Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union, WV
May 7, 2024 11:42 AM EDT (15:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:47 AM Moonset 7:10 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 071440 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1040 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Thursday. Cooler and drier weather returns by the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1040 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Potential thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
Most of the remaining few morning showers have moved out of the area at this time. Ample cloud cover persists along and west of the Blue Ridge, while some larger breaks in the clouds are present over the Foothills and Piedmont. Expecting a decreasing trend in cloud cover for the next few hours, before coming back in with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Morning sounding at RNK showed west to northwesterly winds near the surface and aloft, so confidence is still lower on storm coverage at this time, with westerly flow limiting storm potential. No changes made to the forecast for this morning update, aside from blending in current observations.
Previous discussion below...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...
Upper wave responsible for the rain/storms yesterday will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and weak ridging builds overhead. Will see an increase in westerly winds behind the departing wave. Still a bit of uncertainty on storm coverage today with the upper ridging and westerly flow that will be in place, which tends to suppress storm development. HRRR, NAM, and multiple renditions of the WRF all indicate very spotty coverage today as well. With this is mind, kept the PoPs highest over the western mountains really decreased chances east of the mountains. May have late development as the westerly wind relaxes late this evening, but will begin to lose instability by that point as we lose daytime heating. However, any storm that is able to develop will have the potential for damaging winds, especially with modeled DCAPE over 1000 J/kg by the mid- afternoon.
Expecting any convection to quickly diminish after sunset and may have areas of fog develop again tonight. Low a bit warmer in the mid to low 60s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing flash flood threat - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms
Mid-level troughing deepens on Wednesday ahead of a frontal passage on Thursday. Both days will feature showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. Due to the antecedent conditions and multiple consecutive days of convective showers and storms, the threat for flash flooding will increase through the week. High rainfall rates are possible within any storms that form due to the above normal PWATs. There is potential for thunderstorms to exhibit severe characteristics, especially during the peak heating periods of each afternoon. Greatest threats will be damaging winds or large hail.
An embedded shortwave rotating through a broader trough will continue the pattern of thunderstorms and rainshowers on Friday as well. Temperatures will be around normal or just below thanks to cloud cover, the cooling effects of showers and storms, and frontal passage on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures cool off - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues
Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 mb heights. No particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now, enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday dry.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...
Still a few areas of patchy fog this morning, but lingering cloud cover has prevented more widespread fog.
Any fog remaining will likely erode by 13z. Ceilings will be variable through the next couple of hours, but improve to VFR for much of the area by later this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon, with the best coverage over the mountains. Therefore, have introduced a period of thunder for BCB/BLF/LWB for a few hours this afternoon/evening.
Winds increase from the west today, a bit gusty across the mountains at times. Possibly gusting to 20kts.
Fog possible again overnight, especially for any areas that may see rain today.
Forecast confidence is average.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1040 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Thursday. Cooler and drier weather returns by the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1040 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Potential thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
Most of the remaining few morning showers have moved out of the area at this time. Ample cloud cover persists along and west of the Blue Ridge, while some larger breaks in the clouds are present over the Foothills and Piedmont. Expecting a decreasing trend in cloud cover for the next few hours, before coming back in with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Morning sounding at RNK showed west to northwesterly winds near the surface and aloft, so confidence is still lower on storm coverage at this time, with westerly flow limiting storm potential. No changes made to the forecast for this morning update, aside from blending in current observations.
Previous discussion below...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...
Upper wave responsible for the rain/storms yesterday will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and weak ridging builds overhead. Will see an increase in westerly winds behind the departing wave. Still a bit of uncertainty on storm coverage today with the upper ridging and westerly flow that will be in place, which tends to suppress storm development. HRRR, NAM, and multiple renditions of the WRF all indicate very spotty coverage today as well. With this is mind, kept the PoPs highest over the western mountains really decreased chances east of the mountains. May have late development as the westerly wind relaxes late this evening, but will begin to lose instability by that point as we lose daytime heating. However, any storm that is able to develop will have the potential for damaging winds, especially with modeled DCAPE over 1000 J/kg by the mid- afternoon.
Expecting any convection to quickly diminish after sunset and may have areas of fog develop again tonight. Low a bit warmer in the mid to low 60s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing flash flood threat - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms
Mid-level troughing deepens on Wednesday ahead of a frontal passage on Thursday. Both days will feature showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. Due to the antecedent conditions and multiple consecutive days of convective showers and storms, the threat for flash flooding will increase through the week. High rainfall rates are possible within any storms that form due to the above normal PWATs. There is potential for thunderstorms to exhibit severe characteristics, especially during the peak heating periods of each afternoon. Greatest threats will be damaging winds or large hail.
An embedded shortwave rotating through a broader trough will continue the pattern of thunderstorms and rainshowers on Friday as well. Temperatures will be around normal or just below thanks to cloud cover, the cooling effects of showers and storms, and frontal passage on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures cool off - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues
Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 mb heights. No particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now, enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday dry.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...
Still a few areas of patchy fog this morning, but lingering cloud cover has prevented more widespread fog.
Any fog remaining will likely erode by 13z. Ceilings will be variable through the next couple of hours, but improve to VFR for much of the area by later this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon, with the best coverage over the mountains. Therefore, have introduced a period of thunder for BCB/BLF/LWB for a few hours this afternoon/evening.
Winds increase from the west today, a bit gusty across the mountains at times. Possibly gusting to 20kts.
Fog possible again overnight, especially for any areas that may see rain today.
Forecast confidence is average.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWB GREENBRIER VALLEY,WV | 17 sm | 52 min | WSW 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.91 |
Blacksburg, VA,
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