Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King William, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:52PM Monday December 11, 2017 5:36 PM EST (22:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 1:20PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 323 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft late.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt early in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 323 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will slide off the coast tonight. A strong cold front will cross the waters by late Tuesday, with markedly colder temperatures surging into the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King William, VA
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location: 37.62, -77.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 112052
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
352 pm est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system will move east from the great lakes
region tonight into the northeast states Tuesday. This low will
drag a strong cold front through the mid atlantic by late
Tuesday. Expect markedly colder temperatures across the region
then for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Latest sfc analysis shows ~1024 mb high pressure centered over
the gom with ~1004 mb low pressure over the midwest. Aloft, a
potent mid-level shortwave trough is diving down towards the
base of the longwave trough. Dry weather expected tonight with
just some increasing clouds late ahead of the approaching
system. With light southerly flow and some cloud cover, temps
will be a bit higher than those of last night... Lows ranging
through the 30s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Short term period will feature below normal temps on avg with a
couple small chances for pcpn. For tue... Aforementioned strong
cold front will cross the area late in the day. Wnw winds will
gust up to 20-30 mph. Despite decent forcing, moisture will be
lacking and thus have limited any chance for pcpn (plain rain)
in the aftn to the lwr eastern shore where 20-30% pops are
carried. Any amounts will be very light. High temps in the upr
40s to mid 50s. Dry and cold then for Tue night with lows in
the upr teens to low 20s most areas. This combined with
continued gusty winds will lead to wind chill values in the
upr single digits to teens... Lowest over northern areas.

Dry into Wed as well as weak sfc high pres slides south of the
area. Expect wind chill values in the 20s even during the
middle of the day with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph and high
temps only in the mid 30s most spots... 15-20 degrees below
normal.

Next chance of pcpn arrives Wed night with an approaching
clipper system. Have introduced a 20% of snow showers
everywhere... And may have to do potentially increase pops in
future updates. Any snow should end by Thu morning, with a dry
day then for thu. Temps moderate then into Thu with highs in
the 40s under a partly cloudy sky.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Clipper system approaches from the wnw Thu night... Then crosses
the local area Fri as weak sfc lo pres passes just S and e.

12z 11 GFS and ECMWF both suggest there is a potential for
wintry pcpn on Fri (esp N and NW sections)... Maintaining cold
air across the region. During the weekend... Upper level flow
relaxes allowing for moderation into next week.

Lows Thu night from the m20s NW to the m30s at the coast in se
va-ne nc. Highs Fri from the m30s NW to around 50f in far se
va-ne nc. Lows Fri night from the m-u20s inland to 30-35f at the
immediate coast. Highs Sat in the l-m40s. Lows Sat night in the
l-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s. Lows Sun night in the 30s to
l40s. Highs Mon in the l-m50s.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions expected through the 18z TAF period and beyond.

Skc for today with light S SW winds. Some increasing clouds
tonight into Tue ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and
associated strong sfc cold front. Mainly just some sct-bkn mid
clouds with this. SW winds shift to W then NW as the front
slides through the area tue, with gusts up to 20-30 kt at times
tue aftn. ExpectVFR conditions to prevail for much of the week
ahead.

Marine
A complex marine forecast expected over the next 2-3 days as a
strong and prolonged CAA surge progged behind an arctic cold front
tues night into wed. Ahead of all this is a "lull" in sfc winds this
evening as high pressure slides across the region. The return ssw
flow progged to quickly increase later tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. The different
sca criteria for the bay vs the ocean results in different starting
times across the marine area.

Thus, will start SCA headlines for the ches bay later tonight and
continue thru 00z Wed as the gradient tightens. Winds across the
currituck sound and local rivers don't get to SCA levels until tue.

Cold frontal passage by 00z wed. Strong CAA surge noted on all
models with most of the guidance showing gusts in the 35-40 kt range
across the coastal waters mouth of the bay with 35 kt over the
rest of the ches bay. Thus, think confidence high enough to go with
a gale warning for these areas starting at 00z Wed and continuing
through 21z wed. Left strong sca's for the rivers and sound for now.

A weaker system progged to cross the region later in the week.

Winds seas subside by Thursday under SCA levels.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 4 pm est Wednesday
for anz633-635>638.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for
anz630>632-634.

Gale warning from 7 pm Tuesday to 4 pm est Wednesday for
anz630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mas
short term... Mas
long term... Alb
aviation... Mas
marine... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi66 min SE 1.9 45°F 1018 hPa32°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 33 mi36 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 48°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 43 mi48 min SSE 5.1 G 7 45°F 50°F1016.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 43 mi48 min SSE 6 G 8 43°F 45°F1016.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi36 min S 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 48°F1 ft1016.7 hPa (-0.6)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi48 min SSE 13 G 14
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 48 mi48 min SSE 8 G 9.9 45°F 1017.3 hPa
NCDV2 49 mi48 min ESE 12 G 14 46°F 46°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA13 mi42 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds44°F28°F55%1016 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA17 mi42 minVar 410.00 miFair45°F28°F52%1015.7 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA20 mi41 minSE 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S6S7S8S8S7S8SW5SW5SW5W6W8W7W7W7W11W8--S3S8S8S6SE5
1 day agoNW4CalmNW4W4W5SW5SW5SW8SW8SW5SW4W5W7W7W8W8W6W9W10W10SW11W8SW8SW7
2 days agoCalmN4NE5N4N4N10N7N6NE4NE7NE5N6N8N8N8N8N10N10N9N6N8N8NW6NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Northbury, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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Northbury
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:28 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:31 AM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:20 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:59 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:50 PM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.90.3-0.1-0.10.41.222.83.23.22.92.31.50.80.30.10.40.91.72.533.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for White House, Pamunkey River, Virginia
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White House
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:36 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:07 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.4-0-00.311.82.52.932.72.21.50.90.40.20.30.81.52.12.62.82.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.