generally indicate isolated coverage. Have slightly expanded the 20% PoP eastward towards RIC. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday
- Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday
The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday.
Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95.
The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages...
- Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday.
- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.
By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore.
We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday.
We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 215 PM Friday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through most of the 03/18z TAF period as a backdoor cold front pushes further inland.
As of 18z, IFR CIGs (bases ~800 ft) have moved into ORF and PHF. MVFR CIGs are noted at SBY, with VFR at RIC. Expect these IFR CIGs to persist along the coast through the period.
Elsewhere, expect SBY and ECG to drop to IFR CIGs over the next few hrs, with RIC holding off until this evening. CIGs may then drop further to LIFR for a time tonight (best chances at ORF and ECG). Additionally, there may be VSBY reductions below 3 SM due to BR or FG. This part of the forecast is more uncertain so have not gone lower than 3 SM in the TAFs at this time. In terms of precipitation, most stay dry this aftn (a very brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out at RIC), before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday.
Areas of drizzle are also possible. Winds have turned to the E behind the front at all TAF sites and E winds 10 should avg ~10 kt overnight into Saturday.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Advisories were expanded south to the NC/VA border and extended through this evening.
-Winds of 15 to 25 kt will persist this evening then diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but winds may increase some Saturday and additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by Saturday/Saturday night.
Winds increased abruptly as expected earlier today behind the backdoor cold front. Overall the NE winds have over-performed with some gusts of 25 to 30 kt at times over the ocean and lower Bay. SCA advisories are in effect for the Bay, lower James River and coastal waters from the NC/VA border north. Winds will persist into this evening, but should slowly decrease some by midnight. That said given the pattern and gradient winds will remain E-ENE at 15 kt gusts to 20 kt through the overnight.
Seas have increased to 4 to 6 ft from Cape Charles north and 3 to 4 near the NC/VA border. Given the easterly flow seas over the ocean and waves at the mouth of the Bay may be slow to decrease overnight.
Wind speeds increase again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE and this reflected by nearly all of the guidance. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
Have issues a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and approach minor flood levels later on Saturday. Tidal departures will increase overnight due to winds persisting onshore from the E or ENE. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 1030 AM EDT Friday...
Late morning sfc analysis shows high pressure remains SE of the area, along and offshore the Carolina coast. Aloft, a ridge axis is located just E of the area, extending into southern Quebec.
Well- advertised backdoor cold front has crossed into the FA, with easterly winds and cool/moist maritime air noted along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore. Already seeing a wide range in temps with 50s and 60s on the Eastern Shore and mid-upper 70s/around 80F further W. The backdoor front will continue its journey SW today, creating non- diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. Inland areas should be able to warm into the mid-upper 80s (possibly ~90) by this aftn, with falling temps as the front spreads further inland. Areas on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck will remain in the 50s and 60s.
Clouds will also increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the Piedmont this afternoon ahead of the advancing front (soundings show 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE w/ moisture pooling along the front), but CAMs generally indicate isolated coverage. Have slightly expanded the 20% PoP eastward towards RIC. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday
- Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday
The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday.
Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95.
The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages...
- Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday.
- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.
By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore.
We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday.
We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 215 PM Friday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected through most of the 03/18z TAF period as a backdoor cold front pushes further inland.
As of 18z, IFR CIGs (bases ~800 ft) have moved into ORF and PHF. MVFR CIGs are noted at SBY, with VFR at RIC. Expect these IFR CIGs to persist along the coast through the period.
Elsewhere, expect SBY and ECG to drop to IFR CIGs over the next few hrs, with RIC holding off until this evening. CIGs may then drop further to LIFR for a time tonight (best chances at ORF and ECG). Additionally, there may be VSBY reductions below 3 SM due to BR or FG. This part of the forecast is more uncertain so have not gone lower than 3 SM in the TAFs at this time. In terms of precipitation, most stay dry this aftn (a very brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out at RIC), before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday.
Areas of drizzle are also possible. Winds have turned to the E behind the front at all TAF sites and E winds 10 should avg ~10 kt overnight into Saturday.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Advisories were expanded south to the NC/VA border and extended through this evening.
-Winds of 15 to 25 kt will persist this evening then diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but winds may increase some Saturday and additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by Saturday/Saturday night.
Winds increased abruptly as expected earlier today behind the backdoor cold front. Overall the NE winds have over-performed with some gusts of 25 to 30 kt at times over the ocean and lower Bay. SCA advisories are in effect for the Bay, lower James River and coastal waters from the NC/VA border north. Winds will persist into this evening, but should slowly decrease some by midnight. That said given the pattern and gradient winds will remain E-ENE at 15 kt gusts to 20 kt through the overnight.
Seas have increased to 4 to 6 ft from Cape Charles north and 3 to 4 near the NC/VA border. Given the easterly flow seas over the ocean and waves at the mouth of the Bay may be slow to decrease overnight.
Wind speeds increase again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE and this reflected by nearly all of the guidance. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
Have issues a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and approach minor flood levels later on Saturday. Tidal departures will increase overnight due to winds persisting onshore from the E or ENE. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 26 mi | 71 min | SE 2.9 | 70°F | 30.06 | 60°F | ||
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 33 mi | 41 min | E 14G | 61°F | 71°F | |||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 43 mi | 53 min | ESE 19G | 61°F | 69°F | 30.11 | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 43 mi | 53 min | ENE 19G | 60°F | 67°F | 30.10 | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 46 mi | 41 min | E 18G | 57°F | 66°F | 2 ft | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 47 mi | 53 min | SSE 19G | |||||
| NCDV2 | 49 mi | 53 min | ESE 19G | 66°F | 72°F | 30.05 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRIC RICHMOND INTL,VA | 13 sm | 47 min | E 16G22 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 64°F | 55% | 30.01 | |
| KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA | 18 sm | 47 min | E 08 | 9 sm | Clear | 84°F | 68°F | 58% | 30.02 | |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 20 sm | 26 min | E 12G18 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 66°F | 57°F | 73% | 30.08 | |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 21 sm | 26 min | E 15G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 70°F | 57°F | 64% | 30.09 |
Northbury
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:26 AM EDT 3.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:02 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:26 AM EDT 3.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 06:02 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Northbury, Pamunkey River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 2.4 |
| 10 am |
| 3.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.4 |
White House
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:38 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:37 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:11 PM EDT 3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:38 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:37 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:11 PM EDT 3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
White House, Pamunkey River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.7 |
| 10 am |
| 3.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.3 |
Wakefield, VA,
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