Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King William, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 637 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Intermittent rain or drizzle early in the morning.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely early in the evening...then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms early in the evening...then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 637 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary along the north carolina - virginia border today, then lifts back north over the waters as a warm front tonight. A cold front pushes offshore Thursday. High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King William, VA
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location: 37.62, -77.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 241026
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
626 am edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure prevails over the area today. Unsettled
conditions return this evening through Thursday as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. Conditions improve on
Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A shortwave trough exits to the east this morning and will take
with it the last widespread batch of light rain drizzle
currently seen on the radar across eastern locales. Some
semblance of shortwave ridging develops over the mid-atlantic
today due to the combination of the departing shortwave and a
strong upper low digging across the mid-ms valley. Therefore,
after the current pcpn exits, will drop pops below 20% for most
areas into the afternoon. Low clouds will struggle to erode
despite some mid-level drying as the surface pressure gradient
will be rather nebulous resulting in weak low-level flow. The
best chc for any partial clearing will be across the md ern
shore. High temperatures will remain below average today given
the onshore flow, ranging through the mid upr 60s to low 70s,
except mid upr 70s across NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
The upper low digs into the tennessee valley with yet another
shortwave trough lifting nne across the carolinas and mid-
atlantic this evening through the early overnight hours. A
secondary wave lifts nne across the blue ridge late this evening
through the overnight hours. Pops quickly ramp up to categorical
across the SW piedmont NE nc early Wednesday evening and
spreading NE into central SE va late evening through the early
overnight hours, before shifting to the ERN shore after
midnight. Mid-level drying and subsidence will result in pops
quickly diminishing from sw-ne late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. There will be a chc of strong to severe
thunderstorms mainly along south of the va-460 corridor tonight
as 500mb flow strengthens to 40-50kt across far southern va and
ne nc and the presence of a surface warm front will result in a
veering low-level wind field. SPC has upgraded our far southern
counties into a slight risk where locally damaging winds and an
isolated tornado may be possible if enough instability
develops. Additional QPF tonight averages 0.30-0.60".

The upper low finally begins to lift NE across the mountains
Thursday. A strong shortwave trough will lift across the mid-
atlantic during the afternoon early evening. Once again pops
increase, to ~60-70% from the piedmont to central va to the md
ern shore, with 40-50% far se. 500mb flow of 45-55kt is
expected along with modest instability. Therefore, a few
stronger to marginally severe storms are possible. The main
threat would be wind and hail as low-level shear is minimal but
a decent cold pool aloft will exist. Additional QPF Thursday
aftn evening should average ~0.25" with locally higher amounts.

High temperatures range from the mid 70s to around 80 after
morning lows ranging through the 60s.

The upper low continues to lift NE across pa ny new england
late Thursday night into Friday. Drier conditions finally arrive
as deep layered wnw flow develops over the region. Some
lingering mid-level energy could result in some sct-bkn cu
Friday aftn. Otherwise, drier and breezy with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s, after morning lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast Saturday as an
upper level low tracks into the great lakes region. Weak area of
surface high pressure slides off the mid-atlantic coast
Saturday as a warm front lifts through the region. Weak
perturbations in fast westerly flow aloft will result in low end
chance pops Saturday afternoon for showers and thunderstorms.

Otherwise, warming trend continues with highs in the low to mid
80's. The warm front locates stalls over the northern mid-
atlantic region Saturday night, resulting in continued chances
for showers thunderstorms over the northern local area as
perturbations in the westerly flow track across the region. The
upper low slowly pushes across the great lakes region Sunday
with an associated cold front progged to reach the central
appalachians late Sunday. Pressure falls ahead of the
approaching front will induce a lee side thermal trough over the
region and better chances for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday generally in the mid 80's. The cold
front reaches the local area Monday, but is expected to stall
over the region as subtropical high pressure strengthens off the
southeast coast. The weak front remains over the eastern local
area through Tuesday, with chances for diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid
80's.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Light rain drizzle will exit east thru 13z with relatively dry
conditions on tap for much of the rest of today. Unfortunately,
cigs will improve very little if any through the day. Winds will
be from the northeast and east this morning then veer to the
southeast this afternoon at 10 knots or less.

Outlook... Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and again
late Thursday. Aviation conditions will likely be impacted
through Thursday night. Dry weather returns Friday as weak high
pressure builds over the region. Unsettled conditions return for
the weekend when another frontal boundary affects the mid
atlantic states.

Marine
Latest msas showing frontal boundary nearly stnry just south of the
va nc line. Weak low pressure that moved along this boundary last
evening now offshore. Still a challenging marine forecast given
model projections versus the actual obs. Thus, will be making some
adjustments to SCA headlines which will be based off of current obs.

Ne winds still gusting in places to around 20 kts so plan is cont
the SCA headlines through 7 10 am across the ches bay and adjacent
coastal waters through the day for 4-5 foot seas. Seas expected to
drop below 5 ft all areas by evening. Interesting to note the 180
degree change in wind direction due to the frontal position over
anz656 (ne at CAPE henry SW at ches light).

The next in a series of low pressure systems lifts into the ohio
valley tonight with a meso-low lifting along the appalachians. Data
suggests marginal SCA conditions possible tonight for a several hour
period with this feature. Given medium confidence in a widespread
sca event and not wanting double headlines for separate events, will
hold off on any second third period headlines for now.

Sw flow increases Thursday as the low lifts north of the region,
with speeds of 10-20 knots expected. Yet another marginal SCA event
is possible Thursday night as the low tracks off the NE coast.

Tides coastal flooding
A period of onshore flow and higher astro tides (moving toward a
new moon) will result in elevated water levels through Friday.

Several tidal sites reached action stage during last nights high
tide cycle. Todays high tide cycle is forecasted to be the lower
of the upcoming 2 cycles with some sites reaching action stage.

However, tonights high tide cycle is a different story. Many sites
are forecasted to approach if not reach minor flooding levels.

Forecasted levels at both ocean city, md and jamestown, va are
high enough to warrent an advisory attm. However, confidence at
other sites along the bay and coastal waters is not high enough
for an advisory at this time so elected to hold off and let day
shift evaluate the need for either a statement or advisory.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm to 10 pm edt this evening for
mdz024-025.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Thursday for vaz089-090-093.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz634.

Flood watch from 10 am this morning to 1 pm edt this afternoon
for anz670-672-674-676-678.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz656-
658.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for anz650.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Sam
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mpr
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi54 min NNE 2.9 60°F 1007 hPa58°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 34 mi44 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 60°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 43 mi54 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 68°F1005.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 43 mi54 min NE 6 G 8 60°F 66°F1006.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi44 min ENE 14 G 16 61°F 1005.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi54 min NE 5.1 G 6
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 48 mi54 min NE 12 G 13 61°F 1005.3 hPa
NCDV2 49 mi54 min NNE 1 G 1.9 58°F 68°F1005.9 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA13 mi30 minENE 410.00 miOvercast60°F57°F93%1006.7 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA17 mi30 minVar 310.00 miOvercast60°F55°F86%1006.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA20 mi29 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1006.4 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA20 mi29 minENE 410.00 miOvercast61°F59°F96%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E10NE7NE6E9E6NE9NE8NE6NE7NE8NE7E12N8NE8NE6NE8NE8N7N6NE8NE6NE7E4
1 day agoN4CalmNE4N5N4E3NE3N4CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmNE3CalmN8N9NE7NE6E6
2 days agoE7E4E6
G15
SE7SE6SE8SE5SE7SE8SE8E10E7E5E4E4E5E3CalmCalmN5N3NE3N3N6

Tide / Current Tables for Northbury, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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Northbury
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Wed -- 02:00 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:44 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:28 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.244.34.13.42.41.40.4-0.2-0.30.212.13.13.63.63.12.31.30.4-0.2-0.40.11

Tide / Current Tables for White House, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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White House
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:09 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:39 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.93.73.12.31.40.5-0.1-0.30.10.81.82.63.23.32.92.21.30.4-0.2-0.4-0.10.81.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.