Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 12:05 AM   Moonset 9:11 AM

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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1012 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of today - W winds 5 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed - W winds 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers. Wed night - NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Thu night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Fri - SE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ600 1012 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure anchors off the southeast coast through Tuesday. A weak cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 291411 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1011 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast through midweek with a ridge remaining overhead through the week. Well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend, as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1010 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Near record high temperatures today.

Late this morning, sfc high pressure was centered off the SE coast. Under a sunny sky, temps were ranging through the 70s.
A strong upper level ridge was in place from the Florida coast nwrd into PA. Dry and hot this aftn with SW or W winds 5-10 mph N and 10-15 mph S. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90. Record highs today are generally in the 90s apart from 89 at SBY (see climate section below for more information). As such, most areas will be a few degrees shy of records except SBY, which may reach or exceed the daily record high. Mostly clear and mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Tuesday.

-Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday with a cold front passage.

Aloft, a ridge weakens Tue and Wed as a shortwave moves through. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure moves E through the Mid Atlantic and off the coast Tue into early Wed with high pressure building in behind it. This pushes a weak cold front through the area late Tue night into Wed. A few isolated showers/storms are possible across the Piedmont Tue afternoon/evening with the shortwave. Temps will once again be well above normal on Tue with highs in the upper 80s for most. SBY may once again reach or exceed the daily record high (see climate section below for more information).

PoPs increase Wed morning into Wed afternoon as scattered showers/storms develop along and behind the cold front moving through the area. PoPs have trended higher (35-55%) with the best chance for rain across SE VA/NE NC where around ~0.25" of rain is possible. The rain ends by Wed evening with dry weather expected Wed night. Highs Wed will be largely dependent upon timing of the front/rain with a faster FROPA allowing for warmer temps in interior portions of the FA. For now, have highs mainly in the lower 80s inland (locally mid 80s) and upper 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures inland continue through the weekend.

-Trending cooler along the coast with onshore flow.

-Scattered showers/storms are possible Saturday and Sunday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with above normal temps expected inland. At the sfc, high pressure builds E of the area Thu into Fri with onshore flow everywhere Thu and along the coast Fri. This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland. Highs in the mid 80s W to the upper 60s to near 70F E Thu and mid 80s W to mid 70s E Fri (coolest along the Atlantic beaches of the Eastern Shore). Additionally, with high pressure overhead, dry weather is expected both days apart from a low chance for an isolated shower/storm across the Piedmont Fri evening/night.

A cold front approaches from the W Sat into Sun, slowing/stalling once it reaches the local area. As such, the weekend looks unsettled with scattered showers/storms possible both Sat and Sun (45-50% PoPs Sat and 35-40% PoPs Sun). Shower/storm chances continue even into Mon with 25-35% PoPs. Given widespread cloud cover and scattered convection, highs will be cooler (but still mild) this weekend.
Highs in the 70s NE to lower 80s for most Sat, mid 70s NE to around 80F SW Sun, and mid-upper 70s NE to the lower 80s SW Mon. Lows remain in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period with mainly clear skies outside of some cirrus this morning and a few fair weather CU this afternoon. Clouds clear this evening with some cirrus moving back in from the W late tonight. SW winds 5-10 kt (slightly higher near the coast) early this morning increase to ~10 kt later this morning with a few 15-20 kt gusts expected across SE terminals from late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from tonight through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher (~30%)
chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on Wednesday at all of the terminals. Very brief flight restrictions are likely in any tstm. Dry Thu-Fri.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the forecast period.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered off of the Carolinas.
Winds are generally out of the SW and running around 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet out 20 nm), and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at the mouth). High pressure will remain centered close to its current location through today before gradually sliding further off the southeast US coast on Tuesday. Winds will continue to average around 5 to 15 knots out of the SW today through tonight. A cold front approaches the waters later Tuesday, crossing the waters Wednesday morning. S to SW winds will increase slightly ahead of the front (~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters)
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, but are expected to remain sub-SCA. Seas increase due to the stronger S winds, with seas approaching 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape Charles Light. Winds shift to the W and then NNW behind the front Wednesday morning and seas will quickly diminish. Generally light onshore flow is then expected later Wednesday into Friday. Another front potentially approaches the waters late week into this weekend.

CLIMATE
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

4/29 4/30 RIC 94/1974 93/1974 ORF 92/1974 93/1988 SBY 89/1974 86/2017 ECG 90/1974 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Northbury
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Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
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Northbury, Pamunkey River, Virginia, Tide feet

White House
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Mon -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:18 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
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White House, Pamunkey River, Virginia, Tide feet

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