Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Union, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:11PM Friday November 16, 2018 5:22 PM EST (22:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:56PMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union, WV
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location: 37.62, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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Fxus61 krnk 162000
afdrnk
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
300 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast along the new england
coast tonight. A cold front will cross the great lakes and ohio
valley tonight and Saturday, approaches the mid atlantic region
on Sunday and moves through late Sunday night. High pressure
will follow for Monday and Tuesday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 300 pm est Friday...

high pressure will build east across our region tonight into
Saturday. Upper low will push east into the atlantic ocean tonight
as a great lakes shortwave travels eastward into Saturday.

A layer of stratus associated with the shortwave crossing the great
lakes will bank up clouds against the western slopes of the
appalachians this evening into tonight under the subsidence
inversion. Expecting a larger spread in temperatures between valleys
and ridges tonight with winds decoupling and good radiational
conditions in all but the far western mountains. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 20s in the mountains to the mid 30s
in the piedmont.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft around a broad trof over eastern canada
will keep quiet weather across the appalachians Saturday. Under
plenty of sunshine, high temperatures Saturday will vary from
the lower 40s in the northwest mountains to the mid 50s in the
piedmont.

Confidence is average for all elements.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm est Friday...

during this portion of the forecast, an broad upper low will be
positioned over central quebec. Northwest flow associated with this
trough will be positioned across our region. Within this flow a weak
cold front is expected to move into the area late Sunday night and
Monday. This front will encounter an area of dry surface high
pressure situated over the region. The result will be a front that
brings only limited shallow moisture with it, with at best some
isolated upslope rain snow showers across portions of southeast west
virginia. Increased northwest flow behind the front will allow for a
continuation of isolated upslope rain snow showers across southeast
west virginia, neighboring sections of southwest virginia, and south
into the northern mountains of north carolina on Monday night.

The remainder of the forecast area is expected to be precipitation-
free with cloud cover limited to areas primarily along and west of
the crest of the blue ridge. The european solution is a bit more
robust on the extent of the precipitation eastward into parts of of
the piedmont near the james river basin. At this time, will hold on
any light rain inclusion here with this solution being an outlier.

However, it is something to monitor for its potential trend among
other solutions.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start near
normal and trend to reading about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Forecast confidence in this portion of the forecast is moderate to
high. The biggest question is how accurate is the european solution
with its small chance of precipitation across portions of the
piedmont Monday night.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 230 pm est Friday...

this portion of the forecast continue the trend of little if any
precipitation forecast for the region. The southeast canadian high
is expected to be shunted eastward in response to upper level
ridging shifting eastward through central conus. By thanksgiving
day, the center of the ridge is expected to be centered over the
area. The center of the ridge will start to shift east of the area
on Friday, in response to the approach of a shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front around the mississippi valley.

The resultant forecast for our region is residual upslope rain snow
showers across western portions of the area on Tuesday. After that
point, the forecast is dry through at least Thursday night.

Temperatures will be coolest on Wednesday with readings averaging 5
degrees below normal. By Friday, temperatures return to near normal.

There is a question on Friday as to whether or not any precipitation
starts working its way into the far southwestern portion of the area
ahead of the approaching cold front to the west. Those chances
increase Friday night according to both the european and canadian
solutions as they merge both the front and a southern stream low
skirting the gulf coast states. The GFS keeps these two systems as
separate entities, and thus, neither a major weather influence for
our region.

Forecast confidence for this portion of the forecast is moderate.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
As of 1240 pm est Friday...

scattered to bkn MVFR clouds in the mountains will erode as
high pressure building into our region. After a brief break with
vfr conditions in the mountains late this afternoon, a shortwave
crossing the great lakes will bring a shallow layer of ifr to
lifr clouds against the west slopes of the appalachians after
00z 7pm. Moderate confidence that low ceilings at klwb and kblf
will continue overnight into Saturday morning. Morning low
clouds will lift by late morning, returning most locations to
vfr by Saturday afternoon.

Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 knots
overnight into Saturday.

Confidence average for all elements.

Extended discussion...

vfr conditions with a mostly clear sky will return across the
region for the weekend. Models suggest a chance for MVFR
ceilings in southeast west virginia Sunday night but the
probability for anything lower than MVFR is low. Drier weather
will prevail Monday into Wednesday.

Equipment
The observation from the blacksburg automated weather observing
system (kbcb) is working.

Rnk watches warnings advisories
Va... None.

Nc... None.

Wv... None.

Synopsis... AMS kk
near term... Kk
short term... Ds
long term... Ds
aviation... AMS kk
equipment... Ams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lewisburg / Greenbrier, WV18 mi47 minWSW 610.00 miFair39°F31°F73%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from LWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmW3W4NW9
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W6W7W7W9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE6E3E6SE5NE4E6SE3E10
G14
E4E5E6CalmNE6NE5NE3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmNE3
2 days agoCalmW7W5NW3CalmNW4CalmW3NW6W4W4CalmN4CalmCalmW3SW3NW3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.