Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King William, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 10:43 AM EST (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 942 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon est today...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Widespread fog. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers through the day.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ600 942 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A frontal boundary weakens and lifts north through the area today. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast through Wednesday, bringing a return to well above normal temperatures. A backdoor cold front drops into the mid atlantic region through the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King William, VA
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location: 37.62, -77.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201506
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1006 am est Tue feb 20 2018

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. High
pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast this evening
through Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal
temperatures. A backdoor cold front moves into the mid atlantic
region through the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Despite slowly improving vsbys in some areas, still seeing
several areas AOB 1 2sm so went ahead and extended the dense fog
advsry thru noon expecting improving vsbys in all areas by then.

Also added slght chc shwrs across sern va nern nc based of the
high res data of taking the sct shwrs across the carolina
coastal plain NE over the next svrl hrs. Otw, skies should
become pt sunny as the day wears on. Spring-like with highs in
the low-mid 70s except remaining in the 60s at the beaches.

Went ahead and added hampton roads western tidewater areas to
dense fog advisory. Last few successive runs of hrrr and narre
showing solid probabilities for low visibilities to linger
through mid to late morning.

Previous discussion...

surface analysis reveals surface warm front along the
chesapeake bay, extending ssw into NE nc and into the central
and western carolinas. Widespread fog has developed along and
ahead of the boundary, as moisture pools ahead of the front.

Have extended dense fog advisory east to include much of the sw
tier of the area, from akq south to bertie county, nc... And the
us-58 corridor from south hill to franklin, va. Will go with an
sps with more patchy lower vsby farther north into ric metro and
hampton roads... With hi-res cams indicating that a further
extension north with dense fog advy is possible before 5-6 am.

Clouds will be slow to scour out today, with models indicating
that we don't really break out until early to mid-aftn. Slower
timing has resulted in taking temps down a few degrees. Still a
warm day nonetheless. Summer-like pattern setting up with strong
high in the western atlantic will allow thicknesses to jump
appreciably today. After a slow start, look for temps to quickly
climb into the 70s this aftn except in the 60s along the eastern
shore and at the beaches.

Stratus and patchy fog re-occurs tonight, with additional
locally dense fog a possibility. Mild tues night with lows in
the 50s to around 60.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
Warmest day of the week comes wed, where record highs will
likely fall across the region. Once again, concern for temps
getting off to a slow start with fog lingering into the mid-
morning hours, but with the warm start, won't take long to reach
expected highs 75-80, except 60s at the beaches.

A backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night and
progged to be near the northern akq zones by 12z thu. Moisture
increases along and ahead of this feature but is a bit slower than
previous models had, and will continue to side toward the slower
ecmwf depiction for the period. Will carry low chc pops across
the NRN half of the fa late Wed night. Lows 50-55 north. 55-60
south.

The front is slow to move south and is progged to only get to
central virginia by 00z fri. Cooler with chc to likely pops
across the north, warmer with low chc pops across the south.

Temps tricky and will all depend on the frontal position. Highs
mid-upr 50s lwr md eastern shore... 60s over most of the area
with 70s across nc.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Expect more chcs for rain showers in the extended period,
although above normal temps will prevail acrs the area. Frontal
boundary just south of the area Thu night, will gradually lift
back north as a warm front later Fri into Fri night, providing a
20-40% chc of showers. That boundary will be just north of the
cwa during sat, as a cold front starts to push into the oh tn
valley. Will have slgt chc to chc pops, mainly NRN and wrn
counties. Chcs for showers will then increase fm the NW sat
night into sun, as the cold front approaches and pushes into the
region. Expecting mainly dry wx Sun night and mon, as the front
pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into and over the
area.

Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s fri, mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s Sat and sun, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s mon.

Lows will range thru the 40s to near 50 Thu night, in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid
40s to lower 50s Sun night.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Poor aviation conditions with lifr ifr this morning, with only
slow improvement expected through the morning. A warm front
will lift north of the region this morning, and while the upr
levels dry out a bit quicker, the lwr levels will be slow to
scour out. Thus, CIGS will be slow to rise into MVFR range by or
shortly after 15-18z, withVFR conditions not expected to
return until mid to late afternoon into the early evening. Fog
looks to re-occur tonight into early Wed morning.

Outlook... A back door cold front approaches from the NW wed
night then drops south across the area on thu. Expect a return
to ifr MVFR conditions in rain fog Thu Fri behind this feature.

Marine
No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A stationary
frontal bndry is located over the area this morning, allowing for
light winds and marine dense fog to develop. Attm, the dense fog
advsry continues over all wtrs through mid morning. The front should
gradually dissipate or slide north as a warm front later today,
allowing for southerly flow to increase to ~10-15 kt this evening
into tonight. 1-2 ft waves over the bay with 2-3 ft seas over
coastal wtrs. Sfc high pressure will remain anchored offshore into
wed, with continued south flow over the local wtrs. With winds
remaining below SCA criteria and dewpoints in the 50s, marine fog is
expected at times through the period.

Back door cold front then drops into the region during thu, turning
winds to the N NE (10-15 kt most areas) into fri. The front then
lifts back north as a warm front later fri, and will move north of
the region Fri night. Waves seas will increase Thu into fri.

Climate
Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged tue
2 20 and Wed 2 21:
* record highs:
* date: Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
ric: 77 (1930) 75 (1930)
orf: 77 (1991) 79 (2014)
sby: 75 (1930) 75 (1943)
ecg: 78 (1991) 77 (2014)
* record high mins for 2 21.

Ric: 54 (1953)
orf: 58 (1953)
sby: 51 (1953)
ecg: 61 (1939)

Equipment
Kakq radar will be down until further notice with an antenna
pedestal issue. See ftmakq for more details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Dense fog advisory until noon est today for ncz012>016-030>032.

Va... Dense fog advisory until noon est today for vaz065-066-079-
087>090-092-093-095>097-100-523>525.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon est today for anz630>638-650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mpr mam
short term... Mpr mam
long term... Tmg
aviation... Mam
marine... Mas
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi73 min S 1 58°F 1033 hPa56°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 43 mi43 min WSW 11 G 16 58°F 44°F1030.7 hPa (+0.6)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 43 mi43 min W 5.1 G 6 56°F 45°F1031.9 hPa (+1.5)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi33 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 1033.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi43 min WSW 7 G 8.9
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 48 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 52°F 1032.8 hPa (+1.6)
NCDV2 49 mi43 min SW 11 G 17 61°F 44°F1028.8 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA13 mi49 minSSW 61.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F96%1031.8 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA17 mi49 minSSW 66.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1031.3 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA20 mi48 minSSW 63.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F98%1031.5 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA20 mi48 minN 07.00 miOvercast57°F55°F94%1032.5 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmS3SW5CalmSE6S6S7S5S5S4CalmS3S4S4S7S7SW7S5S6S5S3S5S5
1 day agoN5NE6NE9N3NE3NW3SE5SE3E4E10SE9SE4CalmE3SE5SE7SE4SE3E3CalmN3NW3E4SE3
2 days ago--E10SE7SE7SE9SE6NE63----CalmS4CalmSW5SW5SW5W7SW5W4W3NE4NE3NE6NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Northbury, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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Northbury
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:38 AM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:10 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:58 PM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.211.92.83.33.432.41.60.80.2-00.10.71.62.43.13.33.12.51.70.90.3

Tide / Current Tables for White House, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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White House
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:46 AM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.71.62.433.12.82.31.60.80.3-000.51.222.62.92.82.31.70.90.3-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.