Friday, May24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Union, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:31PM Friday May 24, 2019 9:17 PM EDT (01:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union, WV
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location: 37.62, -80.47     debug

Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 250032
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
832 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

A weak backdoor cold front will sag southward into the virginia
and north carolina piedmont through tonight. This front may
spark scattered thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. Continued
warm and humid weather for the weekend, with little change in
the weather pattern is expected through Wednesday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 830 pm edt Friday...

upper support remains lacking for much in the way of deep
convection this evening espcly given building heights aloft and
little shortwave energy under the upper ridge. However still
enough weak low level moisture convergence near the weak
backdoor front to the northwest to spark isolated coverage
espcly within an axis of very high instability over western
sections early this evening. Thus expect any of this residual
coverage to remain confined mostly to the far west where aided
by weak northwest flow into the ridges. Any showers heading
farther east should get clipped by lingering downslope but
appears some clouds will continue to spill into the east through
midnight or so. Otherwise expect the onset of nocturnal cooling
to finally help any isolated showers and leftover cumulus to
fade in the next few hours before the weak front dips back to
the southwest by morning. May also see some patchy fog espcly
mountain valleys within the high dewpoint airmass so keeping in
mention. Lows mostly in the 60s with the cooler readings over
the north where drier air along with clearing should allow
values to dip closer to 60 near the i-64 corridor.

Previous discussion as of 321 pm edt Friday...

radar mosaic and visible satellite show a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms in central western WV along a weak nw-se
convergence axis from near columbus oh to west of lewisburg wv.

This boundary may also be being reinforced by local outflow left
behind from storms last night and rains which fell overnight.

Air mass is moderately unstable areawide given the very warm and
humid conditions, with little to no convective inhibition and
surface-based capes 2000-3000 j kg common. Isolated to widely
scattered storms will remain possible at least into our
southeast WV counties, potentially as far eastward as
blacksburg. Further east and south, westerly non-convergent
winds will make it difficult for any showers or storms to
develop despite an otherwise favorably warm humid and unstable
air mass. Possible one or two storms may reach strong levels
with gusty winds, but severe isn't expected in light of shear
profiles supporting pulse type updrafts. While individual cells
will move east-southeast, the cluster of storms themselves will
tend to shift propagate northeastward through sunset. Threat for
any showers or storms after 9 pm is nil.

Otherwise, anomalous upper-level ridge analyzed over the deep
south into the ohio valley will build eastward atop the forecast
area through this evening overnight. A backdoor front - mostly
a moisture boundary now over northern va into the tidewater md
eastern shore areas - will tend to sag southward this evening
into the carolinas and blue ridge, with northerly northeast
surface flow across our northeast eastern counties. This should
be also something of a brief reprieve from dewpoints in the mid-
upper 60s, as dewpoints behind the current backdoor front are
about 10 degrees lower. So some dry air advection should filter
into the piedmont with upper 50s-low 60s dewpoints for tonight,
while remaining rather humid into the nc foothills northward
into the va WV mountains. Areas of patchy fog restricted to the
river valleys in the western mountains.

As we begin the memorial day weekend Saturday, we'll again be
turning quite warm and humid with heat indices rising into the
low 90s across the piedmont. In response to weak disturbances
aloft across the midwest central plains, the upper-level ridge
axis will tend to shift eastward off the atlantic coast and
flatten somewhat. This shift should allow for somewhat - still
pretty weak - mid upper level west-southwest winds to brush our
area. Model guidance shows more consistency in showing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms in the heat of the day, with sources
of lift tomorrow primarily from convergence along the blue
ridge, where residual east southeast flow associated with
tonight's backdoor front will clash with west-southwest winds
west of the blue ridge. A similar instability profile is
expected Saturday as today - in the 2000-3000 j kg range, with
strong heating leading to downdraft capes also around 1000-1200
j kg. And the stronger mid-upper level winds - about 30 kts
through a deep depth of atmosphere, contributing to deep layer
shear of 30-35 kts - could support loosely-organized multicells
as opposed to pulse storms. Think a greater coverage of strong
storms, perhaps a few severe, are possible Saturday afternoon
though timing when storms may start is in some question. This is
generally reflected by the nam-3km guidance, the nam-12 and the
coarser resolution broad-brushed QPF seen in the gfs. SPC has
also extended the marginal risk area into the northern half of
the forecast area, from roughly bluefield to brookneal
northward. It wouldn't shock me if isolated strong to locally
severe storms unfold into northern nc either, but the flow aloft
is somewhat weaker here compared to locales further north and
west. Strong to isolated severe storms would be capable of
primarily gusty to locally damaging winds with the inverted-v
profile in model soundings and the high dcapes supporting
efficient downdrafts. Threat for hail is mitigated by the very
warm temperature profiles and high freezing levels, and it would
take a particularly strong storm or supercell to produce that
and the shear profile doesn't support that potential.

We would ask those with outdoor plans Saturday to stay tuned to
the latest forecasts and will be messaging this in the
hazardous weather outlook.

Should see highs again top out in the 80s to locally a few spot

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
As of 321 pm edt Friday...

wavering front will exist near the area through the end of memorial
day weekend as a series of upper shortwaves ride along it from the
middle of the country into the mid-atlantic. Thereafter, expect some
amplification to the upper ridge over the southeast u.S.

This pattern will keep us on the cusp of receiving at least a small
threat of storms, but not out of the question to see a complex of
storms move from ohio and kentucky into the virginias Sunday night,
though model consensus with westerly flow and location of shortwaves
keeps the better coverage west of the mountains and north of our

Otherwise, no major changes to the previous forecast with temps
running about 5 to 12 degrees above normal, with the piedmont
hitting the 90s Sunday and Monday. Monday may be slightly cooler but
still above normal based on potential storm blowoff from upstream
convection dimming the sun.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 321 pm edt Friday...

upper ridge over the southeast u.S. Will dominate the pattern early
this period with Tuesday looking to be the hottest day with high
temps running from the mid 80s to near 90 in the mountains, to lower
to mid 90s in the foothills piedmont and roanoke shenandoah

Should be well capped most areas Tuesday so not seeing much threat
of storms outside an isolated mountain storm in WV or western nc.

Wednesday the ridge starts to get squashed to the southeast as upper
trough digs across the upper midwest great lakes. Still appears very
warm hot for most but should see an uptick in storms firing in the
afternoon evening across the mountains foothills. Still only slight
to low chance pops. Highs will be in the 80s in the mountains, to
lower to mid 90s east of the blue ridge. At present humidity
levels dewpoints should preclude any heat index issues, but could
approach 100 in the piedmont Tuesday afternoon for an hour or two.

Surface front shifts toward the area Thursday with a better chance
of showers and storms, though the main dynamics jet stay north of
the area. With heat abating, should see temps cooler. Storms may be
strong given how we heat up prior to the frontal passage, so more
energy to work with. Still only expecting isolated to scattered
storms with best coverage in the mountains. Temps drop back to upper
70s to lower 80s in the mountains, to mid 80s to around 900 east for
highs Thursday.

By Friday, models show zonal flow with front pushing off the coast
and high pressure building in from the ohio and tennessee valleys.

Temps will be closer to normal for the end of may with 70s in the
mountains, to lower to mid 80s east.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 735 pm edt Friday...

vfr conditions will continue into tonight. An isolated shower
is possible for the next couple of hours in western mountains.

Any convection will diminish with the lose of solar heating.

Otherwise, expect some patchy ifr-vlifr fog in the mountain
river valleys overnight into Saturday morning. Threat for river
valley fog in the east piedmont will be mitigated by a backdoor
front that should shift winds to east with lower dewpoints
overnight. Northwest winds 6-10 kts with gusts to 20 kts
through sunset, then winds become light and variable overnight.

After morning fog and low clouds burn off,VFR conditions
should return Saturday morning. Scattered MVFR showers and
thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon especially across
the higher terrain. Winds will be southerly in the piedmont
around 4-7kts, while in the mountains southwest winds around
3-6 kts expected.

Forecast confidence in aviation elements and flight categories
is moderate to high; but is lower on thunderstorm potential.

Extended aviation discussion...

showers and thunderstorms may become more numerous into Saturday
evening and shift eastward off the blue ridge. A few which
develop may become strong with lightning, brief ifr lower vsby
and localized gusty winds.VFR should mainly prevail outside of

OtherwiseVFR conditions are expected across the region into
early next week as high pressure offshore maintains a hot humid
airmass across the region. Exception is with evening overnight
fog but confidence low on development attm. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms resulting in brief sub-VFR conditions are
also possible Sunday in the west, and early next week across
most of the mountains, but more isolated coverage for Monday
into Tuesday. Isolated convections possible in the western
mountains on Wednesday.

As of 815 pm edt Friday...

a new record high temperature of 85 degrees was set at
blacksburg virginia today, while the old record of 92 degrees
was tied at roanoke. Please see the wbcrerrnk product for added

High temperatures will be close to records at few climate sites
Saturday through Sunday. The * shows records that may be tied
or broken based on the current forecast.

May 25th record highs:
bluefield - 87 in 1953
danville - 96 in 1933
lynchburg - 93 in 1936
roanoke - 94 in 1953
blacksburg - 89 in 1953
may 26th record highs:
bluefield - 88 in 1955
danville - 98 in 1965
lynchburg - 95 in 1936
roanoke - 95 in 1941
blacksburg - 85 in 2010 *

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... Al
near term... Al jh
short term... Wp
long term... Wp
aviation... Al kk
climate... AMS jh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lewisburg / Greenbrier, WV18 mi43 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1023 hPa

Wind History from LWB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW7W3NW10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW8SW11
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6CalmS5CalmS4S5CalmE6SE5SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.